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瑞典国家经济研究所调查显示消费者情绪持续改善
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-09-25 02:32
瑞典国家经济研究所官网9月24日发布《经济趋势调查》显示,经济趋势指标在9月再次上升,但仍表明 情绪略弱于正常水平。消费者信心指数连续第五个月上升,但继续显示出情绪疲软。消费者信心指数上 升主要得益于消费者对未来十二个月自身经济状况和瑞典经济前景的预期均有所改善。整个商业部门对 未来三个月销售价格的预期与8月相比基本保持不变,并接近历史平均水平。然而,各行业的发展情况 有所不同。一是制造业信心指数上升,目前表明情绪处于正常水平。企业对未来三个月的生产计划不如 往常乐观,这对指数产生了抑制作用;同时,企业报告产成品库存相对较少,这对指数产生了积极影 响。二是建筑业信心指数略有下降,表明情绪低于正常水平。企业对未来三个月建筑活动的预期在过去 半年内有所下降,9月建筑企业预计同期活动将保持不变。超过六成的企业报告称,需求不足是建筑业 增长的障碍。三是贸易信心指数持续上升,显示出商业领域的情绪最为强劲。食品零售业的信心指数有 所下降,但仍远高于正常水平。在汽车贸易、批发贸易和非食品零售贸易领域,信心指数徘徊在历史平 均水平附近。四是服务业信心指数略有下降,但仍表明情绪处于正常水平。同时,企业对业务量的不满 情绪持续存 ...
初请数据上演“魔幻秀”:从近四年最高,瞬间变为近四年最大降幅!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-18 15:06
美国上周初请失业金人数创下近四年来的最大降幅,扭转了前一周异常大的增幅,并与经济中较低的裁 员水平保持一致。 根据劳工部周四公布的数据,在截至9月13日的一周内,初请失业金人数减少了3.3万人,至23.1万人。 这与今年以来的水平基本一致,离疫情前的趋势也不远。续请失业金人数(代表领取救济金的总人数) 在此前一周降至192万人,但仍高于190万人这一关键阈值。 初请失业金人数的总体下降表明,在不确定的经济环境中,公司仍在留住员工。即便如此,从近几个月 就业增长步伐的大幅放缓,到劳动力供需两端的降温,劳动力市场仍存在疲软迹象。 在全年维持利率不变后,美联储因就业市场出现压力迹象,于周四恢复了降息。美联储主席鲍威尔表 示,他已不能再将其描述为"非常稳固",决策者们也看到了失业率上升的更大风险。 "今天的报告对上周关于裁员突然激增的任何理论都提出了质疑,"High Frequency Economics的首席经 济学家卡Carl B. Weinberg在一份报告中说。"它也削弱了美联储内部和市场上要求更多、更大幅度降息 的呼声。" 有助于消除波动的四周移动平均初请失业金人数变化不大,为24万人。 此次下降扭转了前一 ...
自特朗普发动关税战以来,美国哪些行业失业最严重?
财富FORTUNE· 2025-09-11 13:10
Core Insights - The trade war initiated by Donald Trump has led to significant job losses in industries affected by tariffs, with a net reduction of 90,100 jobs since February [2][4] - The overall employment growth in the U.S. has been positive, with an increase of 385,000 jobs during the same period, driven mainly by sectors less impacted by tariffs, such as healthcare and hospitality [4] - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.3%, marking a four-year high [2] Industry Impact - Industries directly affected by tariffs include manufacturing, mining and logging, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation, and warehousing [3] - Manufacturing has seen a loss of 41,000 jobs, while wholesale trade has lost 34,000 jobs [4] - In contrast, retail trade has added 19,000 jobs, and construction employment has remained stable [4] Economic Outlook - Despite job losses in tariff-impacted sectors, there are layoffs in other industries due to overall economic uncertainty stemming from the trade war [5] - Moody's Analytics warns that the current trend of more layoffs than new jobs typically occurs during economic recessions [5] - The Trump administration claims that tax cuts and deregulation will stimulate economic growth and ultimately create more jobs [5]
美国8月失业率升至4.3%,劳动力市场警报再次拉响
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-08 01:37
Group 1: Labor Market Overview - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, marking a new high in nearly four years, which is significantly above market expectations [1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, a sharp decline from the revised 79,000 in July, and well below economists' expectations of 75,000 [1] - The number of permanent job losses increased to 1.915 million in July, indicating a shift from temporary layoffs to long-term structural reductions [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Job growth in August was primarily driven by the healthcare sector, which added 31,000 jobs, although this is below the average monthly increase of 42,000 over the past year [3] - Manufacturing experienced job losses for the fourth consecutive month, shedding 24,000 jobs, largely due to tariff impacts and supply chain restructuring [3] - Federal government employment decreased by 15,000 in August, with a total reduction of 97,000 jobs since January [3] Group 3: Economic Implications - The weak labor market has raised concerns about the economic outlook, with some economists suggesting that the economy is sliding towards recession [1][4] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees rose to $36.53 in August, a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 3.7% year-over-year increase, although reduced working hours have raised concerns about economic growth [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in response to the weak employment data, with a potential 25 basis point cut anticipated in the upcoming policy meeting [7] Group 4: Political and Structural Factors - Political factors have influenced economic data, with President Trump dismissing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics over alleged manipulation of employment data [4] - Young graduates face a high unemployment rate of 6.6%, the highest in a decade, indicating that entry-level positions now often require several years of experience [5] - The OECD has downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, warning that tariffs could push the unemployment rate above 4.4% by early 2026 [11]
