文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 1995年元旦那天，瑞士日内瓦的WTO总部挂起新牌子，全球买卖的规矩要变了。 以前各国做生意吵起来没地方说理，现在有了争端解决机制，关税得往下砍，商品、钱能更自由地跨国 流。 这年头上，冷战刚结束没多久，美国想着当老大，俄罗斯正忙着"休克"，中国则攥着"复关"转"入世"的 申请书，站在全球化的门口往里瞅。 全球贸易的新桌子搭起来了，中国想上桌，就得过几道关。 欧美那边盯着知识产权，说咱们仿冒多，国内吵翻了天，有人怕外资进来把自家产业冲垮，有人觉得躲 着不是办法。 那会儿最明显的是汽水行业，可口可乐、百事可乐像两头大象闯进菜园子，七年时间收购了七个本土品 牌，江湖上叫"两乐水淹七军"。 中国夹在中间，既要应付外面的规矩，又得顾着家里的摊子。 那会儿本土汽水厂技术、资金都差着档次，被收购也不奇怪，但奇怪的是，总有人不想认输。 WTO来了，中国企业的"生存考试"刚开始 俄罗斯那年日子也不好过。 叶利钦搞"休克疗法"，放开物价、工厂私有，结果1995年GDP比1990年跌了快一半，钱毛得厉害，面包 都涨了200多倍。 车臣那边还在打仗，俄军攻格罗兹尼，巷战打得血肉模糊，暴露了苏联解体后的 ...

Core Insights - Shanghai's import and export value reached 4.1 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, surpassing the national average growth rate by 2 percentage points [1] - Exports amounted to 1.83 trillion yuan, growing by 11.2%, while imports totaled 2.27 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6% [1] - November saw record monthly exports, with a total of 1.87 trillion yuan, marking an 18.2% increase, and imports at 200.9 billion yuan, up by 4.4% [1] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - The EU remains the largest trading partner for Shanghai, with import and export growth accelerating by 1.1 percentage points in the first 11 months [1] - Significant growth in trade with emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa, indicating effective market diversification [1] Export Dynamics - Machinery and electrical products accounted for 65.4% of total exports, with a value of 1.19 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.3% [2] - The export of "new three samples" products, particularly hybrid vehicles, surged by 174.8% to 25.72 billion yuan, showcasing strong demand [2] - The export of liquid cargo ships increased by 130.5% to 34.24 billion yuan, driven by the green low-carbon trend [2] Import Trends - High-tech product imports reached 737.21 billion yuan, growing by 6.3%, with notable increases in semiconductor manufacturing equipment (35.4%), computers and components (24%), and aircraft (74.3%) [2] - The import of raw materials such as metal ores and copper products also saw growth, indicating active manufacturing sector activities [2] - Consumer market vitality is reflected in the increased imports of various consumer goods, including fruits, dairy products, toys, and sports equipment [2]

Core Insights - Shanghai's import and export value increased by 5.7% year-on-year in the first 11 months of this year, reaching 4.1 trillion yuan, which is 2 percentage points higher than the national average growth rate [1] - Exports amounted to 1.83 trillion yuan, growing by 11.2%, while imports reached 2.27 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6% [1] - In November alone, the import and export value was 387.49 billion yuan, marking a 10.6% increase, with exports hitting a record high of 186.6 billion yuan, up 18.2% [1] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - Shanghai's trade with the European Union, its largest trading partner, reached 742.31 billion yuan, growing by 1.4% [1] - Trade with emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa saw significant growth, with increases of 12.6%, 17.5%, and 28.9% respectively, indicating effective market diversification [1] Export and Import Composition - In the first 11 months, Shanghai exported 1.19 trillion yuan worth of electromechanical products, accounting for 65.4% of total exports, with "new three types" products growing by 16.5% [2] - Notably, hybrid vehicle exports surged by 174.8% to 25.72 billion yuan, while liquid cargo ship exports increased by 130.5% to 34.24 billion yuan [2] - High-tech product imports totaled 737.21 billion yuan, with significant growth in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, computers, and aircraft, reflecting a robust manufacturing sector [2] Consumer Goods and Market Activity - The import of consumer goods showed positive trends, with fruit and dairy product imports growing by 17.8% and 14.2% respectively, alongside toys and sports equipment imports increasing by 17% and 15.1% [2]

