中新社华盛顿1月9日电 (记者陈孟统)美国劳工部9日发布数据称，美国2025年12月新增5万个非农就业岗 位，失业率为4.4%，环比下降0.2个百分点。 数据显示，美国2025年全年非农就业新增58.4万人，月均增加4.9万人，低于2024年新增200万人、月均 增加16.8万人的水平。 《华尔街日报》分析称，上述数据表明美国2025年12月就业增速依然低迷，为美国劳动力市场明显降温 的一年画上句号。 具体行业来看，2025年12月的就业增长主要来自餐饮服务业、医疗保健业和社会援助领域，零售业就业 出现下降。2025年餐饮服务业月均新增就业1.2万人，与2024年的月均1.1万人大体相当。医疗保健业 2025年月均新增就业3.4万人，低于2024年的5.6万人。 在薪资增长方面，美国去年12月私营部门非农员工平均时薪上涨12美分，至37.02美元，同比增长 3.8%。 美联社援引经济学家的观点认为，2025年美国就业增长的节奏明显放缓，但也显示出"趋于稳定"的信 号，这将让美联储不急于进一步降息。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 美国劳工部在这份报告中同时修订2025年10月和11月的非农就业数据：2025年 ...

每经AI快讯，12月17日，欧盟统计局数据显示，欧元区第三季度薪资较上年同期增长3.0%，欧元区第 三季度劳工成本较上年同期增加3.3%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本汽车行业工会负责人表示，他担心如果央行如市场普遍预期在周五上调基准利 率，此举可能会影响企业在下一财年提高工资的能力。日本汽车工会联合会主席Akihiro Kaneko周二在 接受采访时表示："如果日本央行的决定导致日元在周五后大幅升值，可能会影响企业信心。"他补充 说："剧烈的汇率波动会使出口商更难以实行涨薪，因为预期利润会消失。"同时他指出，如果变动温 和，企业应该能够适应。 Kaneko领导的工会上周公布了将于3月达到高潮的工资谈判的政策草案，声明将寻求每月最低12,000日 元(77.50美元)的基本工资增长。通过将该数字作为最低标准而非参考点，该工会的姿态较去年略有加 强。去年该工会争取到了9,520日元或3.58%的加薪，为1996年以来的最高水平。 与其他工会一样，Kaneko的组织也将在接下来的薪酬谈判中重点关注缩小大公司与小公司之间的工资 差距。根据9月发布的工会统计数据，在上一轮谈判中，员工人数少于300人的公司员工平均工资增长了 8,688日元，远低于员工人数在3000人及以上的大公司赢得的12,831日元。 新的工资目标表明，尽管包括美国更高关税在内的不利因素不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's report indicates strong wage growth momentum despite U.S. tariffs, which is a key consideration for the central bank's interest rate hike this week [1][2]. Group 1: Wage Growth - The Bank of Japan states that most reports from headquarters and branches indicate that companies expect wage increases for the fiscal year 2026 to be consistent with the high wage growth achieved in fiscal year 2025 [1][2]. - The central bank's governor, Kazuo Ueda, mentioned earlier this month that the bank will actively collect wage growth data to make appropriate decisions regarding interest rate hikes at the meeting ending this Friday [1][2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The positive findings in the report make it easier for Governor Ueda to justify raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, a decision anticipated by 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg [1][2]. - According to overnight swap market pricing, traders estimate a 94% probability of an interest rate hike this week [1][2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Sentiment - On Monday, the yen outperformed other G-10 currencies as investors increased bets on the Bank of Japan raising interest rates later this week, with the yen rising 0.4% to 155.15 yen per dollar as of 5:38 PM Tokyo time [1][2]. - The quarterly Tankan survey released by the Bank of Japan shows that confidence among large manufacturers has reached a four-year high, reinforcing market expectations for a rate hike [1][2]. - The Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hirokazu Matsuno, stated that the specific implementation of monetary policy should be decided by the Bank of Japan [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that the worst is over, projecting the S&P 500 index to rise by 14% to 7800 points by 2026 [1] Economic and Corporate Earnings Outlook - Corporate earnings expectations have rebounded significantly, with the S&P 500 earnings revision breadth dropping to -25% in April and currently recovering to around +15% [1] - Slowing wage growth provides room for expansion in corporate profit margins [1] - Consumer demand is expected to accelerate, with companies demonstrating stronger pricing power [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December, the team anticipates two additional rate cuts by 2026 [1] Market Sectors with Growth Potential - Non-essential consumer goods stocks are expected to perform well, despite the firm maintaining a "underweight" rating on this sector for four years [1] - Small-cap stocks are likely to benefit from cyclical trends and declining interest rates [1] - Financial stocks may see improved growth in commercial and industrial loans next year, which would be favorable for the banking sector; additionally, the earnings revisions, valuations, and holdings in financial stocks are considered attractive [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's largest labor union, UA Zensen, plans to negotiate for a wage increase in the upcoming year that matches this year's level, targeting a total wage growth of 6% [1] Group 1: Wage Negotiation Plans - UA Zensen aims for a 4% increase in base wages during the wage negotiations ending in March next year, following a successful 4.75% wage increase achieved