8月非农就业不及格,特朗普称是降息太迟所致!美国真要放水了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-06 04:37
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant underperformance of the August non-farm payroll data, which recorded only 22,000 new jobs compared to the expected 75,000, raising concerns about the economic outlook [1][4] - The release of this data is particularly notable as it is the first non-farm report published after the dismissal of the previous Bureau of Labor Statistics director by the Trump administration, which has led to skepticism regarding data reliability [2] - The August data shows a decline of 15,000 federal government jobs, while the private sector added 38,000 jobs, indicating a mixed employment landscape that contrasts with Trump's manufacturing policy goals [4] Group 2 - The weak employment data has intensified fears of an economic recession, leading to a surge in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut in mid-September [4] - Following the release of the non-farm data, Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chair Powell for not acting sooner on interest rate cuts, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [6] - The broad money supply (M2) in the U.S. has also been increasing, surpassing $22 trillion in June 2025, suggesting a dual easing environment that could stimulate economic activity [6][7] Group 3 - Investors are facing challenges to the traditional "cash is king" belief, as inflation may erode the purchasing power of cash holders, while those with ample funds may find opportunities to convert cash into appreciating assets [8] - The current monetary easing cycle is accompanied by risks of asset price bubbles, necessitating a careful balance between opportunities and risks for investors [9] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming September meeting for potential interest rate cuts and the implications of subsequent economic data [11]
7月智利工业生产指数跌至2月以来最低值
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-09-05 17:28
Core Insights - Chile's Industrial Production Index (IPI) showed a modest increase of only 1% in July, marking the worst performance since February's decline of 3.7% [1] - Mining production decreased by 0.9%, while electricity, gas, and water production increased by 0.9%, and manufacturing rose by 2.7% [1] Trade Performance - Chile's trade growth remained strong, with a monthly increase of 6.5% in July and a cumulative growth of 4.9% from January to July [1] - Wholesale trade (excluding automobiles and motorcycles) grew by 7.6%, while retail trade (excluding automobiles) increased by 5.8% [1] - Automobile and motorcycle trade saw a growth of 4.9%, and the supermarket sales index (ISUP) rose by 2.8%, with a cumulative growth of 1.7% from January to July [1] - The retail e-commerce index (ICEM) experienced significant growth, with a monthly increase of 14.7% in July and a cumulative growth of 13.1% from January to July, driven mainly by transactions in home electronics and technology products [1]
美元跳水,黄金拉升!美国,重磅数据发布!
证券时报· 2025-09-05 15:13
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the weak U.S. employment data released on September 5, which has significantly increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [2][8]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. added 22,000 jobs in August, falling short of the expected 75,000, with the previous month's figure revised from 73,000 to 79,000 [5][6]. - The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, matching expectations, while average hourly wages increased by 3.7% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.8% [5][6]. - The report indicated a slowdown in job growth compared to July's addition of 79,000 jobs, with the June data showing a negative growth of 13,000 jobs [6]. Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped nearly 0.8%, while gold prices surged over 1%, reaching a record high of $3,594.76 per ounce [2][8]. - The two-year Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points to 3.5%, the lowest since April, and the ten-year yield decreased by 4 basis points to 4.1% [8]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen to 96% following the employment report [8][10]. - Analysts believe the weak employment data has made a rate cut almost certain, with some suggesting that the current economic conditions warrant a release of monetary policy strength [10].
