英国国家统计局周二表示，2025年最后三个月，剔除奖金后的年度工资增长率降至4.2%，低于前一年 同期的水平。英国央行正在关注薪资情况，以此作为衡量英国高于目标水平的通胀状况会持续多久的一 个指标。周一，投资者几乎完全定价英国央行将在今年年底前两次降息25个基点的预期，因为对通胀的 担忧已让位于对就业市场和整体经济的忧虑。 ...

数据显示，今年第四季度薪酬预计将同比上涨2.7%，高于第三季度的2.6%。尽管这一增速远低于2024 年逾5%的峰值，但仍强于上半年的预测值。 欧洲央行在一份声明中表示："年内薪资路径的上升，与2024年发放但2025年未发放的大额一次性付款 所产生的机械性下行效应逐步消散有关。这些机械性影响预计将在2026年内基本消失。" 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行周三发布的薪资追踪指标显示，欧元区薪资增长预计将在下半年加快步 伐，这支持了央行关于利率可以保持稳定的判断。 自去年6月以来一直维持利率不变的欧洲央行，将薪资列为通胀上行的潜在风险，主要是由于其对服务 业价格具有传导影响。 上周四，欧洲央行如期维持利率不变，并未释放下一步政策走向的明确信号，强化了市场对货币政策在 一段时间内保持稳定的预期。当前欧元区经济增长相对稳健、通胀接近目标水平，为政策"观望"提供了 空间。 拉加德称目前通胀风险"总体均衡"。一方面，能源价格持续上行、全球供应链进一步碎片化、关键原材 料供应受限、以及国防和基础设施支出计划，都可能在中期推高通胀;另一方面，关税可能削弱欧元区 出口需求，产能过剩国家扩大对欧出口，以及欧元走强和金融市场波动加 ...

由于劳动力需求走软抑制了薪资涨幅，美国第四季度劳动力成本增速意外放缓，创下四年半以来最小年 度增幅。 责任编辑：郭明煜 由于劳动力需求走软抑制了薪资涨幅，美国第四季度劳动力成本增速意外放缓，创下四年半以来最小年 度增幅。 美国劳工部劳工统计局周二公布，衡量劳动力成本最全面指标 ——就业成本指数（ECI）上季度环比 上涨0.7%，低于第三季度的 0.8%。路透社调查经济学家此前预期为增长 0.8%。 美国劳工部劳工统计局周二公布，衡量劳动力成本最全面指标 ——就业成本指数（ECI）上季度环比 上涨0.7%，低于第三季度的 0.8%。路透社调查经济学家此前预期为增长 0.8%。 截至 12 月的 12 个月里，劳动力成本同比上涨3.4%，为 2021 年第二季度以来最小涨幅；截至 9 月的年 度涨幅为 3.5%。 政策制定者将就业成本指数视为衡量劳动力市场松紧程度和核心通胀的较佳预测指标之一，因为该指数 已对就业结构和岗位质量变化做出调整。 劳动力市场表现疲软正在抑制薪资增长。美国政府上周公布，12 月每个失业人员对应0.87 个职位空 缺，低于 11 月的 0.89，一年前该比例约为 1.08。 尽管薪资压力有 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market showed signs of cooling in 2025, with a notable slowdown in job growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in December, down by 0.2 percentage points month-over-month [1] - In December 2025, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, with an annual total of 584,000 jobs added for the year, averaging 49,000 jobs per month, which is significantly lower than the 2 million jobs added in 2024, averaging 168,000 jobs per month [1] - The employment growth in December 2025 was primarily driven by the restaurant services, healthcare, and social assistance sectors, while retail employment saw a decline [1] Group 2 - The average hourly wage for private sector non-farm employees increased by $0.12 to $37.02 in December, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The U.S. Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for October and November 2025, indicating a downward adjustment of job losses from 105,000 to 173,000 in October and a reduction in job gains from 64,000 to 56,000 in November, totaling a decrease of 76,000 jobs over the two months [1] - Economists suggest that while the pace of job growth in 2025 has slowed, it also signals a trend towards stability, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rate cuts [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Eurozone experienced a year-on-year increase in wages and labor costs in the third quarter, with wages rising by 3.0% and labor costs increasing by 3.3% compared to the same period last year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese automotive industry is concerned that a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan could impact companies' ability to raise wages in the next fiscal year, particularly if it leads to significant yen appreciation, which may affect exporter confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Wage Negotiations and Economic Impact - The automotive union plans to seek a minimum monthly wage increase of 12,000 yen (approximately $77.50), which represents a stronger stance compared to last year's increase of 9,520 yen or 3.58%, the highest since 1996 [2][3]. - The union's focus will also be on narrowing the wage gap between large and small companies, as smaller firms saw an average wage increase of 8,688 yen, significantly lower than the 12,831 yen increase for larger firms [2][3]. - The union leader expressed that the upcoming wage negotiations could be influenced by the government's tax policies, particularly if large companies are excluded from tax incentives aimed at supporting wage increases [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Policy Responses - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the policy interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, with economists predicting a gradual tightening of policy every six months, potentially reaching a terminal rate of 1.25% [1][2]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on automotive manufacturers is significant, with an estimated total impact of 2.5 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending in March, leading to a nearly 20% reduction in car prices in North America earlier this year [3]. - The Japanese government has introduced a substantial economic package, including approximately 980 billion yen aimed at promoting wage growth, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's report indicates strong wage growth momentum despite U.S. tariffs, which is a key consideration for the central bank's interest rate hike this week [1][2]. Group 1: Wage Growth - The Bank of Japan states that most reports from headquarters and branches indicate that companies expect wage increases for the fiscal year 2026 to be consistent with the high wage