01 金融期货策略建议 目 录 重点数据跟踪 02 股指关注两会预期，国债 关注供给压力 2026-02-24 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：四大股指均震荡运行，节前有所承压。 p 核心观点：中国商务部：敦促美方取消对贸易伙伴加征的有关单边关税措施。美国海关称将从2月24日 起停止征收被最高法院裁定违法的关税。美民主党称将阻止任何延长关税企图，力推强制退款方案。欧 盟冻结对美欧贸易协议的批准程序，并警告称特朗普的新关税破坏双方贸易协定。美联储理事沃勒： CEO们称AI将致大量裁员，3月利率决议取决于2月劳动力数据。AI担忧加剧，贵金属走强，股指短期 或震荡运行，两会前或震荡偏强运行，可关注市场对两会预期的情绪。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示大盘指数或震荡运行。 p 策略展望：区间震荡。 p 风险提示：特朗普政策实施节奏与力度，美国经济数据暴雷，美联储降息节奏， ...

Export Performance - December 2025 exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, exceeding the 3% consensus forecast from Reuters[9] - Monthly exports reached $35.778 billion, with a trade surplus of $11.414 billion[7] - The growth in exports was driven by strong performance in automobiles and high-tech products, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 16.6% and 12.1%[9] Trade Dynamics - Exports to Hong Kong showed significant improvement, contributing an additional 0.97 percentage points to overall export growth[9] - The automotive sector's robust performance was influenced by the EU's proposed minimum import price policy, leading to a "rush to import" effect[9] Import Trends - December imports rose by 5.7% year-on-year, surpassing the 0.9% forecast from Reuters[9] - Key imports included integrated circuits and high-tech products, with respective growth rates of 13.5% and 8.7%[9] Future Outlook - Export growth in 2026 is expected to be supported by the manufacturing cycle, Belt and Road investments, and price advantages of export goods[3] - Structural opportunities are identified in sectors such as AI and infrastructure, driven by ongoing global manufacturing recovery and investment trends[3] Risk Factors - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies may impact China's export outlook, with potential legal challenges to tariff implementations[48]

Export Performance - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8%[6] - Monthly export value reached $330.35 billion, with imports at $218.67 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $111.68 billion[6] - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America showed strong growth, with EU exports rising 14.8% year-on-year[6] Trade Dynamics - Exports to the US decreased slightly, with November exports valued at $33.79 billion, a year-on-year decline of 28.6%[6] - Exports to Africa surged by 27.6% year-on-year, with a monthly export value of $20.9 billion[6] - Exports to Latin America also strengthened, with a year-on-year increase of 14.9% and a monthly export value of $26.23 billion[6] Product Categories - High-tech products, electromechanical products, and labor-intensive products saw year-on-year growth rates of 7.7%, 9.7%, and -8.3%, respectively[6] - Integrated circuits and general machinery exports performed strongly, contributing significantly to overall export growth[6] Import Trends - November imports increased by 1.9% year-on-year, below the expected 3%[6] - Major imports included computers and integrated circuits, which showed significant growth in import value[6] Future Outlook - Short-term export pressures are anticipated due to declining container booking volumes since November 9, indicating potential challenges in December[6] - Long-term resilience is expected to be supported by global manufacturing recovery and price advantages of Chinese export goods[6] Risk Factors - Uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies may impact China's export performance, with potential legal challenges affecting future tariff implementations[8]

Group 1 - Global risk assets experienced a broad decline, with significant drops in both US and Chinese indices, particularly in technology stocks [2][5][6] - The decline in asset prices is attributed to overseas risk events, including the potential impact of the US government shutdown and renewed trade tensions between the US and China [2][5][6] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has increased but remains below extreme levels, indicating that the market is not in a state of panic [6][10][12] Group 2 - Since April, asset prices have gradually recovered from a period of excessive pessimism, aided by positive developments such as fiscal expansion in the US and capital expenditures from tech giants [3][7][12] - The report highlights two potential paths for the US economy: one indicating a late-stage stagflation in the service sector and another showing early recovery in manufacturing [12][17] - The upcoming earnings season for US technology companies is crucial to observe whether expectations will align with reality [12][17] Group 3 - The report suggests that while there is no current panic in the market, the higher valuation levels compared to April indicate a lack of "greed" [17] - For Chinese assets, the previous gains were largely driven by alignment with overseas technology trends, which may pose vulnerabilities in the short term [17] - The report recommends focusing on domestic policies and sectors that may benefit from a recovery in domestic demand, such as food and beverage, aviation, and real estate [17]