巴菲特加持,日本“五大商社”股价已经太贵了?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-03 00:48
Group 1 - The stock prices of Japanese trading companies are hovering at the highest valuation levels in 20 years, leading to investor hesitation about whether to continue buying into the rally initiated by Warren Buffett's investment five years ago [1][2] - Mitsubishi Corporation's 12-month forward P/E ratio has reached its highest level since 2005, while Itochu Corporation's P/B ratio has hit a peak not seen since 2008 [2] - The surge in valuation levels is closely linked to Buffett's initial disclosure of holdings in Japan's five major trading companies in 2020, with average stock prices of these companies rising by 320% since then, significantly outperforming the Tokyo Stock Exchange index [2] Group 2 - The Japanese trading sector is facing challenges with slowing profit growth, raising concerns among analysts [3] - External factors such as Trump's tariff policies, a strengthening yen, and declining commodity prices are expected to exert pressure on the trading companies' business operations [3] - Despite Buffett's long-term investment commitment providing some support for these stocks, the uncertainty surrounding resource prices, exchange rates, and tariff policies makes it difficult to justify further investments at current high valuation levels [3]
美国黑人失业率创近年新高,美媒:更广泛劳动力市场可能正显现裂痕
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-09-02 22:33
Group 1 - The overall unemployment rate in the U.S. remained at 4.2% in July, but the unemployment rate for the Black community rose to 7.2%, the highest level since October 2021 [1] - In Michigan, the Black unemployment rate reached 10% in the first quarter of this year, nearly double the state's overall unemployment rate, while South Carolina's rate increased by 3 percentage points to 6.9% [1] - The rise in Black unemployment may indicate broader cracks in the labor market, as Black workers are often the first to be impacted during economic downturns [1] Group 2 - The Black unemployment rate had previously dropped to 4.8% in 2023, the lowest level since 1972, with the gap between Black and White unemployment rates narrowing to a historical low [1] - However, as the job market slows and economic distortions from the pandemic become apparent, this gap has widened again [1] - The U.S. manufacturing sector lost 11,000 jobs from June to July, and wholesale trade saw a reduction of 7,800 jobs, with a higher proportion of Black workers in these industries [1] Group 3 - Recent cuts to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs in Republican-led states and companies, along with federal layoffs, have negatively impacted Black employment [2] - Black workers make up about 18% of federal employees, significantly higher than their 12% share in the overall labor market, with even higher proportions in certain departments [2] - For instance, the Department of Education has a Black employee ratio of approximately 36%, while the International Development Agency and the Department of Health and Human Services have ratios of 21% and 20.5%, respectively [2]
2024年波黑外国直接投资流入达17.6亿马克
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-30 01:33
Core Insights - The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina released the 2024 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) survey report, indicating a decrease in FDI inflow to 1.76 billion marks, down by 301 million marks compared to 2023 [1] Investment Sources - The largest FDI inflow in 2024 comes from Croatia at 391.1 million marks, followed by Germany at 255.3 million marks and Slovenia at 247.1 million marks [1] Investment Sectors - The financial services sector attracted the highest investment totaling 503.8 million marks, followed by retail trade at 219.8 million marks and wholesale trade at 205.1 million marks [1] Total FDI Stock - By the end of 2024, the total FDI stock in Bosnia and Herzegovina is projected to be 21.22 billion marks, which includes both the 2024 FDI and previous investments along with the operational results of foreign enterprises [1] FDI Stock by Source - The largest share of FDI stock comes from Croatia at 3.22 billion marks (15.2% of total stock), followed by Austria at 2.9 billion marks (13.7%) and Serbia at 2.8 billion marks (13.3%) [1] FDI Stock by Sector - The financial services sector also holds the largest FDI stock at 4.27 billion marks, followed by telecommunications at 2.02 billion marks and wholesale trade at 2.01 billion marks [1]