"哎，你最近有关注美元汇率吗？"我喝着咖啡问朋友，他翻了翻手机，"有啊，我看到今天一美元兑人民币是7.11左右，是不是涨了？" "没涨多少啦，今天主要是小幅波动。"我解释，"不过你知道吗，汇率可不是简单说涨就涨，跌就跌，背后牵扯到很多全球经济和政策因素。" 今日人民币兑美元汇率情况 截至今天，也就是十月十号，银行间外汇市场人民币兑美元中间价报的是1美元兑换7.1102元人民币。这个价格算是稳中有小波动。大家平时用的网银、手 机银行或者去兑换外币的地方，基本上都会参考这个中间价，但具体买卖价格可能会有几分钱的差异。 看起来变化不大，但如果你计划出国旅游或者进口东西，哪怕几分钱的差价，累积起来也是一笔不小的开销。比如一张机票或者一个电子产品，可能就因为 汇率差额多花几十元甚至几百元。 汇率为什么会小幅波动 你可能会好奇，为什么今天美元对人民币涨跌不大，却还是会有波动？主要原因有两点：一是全球经济复苏有点慢，美联储的货币政策又比较紧；二是国内 经济运行情况也会影响人民币需求和供应。 打个简单的比方，如果美国经济走得快，人们买东西、投资多，美元就更值钱；反过来，如果美元利率高，大家存美元或者买美元资产也会增加需求，人 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程月报 全球复苏逻辑强化，超配商品+权益 ——2025 年 10 月大类资产配置月报 核心观点 美欧日政局变化进一步强化全球财政扩张叙事，"宽货币+宽财政"周期下，或应继续 交易全球经济复苏，维持看多金铜等大宗商品及全球权益资产。 ❑ 美欧日政局变化进一步强化全球财政扩张叙事，全球经济复苏前景或将进一步明 确。 在 9 月月报中，我们认为，在美联储态度转向后，美国经济下行超预期的尾部风 险已经显著降低，在全球财政扩张周期下更应提前布局经济上行的潜在可能，重 点推荐黄金、铜两类大宗商品。9 月金、铜在主要大类资产中表现领先，且在国庆 假期期间继续高歌猛进。展望 10 月，我们认为近期美欧日政局变化或将进一步强 化全球财政扩张叙事：美国因两党在临时拨款议案上无法达成一致而深陷政府关 门危机，若最后两党达成妥协，部分延续医保补贴，则将进一步推高美国财政赤 字；法国总理因财政紧缩政策遭到反对而被迫辞职，未来财政政策可能也趋于扩 张；日本执政党新任总裁高市早苗持有明显的宽货币+宽财政政策主张，同样可能 推动日本财政的进一步扩张。因此，财政扩张支撑下，我们认为全球经济复苏前 景或将进一步明确。 ❑ ...

冠通期货-原油2025年四季报 地缘局势扰动下的增产兑现情况 研究咨询部 苏妙达 时间：2025年9月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 1 ⚫ 目前整体地缘局势仍在局部地区控制，未对原油出口产生更大的影响，不过，以色列袭击卡塔尔震惊国际，巴以停火谈判遥遥无期， 俄乌停火陷入僵局，伊朗核问题仍未解决，地缘局势仍将对原油造成扰动，尤其关注欧美是否会对俄罗斯原油、委内瑞拉原油等敏感 油的买家进行二次制裁。欧盟成员国中匈牙利和斯洛伐克仍有约20万桶/日的俄罗斯原油通过管道进口。若地缘局势升级影响原油生 产或运输，将刺激原油价格快速上涨。供给端，OPEC+坚持逐步增产以维护市场份额，10月仍将计划增产13.7万桶/日，目前实际增产 速度低于计划目标，不过近期其增产步伐在加速。由于三季度中东地区发电等需求强劲，OPEC+增产带来的供应冲击暂未到来，全球 原油库存还未有明显增加。当然也需注意除了沙特、阿联酋，其余OPEC+国家增产能力有限，OPEC+四季度实际增产仍将低于目标速度。 OP ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's stock price reached a record high of 29.94 HKD on September 11, driven by strong performance in gold and copper prices amid global economic recovery expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of 14:13, Zijin Mining's stock rose by 0.9% to 29.26 HKD, equivalent to approximately 26.76 CNY, which is higher than the A-share price, resulting in an AH premium of -4.54% [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to reach 23.3 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 54% [1] - Tianfeng Securities anticipates that the company's profitability will improve in the long term due to the simultaneous rise in both copper and gold prices [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, awaiting demand improvement [6] - The company reported a revenue of 151.66 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 22.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.523 billion yuan, down 37.62% year-on-year [8] - The decline in performance is primarily due to fluctuations in commodity prices and adjustments in business strategy [8] - The company is actively optimizing its business structure and diversifying its service capabilities, which is expected to build a competitive moat [8] - Future growth is anticipated if global economic recovery aligns with increased demand for new energy [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 368.72 billion yuan, 393.85 billion yuan, and 413.85 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 4.03%, 6.81%, and 5.08% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.24 billion yuan, 1.58 billion yuan, and 1.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 98.17%, 27.47%, and 19.53% respectively [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 10.69, 8.39, and 7.02 for 2025-2027 [7] - The company is considered a leader in the domestic bulk commodity supply chain industry, with long-term growth potential and a favorable valuation [8]

