Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The urea futures market rebounded last week due to news stimulus, but there is no official confirmation. Fundamentally, there is limited rigid support, and the upside potential of the futures price is restricted. It is expected that the futures price will experience a correction [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics Since the New Year's Day holiday, the market has been weak, with poor order receipts and mostly low - price purchases. Recently, the futures have continued to rebound, the spot sentiment has improved, the purchasing rhythm has become smoother, and most quotes have risen [1][3][4] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - **Price and Volume**: By January 5th, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1,768 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 29th. The weekly trading volume last week was 13.1874 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146,800 tons; the open interest was 6.2529 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 331,500 tons [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The futures increase was greater than the spot increase last week, and the basis weakened. As of January 5th, the basis of the 05 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/ton. As of December 22nd, the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4 yuan/ton [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On January 5, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 12,376, a week - on - week increase of 1,626 [9]. 3.3 Urea Supply - **Production**: From December 25th to December 31st, the weekly urea production was 1.3591 million tons, an increase of 25,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%. The average daily production was 194,100 tons. It is expected that 3 enterprises will stop production and 5 will resume production in the next cycle. As of January 5th, the national daily urea production was 202,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57% [11]. - **Raw Materials**: Near the end of the year, coal mines are expected to reduce production, and coal prices are expected to be strong. The domestic LNG price decreased last week. The synthetic ammonia price increased, while the urea spot price decreased. The methanol spot price also decreased [13][14]. 3.4 Urea Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of January 2nd, the 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was quoted at 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Affected by environmental protection warnings, the compound fertilizer operating rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. It is expected that the environmental protection warnings may ease in mid - January, but the factories will gradually enter the holiday season [16]. - **Melamine**: From December 26th to January 2nd, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 47.65%, a decrease of 10.42 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate is expected to increase as the previously shut - down plants resume production [16]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2nd, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0192 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week. The port sample inventory was 172,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The port inventory is expected to rise [18]. 3.5 International Market - **Production and Tendering**: Iran has cut production, and the price center has moved up. India's NFL urea import tender opened on January 2nd, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons [20]. - **Prices**: As of January 2nd, most of the international urea prices showed an upward trend, with some exceptions for large - particle Chinese FOB prices [20][22].

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of urea are relatively strong, and there is support for the decline in the futures price. Although the urea futures price dropped on Monday, it is difficult for it to fall significantly under the support of gas restrictions, exports, and winter storage. During the roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices rose steadily during the week. Although high - price order transactions were limited, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and a strong willingness to hold prices. Since the weekend, prices have remained stable, and new order transactions are limited [3]. 2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price showed different trends each day. As of December 8, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,646 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 1. The weekly trading volume was 1,163.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86 million tons; the open interest was 712.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13 million tons. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17 yuan/ton. On December 8, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,526, a week - on - week increase of 3,589 [5][8]. 3. Urea Supply - side - Last week, urea weekly output decreased. From November 27 to December 3, the weekly output was 1.3851 billion tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%. Coal - based weekly output decreased slightly, and gas - based weekly output decreased by 9.26%. In the next cycle, the output is still expected to decrease mainly. On December 8, the national daily output of urea was 202,800 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57%. The price of动力煤 (steam coal) decreased, and the price of liquefied natural gas, synthetic ammonia, and methanol also declined [12][13][15]. 4. Urea Demand - side - As of December 5, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased. The compound fertilizer factory's new orders were few, and it mainly executed previous orders. The operating load continued to increase, and the finished - product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate was close to the historical high level, and the room for further increase in operation was limited. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine increased, but there was a risk of weak growth in the future. Urea inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to rise [17][19]. 5. International Market - International urea prices declined across the board this week. After the end of the Indian tender, the international urea market was mainly stable. The next round of tender is expected to start in January next year, and the next procurement cycle in the US is expected to be from January to February 2026. As of December 5, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in various regions decreased week - on - week [21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The urea market is in a narrow - range shock pattern. The recovery of urea maintenance devices has increased the daily output. Agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, but the increase in the start - up rate of compound fertilizers and the strengthening of other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin provide support. Against the background of high daily output and high inventory, the continuous upward momentum of urea is insufficient, and the reference range for the 01 contract is 1600 - 1700 [3]. Summary by Directory Market Changes - The weekly price center of urea has moved slightly upward. On November 21, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1654 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from last week, with a maximum of 1675 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1641 yuan/ton during the period. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1630 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton from last week, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The main - contract basis of urea has continuously strengthened, and on November 21, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 24 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 68) - (- 24) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea fluctuated in a narrow range, and on November 21, the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 75) - (- 70) yuan/ton [3][4][7]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of China's urea plants is 85.85%, an increase of 1.92 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 72.89%, unchanged from last week, and the daily average output of urea is 20.29 tons. Next week, some maintenance devices in Shanxi, Henan, Yunnan and other places are planned to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase slightly [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market is running stably. As of November 20, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi is 900 - 960 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as last week [3][14]. Demand - In the north, winter wheat is in the concentrated sowing period, with more than 50% sown in Shandong, nearly 30% in Henan, nearly 70% in Shanxi, nearly 40% in Jiangsu, nearly 70% in Hubei, more than 40% in Sichuan, and more than 30% in Chongqing. In the south, late rice is in the large - scale harvesting stage, with the harvest basically completed in Hunan and Jiangxi, about 30% in Zhejiang, and more than 50% in Guangxi. The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 34.61%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory is 65.48 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from last week. Recently, the start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased, and the speed of finished product destocking has slowed down. The support of other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin has strengthened [3][22]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 124.6 tons, a decrease of 3.7 tons from last week. Urea port inventory is 27.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts is 7183, totaling 14.366 tons, unchanged from last week [3][28].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the urea futures market showed a trend of first decline and then rise, with an overall increase. The spot market had a slow start in the first half - week, and the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders. In the second half - week, the factory orders were sufficient, and the prices stabilized. The overall market trading sentiment was lukewarm. - The supply of urea increased last week, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to rise next week. The high inventory level in recent five years restricts the upward space of urea prices. - The domestic demand is in a slack period, but the industrial demand has resilience, and the export to India and the Indian tender price provide support. The urea price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term with no obvious boost [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half - week, the domestic demand in the urea spot market was weak, and the upstream factories lowered their quotes. The situation of attracting orders at low prices was acceptable. In the second half - week, the factories had sufficient pending orders, and the quotes were stable. The market trading sentiment was lukewarm. Since the weekend, the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, but the market activity was low [3]. b) Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume last week was 1,025.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 479.45 million tons; the open interest was 614.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.92 million tons. Currently, the futures price fluctuates between 1,700 - 1,790 yuan/ton. - Last week, the increase of urea futures was stronger than that of the spot, and the basis weakened. As of August 18, the basis of the 01 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. - On August 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,573, a week - on - week decrease of 50 [6][8]. c) Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From August 7 - 13, the weekly output of urea was 1.3486 million tons, an increase of 20,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The average daily output was 192,700 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons week - on - week. Among them, the coal - based weekly output was 1.059 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22%; the gas - based weekly output was 289,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The output of small and medium - sized particles increased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the output of large - sized particles decreased by 8.50% week - on - week. - Next week, it is expected that 1 - 2 enterprises plan to stop production, and 3 - 5 enterprises will resume production. As of August 18, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 194,200 tons, and the operating rate was 82.69%. - In the raw material market, the coal supply was tight, which boosted the coal price. As of August 18, the quotation of Qinhuangdao steam - coal Q5500 was 697 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the price of anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng market remained flat at 900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas decreased last week. As of August 18, the benchmark price was 4,040 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. - Last week, the price of synthetic ammonia decreased. As of August 15, the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,180 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of urea decreased last week. The price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong was 480 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol increased. As of August 15, the quotation of methanol was 2,390 yuan/ton, and the price difference between methanol and urea was 690 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 55 yuan/ton [12][14][15]. d) Urea Demand - side - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat. As of August 15, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating load has continued to rise to the high level of the same period in history. The finished product inventory in the factory has been at a high level for several months. During the initial stage of autumn compound fertilizer production, there is no pressure for compound fertilizer factories to purchase raw materials. From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 43.48%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points from the previous week, and 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. - From August 8 - 14, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from the previous period, and 17.82 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, summer maintenance started, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The terminal panel furniture market is sluggish, affected by the real estate industry. - As of August 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%, and 520,200 tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous week [17][19]. e) International Market - After China started urea exports, the tight supply situation in the international urea market began to ease. Currently, the inventory in India is still low, and it is expected to start another import tender around September. The tender demand from India provides support for the global urea market. It is expected that China's exports will end in October, and Brazil's imports are expected to resume in September. - India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, targeting to purchase 2 million tons (1 million tons each for the east and west coasts). The bid closing date is September 2, the bid validity period is September 10, and the shipping date is October 31. - As of August 15, the FOB price of small - sized Chinese urea was 450 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - sized Chinese urea was 460 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton. The prices of other regions also showed different degrees of decline [20][21][23].