Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank Executive Isabel Schnabel indicated that trade conflicts may suppress domestic inflation, highlighting the impact of global value chains on price shocks [1] Group 1 - Trade conflicts are likely to have a dampening effect on domestic inflation rates [1] - Global value chains are exacerbating price shocks, contributing to inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main factors driving domestic inflation in the UK are domestic rather than tariff-related [1] Group 1: Inflation Factors - The UK central bank's policy is influenced by the decline in inflation [1] - Wage levels are significantly above target levels [1] - Inflation expectations are not the primary drivers of policy [1] - Recent data since the last meeting indicates a decrease in inflation [1]

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of China's tariff retaliation against the U.S. on domestic inflation, particularly focusing on the effects on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][12]. Group 1: Import Structure from the U.S. - In 2024, China's total imports from the U.S. are projected to be $163.6 billion, accounting for 6.3% of total imports, a slight decrease from 6.4% in the previous year [4][13]. - The import structure consists of approximately 34% capital goods, 34% industrial supplies, and 31% consumer goods, with significant changes observed since 2018, particularly a decrease in automobile imports and an increase in food imports [4][13]. - An analysis of specific HS4 categories reveals two types of imports: those that are low in volume but highly dependent on the U.S. (e.g., high-protein sorghum) and those that are high in volume but have low dependency on the U.S. (e.g., crude oil) [4][13]. Group 2: Impact on CPI - Using the structural decomposition method, it is estimated that the 34% tariff could increase the CPI by approximately 0.09 percentage points if fully passed through [5][6][19]. - The cost transmission method suggests that the tariff could lead to a 2.2% increase in the import price index, which would translate to a CPI increase of about 0.19 percentage points [7][8][22]. - Historical experience indicates that similar tariffs in 2018 resulted in an average CPI increase of 0.11 percentage points, leading to an estimated increase of 0.28 percentage points for the current tariff scenario [10][25]. Group 3: Methodology for CPI Impact Assessment - The assessment of CPI impact involved three methods: structural decomposition, cost transmission, and historical experience, each yielding different estimates for the potential increase in CPI due to the tariffs [5][22][25]. - The structural decomposition method involved selecting significant import categories and matching them to CPI components, while the cost transmission method relied on historical correlations between import price indices and CPI [17][22]. - The historical experience method extrapolated from past tariff impacts, adjusting for the differences in the composition of goods affected by the tariffs [10][25].

与欧美相比，新冠疫情后日本的劳动时间恢复耗时较长 日本厚生劳动省2月25日发布数据称，2024年人均月均劳动时间为136.9小时。劳动时间指数比 上年下降1.0％。新冠疫情后，欧美的劳动时间恢复到了原来的水平，日本则恢复缓慢。背后原 因是限制加班以及兼职员工增加。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）分析了当天公布的每月勤劳统计确报值。数据显示，规定 内劳动时间为126.9小时，规定外劳动时间（加班时间）为10.0小时。这两项指数分别比上年下 降0.9％和2.7％。从中期来看，人手短缺导致的劳动力供给制约将会加剧，可能拉低日本经济的 增长。 2024年日本的人均月均劳动时间为136.9小时。劳动时间指数比上年下降1.0％。新冠疫情后，欧 美的劳动时间恢复到原来的水平，日本则恢复缓慢。限制加班导致日本的劳动力供给能力面临上 限…… 虽然纠正长时间劳动是必要的政策，但在劳动人口减少的背景下，日本已经很难像过去经济增长 期那样通过增加劳动时间来灵活应对需求增长。河野龙太郎表示，目前"即使访日游客消费等需求 迅速恢复，也因为限制加班而无法提供额外的服务"。 一方面，日本的劳动供给能力面临"天花板"，另一方面，人手短缺和 ...

Global Economy and Inflation - Global economic activity is on the rise, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaging 791.6 points as of February 14, 2025, an increase of 17.60 points from the previous week [3][14] - The CRB Commodity Price Index averaged 312.46 points during the same period, up by 4.23 points week-on-week, indicating rising inflation levels [3][18] Domestic Economy and Inflation - China's official manufacturing PMI for January 2025 is at 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [4][23] - The average price of pork in China was 28.24 yuan per kilogram as of February 6, 2025, a decrease of 0.06 yuan from the previous week, reflecting stable inflation [4][31] Industrial Production - The operating rate of high furnaces in China was 78% as of February 14, 2025, unchanged from the previous week, indicating stable industrial production [5][39] - The operating rate for rebar in major steel mills increased by 0.64 percentage points to 34.76% [5][40] Consumption - Essential goods consumption remains stable, with the Keqiao Textile Price Index at 104.07 points as of January 27, 2025, down 0.24 points from the previous week [6][52] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in China decreased to 24,400 units as of February 9, 2025, down by 40,700 units from the previous week, indicating a decline in discretionary spending [6][57] Investment - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities averaged 164,900 square meters per day as of February 16, 2025, an increase of 71,000 square meters from the previous week [7][61] - The operating rate of PTA in China was 82.33% as of February 13, 2025, up by 1.04 percentage points, indicating a strengthening manufacturing sector [7][43] Exports - The export container freight index was 1,387.16 points as of February 14, 2025, down by 27.87 points, reflecting a slight decline in export activity [8][75] - The foreign trade cargo throughput at major Chinese ports was 18,710.3 million tons for the week ending February 9, 2025, an increase of 3.46 million tons from the previous week [8][76] Emerging Industries - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached an average of 5,114.15 points as of February 14, 2025, an increase of 95.19 points, indicating a rising sentiment in the semiconductor sector [9][78] - The production of integrated circuits in China for the year ending December 2024 was 45,142,296.5 million pieces, up 22.20% year-on-year, reflecting strong growth in the electronics sector [9][83]