由于劳动力需求走软抑制了薪资涨幅，美国第四季度劳动力成本增速意外放缓，创下四年半以来最小年 度增幅。 责任编辑：郭明煜 由于劳动力需求走软抑制了薪资涨幅，美国第四季度劳动力成本增速意外放缓，创下四年半以来最小年 度增幅。 美国劳工部劳工统计局周二公布，衡量劳动力成本最全面指标 ——就业成本指数（ECI）上季度环比 上涨0.7%，低于第三季度的 0.8%。路透社调查经济学家此前预期为增长 0.8%。 美国劳工部劳工统计局周二公布，衡量劳动力成本最全面指标 ——就业成本指数（ECI）上季度环比 上涨0.7%，低于第三季度的 0.8%。路透社调查经济学家此前预期为增长 0.8%。 截至 12 月的 12 个月里，劳动力成本同比上涨3.4%，为 2021 年第二季度以来最小涨幅；截至 9 月的年 度涨幅为 3.5%。 政策制定者将就业成本指数视为衡量劳动力市场松紧程度和核心通胀的较佳预测指标之一，因为该指数 已对就业结构和岗位质量变化做出调整。 劳动力市场表现疲软正在抑制薪资增长。美国政府上周公布，12 月每个失业人员对应0.87 个职位空 缺，低于 11 月的 0.89，一年前该比例约为 1.08。 尽管薪资压力有 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened mixed, with the Dow Jones up by 0.94%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down by 0.18% and 0.72%, respectively [1] - Major tech stocks experienced more declines than gains, with Oracle's stock dropping as much as 16%, resulting in a market cap loss of approximately $102 billion (around 72 billion RMB) [3] - Other tech stocks such as Nvidia and AMD fell over 3%, while Intel dropped over 2%, and Tesla, Apple, and Google were down more than 1% [3] Oracle's Performance - Oracle's second-quarter earnings report showed that both revenue and cloud business income fell short of market expectations, leading to a significant drop in stock price [3] - As of the report, Oracle's stock was down 13.24%, with a market capitalization of $551.6 billion [4] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective decline, with Bitcoin falling below the $90,000 mark, currently priced at $89,897.3, reflecting a 2.35% decrease over the past 24 hours [7][8] - Over 150,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours due to the market downturn [7] Oil Prices - Both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices dropped nearly 2% [5] U.S. Labor Market and Federal Reserve Actions - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 0.8% increase in the Employment Cost Index for Q3, indicating a slowdown in labor demand and slow growth in worker income [8] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.50% and 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [9] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a single expected rate cut in 2026, which analysts view as potentially misleading and subject to change based on labor market conditions [11] - The Fed will initiate a "mini QE" by purchasing approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills starting December 12, aimed at addressing market liquidity rather than lowering long-term rates [12]

Core Insights - The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the third quarter of this year increased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a slowdown in the growth rate compared to the second quarter, reflecting weakened labor demand and slow wage growth in the U.S. job market [1] - Year-on-year, the ECI rose by 3.5%, marking the smallest increase since the second quarter of 2021 [1] - Analysts note that U.S. employers are generally slowing down their hiring pace, with some companies initiating layoffs [1] Labor Market Trends - Ben Ayers, a senior economist at Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company, predicts that with a decrease in resignation rates and weakened labor demand expected in the second half of 2025, wage growth will further decelerate by 2026 [1] - Matthew Martin, an economist at Oxford Economics, anticipates that the pace of wage growth will continue to slow in the coming quarters, leading to a decline in job-seeker confidence in the labor market [1] Job Vacancies - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of job vacancies in October 2025 was 7.67 million, slightly above the 7.615 million from the same month last year and the 7.658 million in September, indicating a continued cooling trend in the U.S. job market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The employment cost index in the U.S. rose by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, indicating a slowdown in labor demand and slow growth in worker income [1] Group 1: Employment Cost Index - The employment cost index increased by 0.8% in Q3, a deceleration compared to Q2 [1] - Year-on-year, the index rose by 3.5%, marking the smallest increase since Q2 2021 [1] Group 2: Labor Market Trends - Companies are generally slowing down their hiring pace, with some initiating layoffs [1] - The resignation rate is decreasing, and labor demand is expected to weaken further in the second half of 2025, leading to anticipated wage growth slowdown in 2026 [1] - Job vacancies in October were reported at 7.67 million, slightly above the 7.615 million from the previous year and 7.658 million in September, indicating a continued cooling trend in the labor market [1]

Group 1 - The third quarter employment cost index increased by 0.8%, which is lower than the expected 0.9% and marks a decrease from the previous quarters that were consistently at 0.9% [1] - This is the lowest increase since the second quarter of 2021, indicating a potential easing in employment costs compared to the elevated levels seen in the past [2] - The all-time high for the employment cost index was 1.3% in the second quarter of 2022, coinciding with a period of high inflation at 9.1% [2] Group 2 - The current yield on the 10-year note is hovering around 4.20%, with potential for closing at 4.18% or higher, which would represent a three-month high yield close [3] - The 2-year yield is currently at 3.62%, remaining unchanged and also reflecting a one-month high yield close [3] - There is a suggestion that the long end of the yield curve is experiencing upward pressure, potentially leading to a steepening of the curve [5] Group 3 - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data indicates that 63% of the releases since January 2024 have been higher than the current number, suggesting a strong labor market [4] - The current metrics do not align with the easing observed in the market, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [4] - The Federal Reserve's target inflation rate of 2% is still far from being achieved, indicating ongoing challenges in the economic landscape [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the October CPI report will not be released, with the November CPI report scheduled for December 18 [1] - The October real earnings report will also be canceled, with the November real earnings report to be published on December 18 [1] - The third-quarter employment cost index will be released on December 10 [1]