this year [1] - The union also plans to request an additional 1% wage increase for companies with significant wage disparities compared to their peers [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring wage trends as a key factor in determining the timing of future interest rate hikes, indicating heightened market attention on the upcoming wage negotiations [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has stated that he is watching the "initial momentum" of annual salary negotiations, suggesting that the union's announcement may signal early signs of this momentum [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. job market shows signs of stabilization after two months of decline, but overall labor demand continues to slow, and wage growth remains stagnant, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's decision on potential rate cuts in December [1][6]. Employment Data - In October, ADP reported an increase of 42,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the expected 30,000 and reversing the previous month's revised loss of 32,000 jobs [1][4]. - The job growth in October reflects a cautious hiring trend among businesses, with 32,000 jobs added in the service sector and 9,000 in the goods-producing sector [4][6]. Wage Growth - Wage growth has remained stable over the past year, indicating a new balance in the labor market supply and demand, alleviating previous post-pandemic tensions [6]. Corporate Layoffs - Major companies like Amazon, Starbucks, and Target have announced significant layoffs, raising concerns about the employment outlook despite initial claims for unemployment benefits remaining low [3][6]. Federal Reserve Policy - Following two consecutive rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted a very slow cooling of the labor market, indicating uncertainty regarding further rate cuts in December [6]. - The moderate employment data provides mixed signals for the Fed, as it alleviates fears of rapid deterioration while highlighting the need for careful consideration of economic trends due to slowing demand and stagnant wage growth [6].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that consumer spending is either flat or declining, as wages have not kept pace with rising prices [1] Group 1 - Consumer spending is showing signs of stagnation or decrease [1] - Many households are experiencing a mismatch between wage growth and inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey emphasizes that the central bank should not lower interest rates too quickly or excessively, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [1] Economic Outlook - Inflation is not expected to rebound persistently, with different levels of price and wage pressures observed [1] - Wage growth is projected to slow to just below 4% by the end of the year, reflecting a cooling labor market [1] - There is an increased focus on the risks of second-round effects from inflation, particularly concerning food and energy prices, which are significant for consumers [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are exhibiting more caution than previously anticipated, which may impact overall economic activity [1] - The risks of economic activity declining are slightly elevated, suggesting potential challenges ahead for growth [1] Inflation Targeting - The central bank is committed to taking all necessary measures to achieve a 2% inflation target, indicating a strong focus on maintaining price stability [1]

Group 1 - Japan's nominal wages in June increased by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the fastest growth in four months, despite being below economists' expectations of 3.1% [1][3] - The Bank of Japan is considering potential interest rate hikes in the coming months, with over 40% of analysts predicting action in the October policy meeting [3][4] - The strong wage data reflects the results of this year's annual wage negotiations, with approximately 70% of wage increases already implemented by mid-June [3][4] Group 2 - Despite strong nominal wage growth, real wages have declined by 1.3% due to rising inflation, with the core inflation rate reaching 3.3% in June [4][5] - The ongoing inflation is expected to suppress consumer spending, leading to anticipated weak economic growth in the second quarter [4] - Long-term labor shortages are expected to continue exerting upward pressure on wages, although U.S. trade policies pose risks to corporate profit margins and wage growth capabilities [5]