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新西兰6月贸易盈余1.42亿纽元,至6月12个月贸易逆差43.66亿纽元。6月出口66.3亿纽元,进口64.9亿纽元。
news flash· 2025-07-21 22:50
Core Insights - New Zealand reported a trade surplus of 142 million NZD in June, while the 12-month trade deficit reached 4.366 billion NZD [1] - Exports in June totaled 6.63 billion NZD, while imports were 6.49 billion NZD [1]
阿根廷6月贸易顺差9.06亿美元,预期7.00亿美元。6月出口72.7亿美元,进口63.7亿美元。
news flash· 2025-07-17 19:06
Core Viewpoint - Argentina's trade surplus in June reached $906 million, exceeding the expected $700 million [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Trade Performance - In June, Argentina's exports totaled $7.27 billion, while imports amounted to $6.37 billion [1]
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-07-14 02:34
海关总署:今年上半年,中国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元,同比增长2.9%。其中,出口13万亿元,历史同期首次突破13万亿元,增长7.2%;进口8.79万亿元,下降2.7%。进入6月份,进出口、出口、进口同比全部实现正增长,且增速都在回升。 ...
巴西6月贸易盈余收窄至58.89亿美元,预期62.00亿欧元。6月出口降至291.47亿美元,预期285.50亿美元。6月进口增至232.57亿美元,预期226.00亿美元。
news flash· 2025-07-04 18:07
巴西6月贸易盈余收窄至58.89亿美元,预期62.00亿欧元。 6月出口降至291.47亿美元,预期285.50亿美元。 6月进口增至232.57亿美元,预期226.00亿美元。 ...
阿根廷一季度失业率7.9%。5月贸易盈余6.08亿美元,预期盈余10.50亿美元。5月出口70.95亿美元,进口64.88亿美元。
news flash· 2025-06-19 19:06
5月贸易盈余6.08亿美元,预期盈余10.50亿美元。 5月出口70.95亿美元,进口64.88亿美元。 阿根廷一季度失业率7.9%。 ...
日度策略参考-20250617
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 05:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]
出口可能依然不差——5月经济数据前瞻【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-31 11:45
Core Viewpoint - The article provides a forecast for various macroeconomic indicators in May, indicating a mixed outlook for industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, trade, and monetary conditions, reflecting ongoing economic adjustments and external influences. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial added value is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5, indicating a recovery in production and demand [1] - Key indicators show a decline in the operating rates of automotive tires, while the chemical industry shows varied performance [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by 3.9% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing and real estate investments declining, while infrastructure investment remains stable [2] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in steel prices and an increase in asphalt operating rates, supporting stable infrastructure investment [2] Group 3: Retail Sales - Social retail sales are expected to grow by 4.7% year-on-year in May, down from 5.1% in April, with service retail showing stronger growth [3] - The automotive market is experiencing cautious sentiment due to international uncertainties, impacting retail sales growth [3] Group 4: Trade - Exports are forecasted to grow by 5% year-on-year in May, while imports are expected to remain flat at 0% [4] - Factors such as increased port activity in Southeast Asia and tariff reductions are influencing export dynamics [4] Group 5: Monetary Conditions - New credit is expected to reach 800 billion yuan in May, with total social financing at 2 trillion yuan and M2 growth at 7.7% [5] - The article notes a shift in loan dynamics, with government bonds contributing significantly to social financing [5] Group 6: Inflation - CPI is projected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while PPI is expected to drop to -3% [5] - Price movements in fresh produce and energy are influencing inflation metrics [5] Group 7: Economic Forecasts - A summary table outlines various economic indicators for May 2025, including GDP growth, industrial added value, retail sales, fixed asset investment, exports, imports, trade surplus, CPI, PPI, and M2 growth [6]
美国进口飙升拖累GDP逾5个百分点 但趋势可能在未来逆转
news flash· 2025-04-30 13:09
Core Insights - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter of 2025, raising concerns about a potential recession as President Trump's second term begins [1] - Some Wall Street economists have revised their GDP forecasts to negative growth due to unexpected increases in imports driven by inventory accumulation by businesses and consumers [1] - Imports negatively impacted GDP by over 5 percentage points, while exports grew by 1.8% [1] Economic Indicators - Personal consumption expenditures grew by 1.8%, marking the slowest quarterly growth since Q2 2023, down from 4% in the previous quarter [1] - Private domestic investment saw a significant increase of 21.9% [1]
工业品价格增速或有回踩——4月经济数据前瞻【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-04-30 11:03
报 告 正 文 预计4月工业增加值同比增长5.8% 。4月全国制造业PMI回落至49%,再度降至线下。主要分项指标中,产 需双双回落,原材料和出厂价格均有下行,原材料和产成品库存同步下降。从4月以来的中观高频数据来 看,汽车半钢胎和全钢胎开工率同比继续下降,化工行业开工率同比降幅均有走扩。六大发电集团耗煤同 比增速因去年同期基数走低而有所上升。整体来看,工业生产景气度保持平稳。我们预计,4月工业增加 值同比增速降至5.8%。 预计4月固定资产投资累计同比增长4.2%。 具体来看三大类投资,基建投资累计同比增速有所上升,制造 业投资累计同比增速有所下降,房地产投资累计同比增速略微下降。我们预计,4月投资累计增速或保持 稳定。 首先, 从基建相关的高频数据来看,水泥价格同比略有上升,螺纹钢累计产量同比降幅收窄,预 计基建投资累计增速有所上升; 其次, 42城地产销量累计同比降幅持续走扩,预计房地产投资额累计降 幅略微下降; 最后 ,乘联会乘用车批发和零售销量累计同比由升转降,预测制造业投资累计增速将有所 下降。我们预计,4月固定资产投资累计同比增速或保持稳定至4.2%。 预计4月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4% ...