Core Insights - The company,卓郎智能, reported a decline in operating performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 1.67 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -200 million [1] Economic Environment - The global economy continues to show a moderate recovery trend, but the business environment is characterized by complex and differentiated challenges [1] - Economic growth is hindered by insufficient momentum and concurrent policy adjustments, leading to significant regional disparities in development [1] Challenges Faced - The company faces increased uncertainty in customer investments due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, exchange rate fluctuations, and tariff policies [1] Strategic Response - Despite the severe challenges, the company is actively adapting with a flexible approach, focusing on areas that can create value [1] - The company emphasizes agility, focus, and continuous innovation to transform external challenges into internal development momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Chengtong Development Group (00217) anticipates a significant decline in its after-tax profit for the first half of 2025, projecting approximately HKD 10 million, which represents a 63% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The expected financial performance for the first half of 2025 is primarily influenced by a slow global economic recovery, ongoing changes in geopolitical and economic landscapes, and a downward trend in domestic interest rates [1] - The tight market for quality assets has led to a substantial decline in revenue and gross profit contribution from the leasing segment [1]

Group 1 - Gold experienced a significant price fluctuation, initially rising by $35 before a substantial pullback, indicating ongoing market volatility and a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1][4] - The current trading range for gold is around $3339, with potential resistance at $3348 and $3375, while support levels are identified at $3322 and $3300 [6][8][9] - After four months of consecutive gains, gold has entered a period of consolidation, with a high volatility pattern around the $3300 mark, suggesting a potential breakout in either direction [9] Group 2 - Recent market movements were influenced by geopolitical events, including Trump's renewed focus on tariffs affecting steel and chips, which may heighten global supply chain concerns and benefit gold prices [10] - The Federal Reserve's recent dovish stance and internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts are critical for global markets, impacting both the dollar and gold prices [11] - The global stock market is showing resilience, with projections indicating a record scale by 2025, as major economies experience simultaneous growth, suggesting a shift towards a high-inflation environment [12]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a clash between two contrasting narratives: expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and a steady global economic recovery [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Behavior and Expectations - Market behavior is characterized by contradictions, with a 6% implied probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, while the U.S. stock market has reached historical highs [2][4]. - The rise in the stock market is not solely driven by a few tech giants but shows broader recovery signs, particularly in small-cap stocks and consumer-related sectors [2][4]. - The current situation reflects a market that is hedging against potential economic downturn risks while simultaneously betting on recovery [4]. Group 2: Employment Report Impact - The upcoming U.S. employment report is expected to force investors to choose between the narratives of "rate cuts" and "recovery," potentially triggering significant capital rotation [5][8]. - A disappointing employment report could undermine the credibility of the recovery narrative, reinforcing expectations for substantial rate cuts and leading to a shift of funds back into bonds and tech stocks [8]. - Conversely, a strong employment report would likely diminish expectations for excessive rate cuts, resulting in a capital rotation from tech stocks to cyclical stocks more closely tied to economic recovery [8]. Group 3: Opportunities in Japan - The report highlights potential opportunities in the Japanese market, noting a strong correlation between the TOPIX index and the U.S. Russell 2000 index [9]. - If global economic recovery expectations prevail, Japanese equities may perform strongly, particularly as Japanese tech stocks are seen as having stronger cyclical attributes and relatively lower valuations compared to U.S. tech stocks [9]. - In this environment, the Japanese bond market may experience a "bear flattening" trend [9].

Global Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from June, marking the end of a two-month upward trend [1] - The PMI has remained below 50% for five consecutive months, indicating continued weakness in global manufacturing and a slight reduction in recovery momentum compared to June [1] Regional Manufacturing Performance - In Europe, the manufacturing PMI slightly increased to above 49%, indicating a slow recovery [2] - In the Americas, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 48%, remaining in the contraction zone for five months [2] - The ISM report highlighted that the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 48% in July, down 1 percentage point from June, with new orders slightly rising but still low [2] Economic Uncertainties - U.S. tariff policies and weak employment data have increased uncertainties regarding economic recovery [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% due to inflation pressures [3] - Rising input prices are leading U.S. manufacturers to adopt a cautious investment approach, with Citibank predicting further profit margin shrinkage due to new tariffs [3] Asian and African Manufacturing Insights - The Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5% in July, slightly down from June, but still indicating expansion [4] - The Asian Development Bank forecasts a 4.7% economic growth rate for 46 developing Asian economies in 2025, despite a slight downward revision [4] - The African manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1%, indicating a sustained recovery, with South Africa and Nigeria showing expansion [5]