Core Insights - Hong Kong's overall manufacturing industrial production index increased by 5.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, following a 0.9% rise in Q2 2025 [1] - The producer price index also saw a significant increase of 7.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, compared to a 4% rise in Q2 2025 [1] Manufacturing Sector Performance - Key industries that recorded production increases in Q3 2025 include: - Metals, computers, electronics, and optical products, with a rise of 6.1% - Food, beverages, and tobacco products, increasing by 2.5% - Paper products, printing, and recorded media replication, up by 1.0% [2] - The textile and apparel industry experienced a decline of 5.2% in production [2] Price Index Analysis - The producer price index reflects changes in local production prices, with all major manufacturing sectors showing price increases in Q3 2025 compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The largest increase in producer prices was seen in metals, computers, electronics, and optical products at 14.6%, followed by textiles and apparel at 2.7%, paper products, printing, and recorded media replication at 1.5%, and food, beverages, and tobacco products at 1.0% [2]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant decline in China's laptop exports in October 2025, with a total of 10.29 million units exported, representing a year-on-year decrease of 17.9% [1] - The export value for laptops also saw a substantial drop, amounting to $5.409 billion, which is a 25.5% decrease compared to the previous year [1] Industry Overview - The data is sourced from Chinese customs, indicating a trend of declining performance in the laptop export sector [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in comprehensive industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1]

据《韩国时报》12月7日报道，韩国国际贸易协会统计，今年1至10月韩国出口总额为5791亿美元，日本 为6061亿美元，差距较2024年全年差距（1224亿美元）大幅缩减，并为有记录以来的最低水平。报道 称，韩国在2024年上半年短暂将同日本的出口差距压缩至32亿美元，但受下半年国际市场波动影响，差 距再度拉大。今年以来随着半导体价格和订单回升，韩国出口再次强势反弹。 来源：环球时报 今年韩国出口额可能历史性逼近日本，两国差距收窄至不足300亿美元，这一突破引发韩国产业界对首 次追平乃至反超日本的高度期待。 不过，韩联社分析指出，韩国出口的改善高度依赖半导体产业。若剔除这一品类，今年出口反而出现负 增长。韩国产业通商资源部数据显示，今年1至11月韩国累计出口额同比增长2.9%，但除半导体外的其 他品类出口同比下降1.5%。今年11月，韩国半导体出口额同比增长38.6%，达到172.6亿美元创历史新 高，在出口总额中的占比升至28.3%，为今年以来最高水平。而在20年前，半导体出口占比长期维持在 10%左右。 韩联社认为，目前韩国出口结构明显集中于单一关键品类。在主要15个出口品类中，除半导体、汽车、 船舶、生 ...

Group 1 - South Korea's export value is projected to historically approach Japan's, with the gap narrowing to less than $30 billion, raising expectations in the South Korean industry for a potential equalization or even surpassing Japan [1] - From January to October 2023, South Korea's total export amounted to $579.1 billion, while Japan's was $606.1 billion, marking the lowest recorded difference compared to the full year of 2024, which had a gap of $122.4 billion [1] - The export gap briefly narrowed to $3.2 billion in the first half of 2024 but widened again due to fluctuations in the international market in the latter half of the year [1] Group 2 - The improvement in South Korea's exports is heavily reliant on the semiconductor industry; excluding this category, overall exports would have shown negative growth [3] - From January to November 2023, South Korea's cumulative export value increased by 2.9% year-on-year, but exports of other categories, excluding semiconductors, declined by 1.5% [3] - In November 2023, semiconductor exports surged by 38.6% year-on-year, reaching a record high of $17.26 billion, accounting for 28.3% of total exports, the highest proportion for the year [3] - The export structure of South Korea is significantly concentrated on a single key category, with declines observed in 10 out of 15 major export categories, including petrochemicals, steel, petroleum products, automotive parts, and wireless communication devices [3] - This phenomenon is interpreted as an "export illusion" caused by a semiconductor supercycle, with potential significant impacts on the South Korean economy if semiconductor market conditions decline [3]

