Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea production has slightly decreased recently, and there is a greater possibility of a slight increase in production considering short - term enterprise failures. Agricultural demand has weakened, but industrial demand is stable, supporting smooth urea shipments. The inventory of urea factories is at a low level, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to narrow. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1840 - 1880 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1851 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is - 32 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 157,223 lots, down 16,685 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 22,940, up 11,689. The exchange warehouse receipts are 9,662, up 955 [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1880 yuan/ton and 191 yuan/ton respectively, while those in Henan, Shandong and Anhui remained unchanged at 1860 yuan/ton, 1900 yuan/ton and 1870 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract basis is 49 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan.FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 622. and 752.5 dollars/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 169,000 tons, up 2,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is about about 700,5 tons, down 108, tons.The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.35%, down 3.84%; the daily output is about 210,80 tons, down 6,300 tons. The urea export volume is 110,000 tons, down 20%. The monthly output is 6, tons, down 2 tons [ ] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is %, up ; the melamine operating rate is 65.9%, up 6. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is yuan/ton, up 170 yuan.The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 444., tons, down 73, tons; the weekly output of melamine is 36, tons, up 3,700 tons [2] Industry News - As of April 1, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 536,000 tons, down 164,500 tons or 23.48% from the previous period. As of March 26, the port sample inventory was 169,000 tons, up 2,000 tons or 1.20%. The production of urea enterprises was 1,475,600 tons, down 43,800 tons or 2.88% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The output of urea in China has slightly decreased recently, and there is a possibility of a slight increase in output considering short - term enterprise failures. Agricultural demand for green - turning fertilizers has basically ended, while industrial demand from sectors such as compound fertilizers, boards, and melamine remains stable. Policy measures for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices have cooled market trading sentiment. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline last week, and industrial demand is rising. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1850 - 1900 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1874 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The main contract's position is 173908 lots, a decrease of 14640 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 34629, an increase of 1026. The exchange warehouse receipts are 8707, with no change [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui are 1870, 1860, 1900, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively, with no change in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui, and an increase of 10 yuan/ton in Jiangsu. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are 622.5 and 752.5 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 16.9 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 70.05 million tons, a decrease of 10.84 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.35%, a decrease of 3.84%; the daily output is 210800 tons, a decrease of 6300 tons. The urea export volume is 11 million tons, a decrease of 20%; the monthly output is 6035310 tons, a decrease of 254300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 51.24%, an increase of 1.27%; the operating rate of melamine is 65.98%, an increase of 6.67%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 2719 yuan/ton, an increase of 1707 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 444.13 million tons, a decrease of 73.86 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 36300 tons, an increase of 3700 tons [2] Industry News - As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 70.05 million tons, a decrease of 10.84 million tons from the previous period, a 13.40% decrease. As of March 26, the port inventory was 16.9 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons, a 1.20% increase. The output of urea production enterprises was 147.56 million tons, a decrease of 4.38 million tons from the previous period, a 2.88% decrease, and the capacity utilization rate was 88.35%, a decrease of 3.84% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1860 - 1910 yuan/ton in the short term [2] - Although reserve supplies are being released, most urea factories still have tight supplies, and the inventory of some factories is gradually decreasing. In the last stage of stockpiling, local factories actively releasing reserves may lead to a decline in urea enterprise inventory [2] - The market trading sentiment has cooled down under the multiple measures of price - guiding constraints and the release of reserve supplies [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1882 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 46 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 770 yuan/ton [2] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 188,548 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,155 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 35,655 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 8,707, with no change [2] Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui remain unchanged at 1870 yuan/ton, 1860 yuan/ton, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively; the price in Shandong is 1900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Jiangsu is 1890 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 622.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 27.5 US dollars/ton; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 752.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 US dollars/ton [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 23 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 16.9 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 70.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.84 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.35%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%; the daily urea output is 210,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,300 tons [2] - The urea export volume is 11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20%; the monthly urea output is 6,035,310 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 254,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 51.24%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.27%; the melamine operating rate is 65.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 6.67% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is 2,719 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,707 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 444.13 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 73.86 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 36,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3,700 tons [2] Industry News - As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 70.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.84 million tons, or 13.40% [2] - As of March 26, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 16.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million tons, or 1.20% [2] - As of March 26, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4756 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43.8 million tons, or 2.88%; the capacity utilization rate was 88.35%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market continued to show minor fluctuations. