Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing sector is likely to experience a moderate slowdown, but there are structural highlights, particularly in ASEAN countries and Africa, where manufacturing sentiment remains high. Short-term positive trends may also be observed in ASEAN countries and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI [2][22]. Group 1: Global Manufacturing Cycle Status - The global manufacturing cycle is closely linked to global trade growth, analyzed through hard indicators like industrial production and soft indicators like manufacturing PMI [4][12]. - From the global industrial production index, there has been a decline in year-on-year growth from 3.6% in March to 3.1% in May, still above last year's average of 1.7% [5][14]. - The main contributors to growth are China, the Eurozone, developed Asian economies (excluding Japan), Africa, and the Middle East, with the top four regions contributing 2.8% to the global industrial production index [5][14]. - The Eurozone is leading in growth, while emerging Asian economies (excluding China) are experiencing declines, indicating a recovery in Eurozone industrial demand [5][14]. Group 2: Global Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The global manufacturing PMI has dropped below the expansion threshold to 49.7% in July from 50.4% in June, indicating a weakening manufacturing cycle [6][20]. - Factors suppressing manufacturing activity in the second half of the year include significant order front-loading in the first half, leading to a decline in new export orders and a reduction in inventory levels in the U.S. [6][20]. - Emerging markets are performing better than developed markets, but the gap is narrowing, with July manufacturing PMI for emerging markets at 50.5% and developed markets at 49.1% [7][20]. - Among 22 sample economies, only five had manufacturing PMI above the expansion line in July, with India leading at 59.1% [7][21]. - Notably, 14 economies saw an increase in manufacturing PMI from June to July, with Vietnam showing the largest increase of 3.5 points [7][21]. Group 3: Key Data Review and Tracking - Upcoming key economic data includes the U.S. July CPI on August 12 [29]. - Recent data shows the U.S. composite PMI exceeded expectations, while the Eurozone's performance was below expectations [30]. - The U.S. retail sales growth rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% reported [34].

Group 1: Global Manufacturing Cycle Overview - The global manufacturing cycle is showing signs of moderate slowdown, with structural highlights in ASEAN countries and Africa, particularly South Africa[2] - The global industrial production index growth rate fell from 3.6% in March to 3.1% in May, still above last year's average of 1.7%[3] - The main contributors to industrial production growth are China, the Eurozone, and developed Asian economies, with the Eurozone leading the growth[3][13] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 in July from 50.4 in June, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[5][19] - Among 22 sample economies, only 5 had a PMI above the neutral line in July, with India at 59.1% and Vietnam at 52.4%[5][20] - In July, 14 out of 22 economies saw an increase in PMI compared to June, with Vietnam leading at +3.5 points[5][20] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Trends - The US composite PMI for July was 55.1%, exceeding expectations, while the Eurozone's was 50.9%, below expectations[28] - The US initial jobless claims rose to 226,000, indicating a slight increase in unemployment[40] - Recent financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have improved, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US rising to 0.62[48]

Group 1 - The overall manufacturing industrial production index recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in Q1 2025, following a 1.0% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The producer price index (PPI) rose by 4.8% in Q1 2025 compared to the same quarter last year, after a 4.1% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The industrial production index for wastewater treatment, waste management, and pollution prevention activities increased by 1.8% in Q1 2025, contrasting with a 0.7% decline in Q4 2024 [1] Group 2 - Key industries with production volume increases in Q1 2025 include paper products, printing, and recorded media copying (+2.9%), metals, computers, electronics, and optical products, machinery and equipment (+2.4%), and textiles and garments (+0.8%) [2] - The food, beverage, and tobacco products industry experienced a decline of 0.3% in production volume [2] Group 3 - The seasonally adjusted overall manufacturing industrial production index decreased by 0.5% in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024 [3] - The PPI for metals, computers, electronics, and optical products, machinery and equipment rose by 9.7% in Q1 2025 compared to the same quarter last year [3] - The textile products and garments industry saw a decline in PPI of 0.5% [3]