Group 1 - The US manufacturing index decreased from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, remaining below the neutral level of 50 for nine consecutive months, indicating ongoing challenges for US factories due to import tariffs [1] - Only four industries experienced growth in November, including computers, electronics, and machinery, while several sectors such as wood, transportation, and apparel faced contraction [1] - Transportation equipment manufacturers are implementing structural adjustments in response to the tariff environment, including layoffs and shifting production overseas [1] Group 2 - Chemical product manufacturers report that tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to suppress demand for construction materials like adhesives [1] - Electrical equipment, appliance, and component manufacturers express concerns over a "chaotic trade environment" [1] - Other producers indicate that rising tariffs, government shutdowns, and increasing global uncertainty contribute to a persistently weak business environment [1] Group 3 - The US Supreme Court's recent questioning of the legality of Trump's tariffs has intensified speculation about potential overturning of these tariffs, which could lead to greater chaos [1] - Market expectations suggest that if the Supreme Court issues an unfavorable ruling, Trump may pivot to alternative trade strategies [1]

Group 1 - Notable fund managers have increased their positions in Hong Kong stocks during the third quarter, particularly in AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to discussions about a potential market rebound in Hong Kong [1] - Daiwa Securities Group reported that mainland Chinese investors are realizing profits in Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect mechanism, with a focus on sectors such as electronics, computers, and military industries, while also increasing holdings in high-dividend stocks like energy and metal producers [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities' research indicates that not only the TMT sector but also non-ferrous metals and chemicals are experiencing price increases influenced by AI narratives, with these sectors collectively accounting for over 60% of institutional holdings [4] - The strategy for portfolio adjustment is not to avoid AI narratives but to select stocks with a rising trend in ROE from a low base, suggesting that AI narratives are affecting the slope of market trends rather than the overall trend itself [4]

Core Viewpoint - The optimism surrounding AIPC (Artificial Intelligence Personal Computer) from manufacturers may not be reliable, as the AI experience that consumers can directly perceive is still immature [6][23]. Group 1: AIPC Market Dynamics - Lenovo's AIPC sales are on the rise, indicating a growing trend in the market [3]. - Intel reported a revenue of $13.65 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 2.8% year-on-year increase, attributed to AIPC demand [4]. - By the end of 2025, Intel expects to supply processors for over 100 million AIPC units [4]. Group 2: Hardware and Software Ecosystem - AIPC integrates a Neural Processing Unit (NPU) alongside traditional CPU and GPU, enhancing AI task execution [2][7]. - The AIPC market is driven by various chip manufacturers, including Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm, each offering unique architectures and capabilities [9][10]. - Microsoft leads the operating system market with its "Copilot+PC" standard for AIPC, requiring a minimum NPU performance of 40 TOPS and 16GB of RAM [11]. Group 3: Consumer Experience and Challenges - Despite high expectations, AIPC's software ecosystem is fragmented, and many productivity applications do not effectively utilize the NPU [5][20]. - Users report dissatisfaction with AI functionalities, citing issues with accuracy and usability [19][20]. - The physical limitations of local devices pose challenges for running high-parameter AI models, impacting user experience [22]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The rapid growth of AIPC is closely tied to the end of support for Windows 10, pushing businesses to upgrade [18]. - The true potential of AIPC may not be realized until the developer ecosystem matures and AI applications become more robust [23][24]. - AIPC penetration is projected to exceed 50% by 2028, indicating a long-term growth trajectory [24].