growth achieved in fiscal year 2025 [1][2]. - The central bank's governor, Kazuo Ueda, mentioned earlier this month that the bank will actively collect wage growth data to make appropriate decisions regarding interest rate hikes at the meeting ending this Friday [1][2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The positive findings in the report make it easier for Governor Ueda to justify raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, a decision anticipated by 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg [1][2]. - According to overnight swap market pricing, traders estimate a 94% probability of an interest rate hike this week [1][2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Sentiment - On Monday, the yen outperformed other G-10 currencies as investors increased bets on the Bank of Japan raising interest rates later this week, with the yen rising 0.4% to 155.15 yen per dollar as of 5:38 PM Tokyo time [1][2]. - The quarterly Tankan survey released by the Bank of Japan shows that confidence among large manufacturers has reached a four-year high, reinforcing market expectations for a rate hike [1][2]. - The Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hirokazu Matsuno, stated that the specific implementation of monetary policy should be decided by the Bank of Japan [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that the worst is over, projecting the S&P 500 index to rise by 14% to 7800 points by 2026 [1] Economic and Corporate Earnings Outlook - Corporate earnings expectations have rebounded significantly, with the S&P 500 earnings revision breadth dropping to -25% in April and currently recovering to around +15% [1] - Slowing wage growth provides room for expansion in corporate profit margins [1] - Consumer demand is expected to accelerate, with companies demonstrating stronger pricing power [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December, the team anticipates two additional rate cuts by 2026 [1] Market Sectors with Growth Potential - Non-essential consumer goods stocks are expected to perform well, despite the firm maintaining a "underweight" rating on this sector for four years [1] - Small-cap stocks are likely to benefit from cyclical trends and declining interest rates [1] - Financial stocks may see improved growth in commercial and industrial loans next year, which would be favorable for the banking sector; additionally, the earnings revisions, valuations, and holdings in financial stocks are considered attractive [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's largest labor union, UA Zensen, plans to negotiate for a wage increase in the upcoming year that matches this year's level, targeting a total wage growth of 6% [1] Group 1: Wage Negotiation Plans - UA Zensen aims for a 4% increase in base wages during the wage negotiations ending in March next year, following a successful 4.75% wage increase achieved this year [1] - The union also plans to request an additional 1% wage increase for companies with significant wage disparities compared to their peers [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring wage trends as a key factor in determining the timing of future interest rate hikes, indicating heightened market attention on the upcoming wage negotiations [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has stated that he is watching the "initial momentum" of annual salary negotiations, suggesting that the union's announcement may signal early signs of this momentum [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. job market shows signs of stabilization after two months of decline, but overall labor demand continues to slow, and wage growth remains stagnant, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's decision on potential rate cuts in December [1][6]. Employment Data - In October, ADP reported an increase of 42,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the expected 30,000 and reversing the previous month's revised loss of 32,000 jobs [1][4]. - The job growth in October reflects a cautious hiring trend among businesses, with 32,000 jobs added in the service sector and 9,000 in the goods-producing sector [4][6]. Wage Growth - Wage growth has remained stable over the past year, indicating a new balance in the labor market supply and demand, alleviating previous post-pandemic tensions [6]. Corporate Layoffs - Major companies like Amazon, Starbucks, and Target have announced significant layoffs, raising concerns about the employment outlook despite initial claims for unemployment benefits remaining low [3][6]. Federal Reserve Policy - Following two consecutive rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted a very slow cooling of the labor market, indicating uncertainty regarding further rate cuts in December [6]. - The moderate employment data provides mixed signals for the Fed, as it alleviates fears of rapid deterioration while highlighting the need for careful consideration of economic trends due to slowing demand and stagnant wage growth [6].