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing sector is likely to experience a moderate slowdown, but there are structural highlights, particularly in ASEAN countries and Africa, where manufacturing sentiment remains high. Short-term positive trends may also be observed in ASEAN countries and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI [2][22]. Group 1: Global Manufacturing Cycle Status - The global manufacturing cycle is closely linked to global trade growth, analyzed through hard indicators like industrial production and soft indicators like manufacturing PMI [4][12]. - From the global industrial production index, there has been a decline in year-on-year growth from 3.6% in March to 3.1% in May, still above last year's average of 1.7% [5][14]. - The main contributors to growth are China, the Eurozone, developed Asian economies (excluding Japan), Africa, and the Middle East, with the top four regions contributing 2.8% to the global industrial production index [5][14]. - The Eurozone is leading in growth, while emerging Asian economies (excluding China) are experiencing declines, indicating a recovery in Eurozone industrial demand [5][14]. Group 2: Global Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The global manufacturing PMI has dropped below the expansion threshold to 49.7% in July from 50.4% in June, indicating a weakening manufacturing cycle [6][20]. - Factors suppressing manufacturing activity in the second half of the year include significant order front-loading in the first half, leading to a decline in new export orders and a reduction in inventory levels in the U.S. [6][20]. - Emerging markets are performing better than developed markets, but the gap is narrowing, with July manufacturing PMI for emerging markets at 50.5% and developed markets at 49.1% [7][20]. - Among 22 sample economies, only five had manufacturing PMI above the expansion line in July, with India leading at 59.1% [7][21]. - Notably, 14 economies saw an increase in manufacturing PMI from June to July, with Vietnam showing the largest increase of 3.5 points [7][21]. Group 3: Key Data Review and Tracking - Upcoming key economic data includes the U.S. July CPI on August 12 [29]. - Recent data shows the U.S. composite PMI exceeded expectations, while the Eurozone's performance was below expectations [30]. - The U.S. retail sales growth rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% reported [34].

Group 1: Global Manufacturing Cycle Overview - The global manufacturing cycle is showing signs of moderate slowdown, with structural highlights in ASEAN countries and Africa, particularly South Africa[2] - The global industrial production index growth rate fell from 3.6% in March to 3.1% in May, still above last year's average of 1.7%[3] - The main contributors to industrial production growth are China, the Eurozone, and developed Asian economies, with the Eurozone leading the growth[3][13] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 in July from 50.4 in June, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[5][19] - Among 22 sample economies, only 5 had a PMI above the neutral line in July, with India at 59.1% and Vietnam at 52.4%[5][20] - In July, 14 out of 22 economies saw an increase in PMI compared to June, with Vietnam leading at +3.5 points[5][20] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Trends - The US composite PMI for July was 55.1%, exceeding expectations, while the Eurozone's was 50.9%, below expectations[28] - The US initial jobless claims rose to 226,000, indicating a slight increase in unemployment[40] - Recent financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have improved, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US rising to 0.62[48]

Export Data Insights - In July, dollar-denominated exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while imports rose by 4.1%, both significantly exceeding expectations and reaching new highs since May 2025 and August 2024 respectively[11] - The strong export performance is attributed to four main factors: low base effect, robust exports to non-US economies, a surge in transshipment activities, and the restructuring of supply chains leading to increased demand for capital goods[3] - From a price perspective, refined oil (+0.82%) was the main driver, while mobile phones (-0.42%) and steel (-0.21%) were the main constraints; in terms of quantity, automobiles (+0.61%) were the primary driver, while refined oil (-0.84%) was the main constraint[34] Global Economic Context - The global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector and a lack of reversal signals in the global manufacturing cycle[39] - The US market is a critical variable affecting external demand; a slowdown in US demand could lead to a downward shift in global export growth rates[43] - Recent US data indicates that tariffs have impacted corporate capital expenditures and employment demand, increasing the probability of an economic recession in the US[43] Inventory and Trade Dynamics - Unlike previous cycles, US wholesalers and retailers are experiencing declining inventory levels, with inventory-to-sales ratios at 1.30 and 1.31, below the central levels of 2023-2024[58] - The current inventory accumulation is likely occurring at the consumer level rather than the corporate level, suggesting a longer adjustment period when the cycle reverses[58] Risks and Uncertainties - Domestic policy effectiveness may fall short of expectations, and international geopolitical developments could introduce unexpected changes[63] - There is a potential for measurement errors in monthly import and export growth rates due to various variables in the models used[63]