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong remained stable on average compared to the previous week. The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 1.96% this week [6][9]. - In the near future, domestic urea production has slightly decreased. Next week, there may be 1 enterprise with planned plant shutdown and 2 - 3 enterprises with possible resumption of production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, there is a high possibility of a slight increase in production. In April, agricultural demand for green - turning fertilizer is basically over, with only sporadic transactions in some areas and a small amount of agricultural reserve demand. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers, boards, melamine, etc. is relatively stable. With frequent policies on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of urea and the early release of some reserve supplies, the market trading sentiment has cooled down. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this week, and industrial demand is increasing. Although reserve supplies are being released, most urea factories still face tight supplies, and the inventory of some factories is gradually decreasing. Next week, as it is the last stage of reserve release, some local factories actively releasing reserves may lead to a further decline in enterprise inventory [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1900 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the domestic urea market was generally stable with minor fluctuations. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong was 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton, with the average price remaining the same as the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Production may slightly increase next week. Agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand is stable. Policy measures have cooled down the market sentiment. The inventory of urea enterprises is likely to continue to decline [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1850 and 1900 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 1.96% this week [9]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of March 27, the UR 5 - 9 spread was - 51 [12]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in the content. - **Warehousing Receipts**: As of March 26, there were 9024 Zhengzhou urea warehousing receipts, an increase of 525 from the previous week [19]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of March 26, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was also 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [24]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of March 26, the FOB price of urea in China was 712.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28]. - **Basis**: As of March 26, the urea basis was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [32]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of March 25, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 26, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.97 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units from the previous week [35]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of March 26, China's urea production was 147.56 tons, a decrease of 4.38 tons from the previous period, a 2.88% month - on - month decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 88.35%, a 3.84% decrease from the previous period [38]. - **Inventory**: As of March 26, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 16.9 tons, a 0.2 - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.20% increase. As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 70.05 tons, a 10.84 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 13.40% decrease [42]. - **Export**: In February 2026, urea exports were 11.15 tons, a 63.78% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 398.52 US dollars/ton, a 0.26% month - on - month increase [45]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 51.24%, a 1.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of melamine was 65.98% on average this week, a 6.67 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this week, and industrial demand continued to increase. Although reserve supplies are being continuously released, most urea factories still face a tight supply situation. Some factories' previous inventory has gradually decreased. Next week is the final stage of stockpiling, and some local factories are actively releasing reserves, which may drive the inventory of urea enterprises to decline. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1900 in the short - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1875 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea was - 64 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [2] - The position volume of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 196,640 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 4,576 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea was - 35,926 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 618 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 9,024 sheets, with a week - on - week increase of 239 sheets [2] Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui were 1870 yuan/ton, 1860 yuan/ton, 1890 yuan/ton, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively, with the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui remaining unchanged and that in Shandong increasing by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [2] - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea was 595 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port was 712.5 US dollars/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory was 16.7 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.2 million tons; the enterprise inventory was 70.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.84 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate was 92.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points; the daily urea output was 217,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons [2] - The urea export volume was 11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20%; the monthly output of urea was 6,035,310 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 254,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 49.97%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.41 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine was 59.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 5.96 percentage points [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China was 131 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 59 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was 1,012 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 726 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizers was 444.13 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 73.86 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 32,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,400 tons [2] Industry News - As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 70.05 million tons, a decrease of 10.84 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 13.40%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this period [2] - As of March 26, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 16.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million tons, an increase of 1.20%. The urea port inventory fluctuated slightly this period [2] - As of March 26, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4756 billion tons, a decrease of 43.8 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.88%. The capacity utilization rate was 88.35%, a decrease of 3.84 percentage points from the previous period, showing an obvious downward trend. There were 4 new enterprise device shutdowns and 4 shutdown device restarts during the period. Considering that there may be 1 enterprise device planned to shut down next week and 2 - 3 shutdown enterprise devices may resume production, and taking into account the possibility of short - term enterprise failures, there is a relatively high possibility of a slight increase in output [2] Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the production of urea is expected to continue to decrease due to short - term enterprise failures and planned device changes [2] - Agricultural demand for urea is gradually weakening, and the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has cooled the market trading sentiment [2] - The开工 rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the industrial consumption of urea has risen. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to maintain a steady and slightly increasing trend [2] - The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continues to decline, and industrial demand is increasing. Most urea factories still have tight supplies. In the last stage of releasing reserves next week, local factories' active release of reserves may push the inventory of urea enterprises to decline [2] - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1830 - 1900 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is 1863 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is - 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 [2] - The position volume of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is 192,064 hands, a decrease of 11,978; the net position of the top 20 is - 35,308 [2] - The number of exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea is 8,785, an increase of 73 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui remain unchanged at 1870, 1860, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively; the prices in Jiangsu and Shandong increase by 10 yuan/ton to 1880 and 1890 yuan/ton respectively [2] - The basis of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 [2] - FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remain unchanged at 595 and 712.5 US dollars/ton respectively [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 16.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons; enterprise inventory is 80.89 million tons, a decrease of 14.87 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise 开工 rate is 92.19%, a decrease of 1.1%; the daily urea output is 217,100 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons [2] - Urea export volume is 28 million tons, a decrease of 32 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,289,610 tons, an increase of 271,170 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The 开工 rate of compound fertilizers is 49.97%, an increase of 4.41%; the 开工 rate of melamine is 59.31%, an increase of 5.96% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 1,012 yuan/ton, an increase of 726 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 517.99 million tons, an increase of 18.45 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,600 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 70.05 million tons, a decrease of 10.84 million tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 13.40% [2] - As of March 19, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 16.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons from the previous period, a decline of 11.64% [2] - As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.5194 billion tons, a decrease of 18.2 million tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 1.18%; the capacity utilization rate is 92.19%, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous period [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the influence of short - term corporate malfunctions, urea production is expected to continue to decrease. Agricultural demand has gradually weakened, and policies for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices have cooled the market trading sentiment. However, the high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain a steady and slightly increasing trend. The overall inventory of urea may continue to decline, and the UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1920 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1864 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 59 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 204,042 lots, a decrease of 16,190 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 41,233; the exchange warehouse receipts are 8,712 lots, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui are 1870, 1860, 1870, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively, with Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui remaining unchanged and Jiangsu increasing by 10 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 595 US dollars/ton, and FOB China's main port is 712.5 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 16.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons compared with the previous week; enterprise inventory is 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons compared with the previous week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 92.19%, a decrease of 1.1%; the daily urea output is 217,100 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons. Urea exports are 28 tons, a decrease of 32 tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,289,610 tons, an increase of 271,170 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 49.97%, an increase of 4.41%; the melamine operating rate is 59.31%, an increase of 5.96%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 1,012 yuan/ton, an increase of 726 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 517.99 tons, an increase of 18.45 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,600 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 15.53%. As of March 19, the port inventory was 16.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons, a decrease of 11.64%. As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 151.94 tons, a decrease of 1.82 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 1.18%, and the capacity utilization rate was 92.19%, a decrease of 1.10% [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term agricultural demand for urea is gradually weakening, and the return - green fertilizer application is basically ending. Policies for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of urea are frequently issued, which cools down market trading sentiment. The high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain a steady and slightly increasing trend. The overall inventory of urea may continue to decline, and the UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1920 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1884 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 43 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread is - 59 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 220,232 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 6,330 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 47,805. The exchange warehouse receipts are 8,712, with a week - on - week increase of 213 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui are 1870, 1860, 1870, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively, with the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui remaining unchanged and that in Jiangsu decreasing by 20 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 14 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 43 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 595 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 US dollars/ton, and FOB China's main port is 712.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 67.5 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 16.7 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.2 tons; the enterprise inventory is 80.89 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.87 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 92.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1%. The daily urea output is 217,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons. The urea export volume is 28 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 32 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,289,610 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 271,170 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 49.97%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.41%. The melamine operating rate is 59.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 5.96%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 131 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 59 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 1,012 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 726 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 517.99 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.45 tons. The weekly output of melamine is 32,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,400 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 15.53%. As of March 19, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 16.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2 tons, a decline of 11.64%. As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,519,400 tons, a decrease of 18,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%, and the capacity utilization rate was 92.19%, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous period [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market has shown a slight decline. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong has dropped to 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton, with an average price decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - In the near future, domestic urea production has slightly decreased. Next week, one enterprise's equipment is planned to stop production, and 2 - 3 enterprises' stopped equipment may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, production is expected to continue to decline [6]. - Agricultural demand has gradually weakened, and top - dressing for green - turning wheat is basically coming to an end. Policies on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of urea have been frequently issued, and some reserve supplies have been released in advance, cooling the market trading sentiment [6]. - The operating rate of high - nitrogen fertilizer in compound fertilizer plants has increased, leading to an increase in industrial consumption of urea. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer is expected to remain stable with a slight increase [6]. - This week, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises has continued to decline. Affected by multiple factors, the trading atmosphere in the market is fair, the overall shipment of urea factories is smooth, and some factories are short of supplies. In the short term, due to rigid demand and international market sentiment, urea is expected to maintain a balance between production and sales, with local shortages due to maintenance, and overall inventory may continue to decline [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1820 - 1900 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market was stable with a slight decline this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong was 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton, with an average price decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Production is expected to continue to decline. Agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand from compound fertilizer plants is increasing. Inventory is likely to continue to decline. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1820 - 1900 in the short term [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market** - The price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.54% [9]. - As of March 20, the UR 5 - 9 spread was - 53 [12]. - As of March 20, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 8499, an increase of 444 compared to last week [20]. - **Spot Market** - As of March 19, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [25]. - As of March 19, the FOB price of urea in China was 645 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - As of March 19, the urea basis was 21 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from last week [32]. 3.3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of March 18, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [36]. - As of March 19, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.13 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [36]. - **Industry** - As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea producers was 151.94 tons, a decrease of 1.82 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18%; the capacity utilization rate was 92.19%, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous period [38]. - As of March 19, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 16.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2 tons, a decline of 11.64%. As of March 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 15.53% [42]. - In February 2026, urea exports were 11.15 tons, a month - on - month decline of 63.78%; the average export price was 398.52 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.26% [45]. - **Downstream** - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 49.97%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points from the previous period. It is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in the next period [49]. - As of March 19, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 59.31%, an increase of 5.96 percentage points from last week [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to short - time enterprise glitches, urea production is expected to continue to decrease. Agricultural demand has gradually weakened, and policies for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices have cooled the market trading sentiment. However, the high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain a stable and slightly increasing trend. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continued to decline this week, the market trading atmosphere is fair, the overall shipment of urea factories is smooth, and some factories have tight supplies. In the short - term, driven by rigid demand and international market sentiment, urea is expected to maintain a balance between production and sales, with tight supplies in some areas affected by maintenance, and the overall inventory may continue to decline. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1840 - 1900 in the short - term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1859 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 228,441 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 583 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 41,890. The exchange warehouse receipts are 8,499 sheets, with no change [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1870 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, it is 1860 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 1880 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it is 1880 yuan/ton, with no change; in Anhui, it is 1870 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 21 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 570 US dollars/ton, with no change; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 645 US dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 18.9 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 tons; the enterprise inventory is 80.89 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.87 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 93.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%. The daily urea output is 219,700 tons, with no change. The urea export volume is 28 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 32 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,289,610 tons, with an increase of 271,170 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 45.56%, with a week - on - week increase of 8.54%; the melamine operating rate is 53.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 286 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 534 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.1799 million tons, with an increase of 184,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,200 tons, with an increase of 2,500 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14.87 tons, or 15.53%. As of March 19, the inventory of Chinese urea port samples was 16.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2 tons, or 11.64%. As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.5194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,200 tons, or 1.18%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 92.19%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10% [3] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]