商品资源大时代，下一个战略品种在哪里？20260223 摘要 地缘政治扰动和中国企业出海投资意愿减弱导致全球有色矿产资源供给 刚性，叠加降息周期和全球经济复苏，共同推动有色金属价格上涨。全 球性品种因受益于全球供需关系改善，更具投资价值，尤其是在制造业 和工业企稳复苏的背景下。 电力板块因中国电价竞争力强、全产业链成本较低、电力公司成本控制 和盈利能力优异而值得重点推荐。电解铝行业虽依赖进口矿石，但国内 产能限制约束了供应，出口铝材占比高，通过锁定冶炼环节利润，实现 了上下游双重获利。 化工行业预计 2025 年下半年触底反弹，供需变化将带来价格弹性。中 国化工行业已取得较强低价权，未来将向高端化升级。制冷剂行业受环 保政策配额制影响，企业集中度提高，产品提价增加盈利，预计三美股 份业绩将显著增长。 铬盐市场因生产过程受限，下游应用于民用、军用航空等战略领域，需 求有望增长。硫磺市场因油气回收减少导致供应受限，而电池级硫酸镍 生产增加需求，价格持续上涨，且趋势具有长期性。 Q&A 资源品市场在 2025 年的行情表现如何？有哪些特征和变化？ 2025 年资源品市场表现强劲，尤其是有色金属板块，包括金、银、铜、 ...

贝恩还说，美最高法院裁决明确的是总统在相关法律框架下的权限边界，并未消除企业面临的不确 定性。此外，裁决还带来一系列问题，包括美国进口商是否可申请退还已缴纳的关税，以及出口商能否 获得部分退款。 英国工业联合会欧洲与国际事务主管肖恩·麦圭尔表示，实际关税若从10%提高至15%，将"侵蚀企 业利润空间，削弱英国商品在美国市场的竞争力，并给已在更碎片化和不可预测的全球贸易环境中承压 的出口商带来更大压力"。 新华社伦敦/墨尔本2月24日电 综述｜不降反增 英澳反对美新关税措施 新华社记者赵小娜 徐海静 美国最高法院日前裁决，美国《国际紧急经济权力法》未授权总统征收大规模关税。此后，美国总 统特朗普宣布援引其他法律条款对进口商品加征15%关税。英国和澳大利亚相关人士对此表示强烈关 切，认为此举将推高出口成本，削弱企业竞争力，进一步加剧全球贸易环境的不确定性。 特朗普政府宣布新增关税后，除英美去年达成的贸易协议涵盖的商品外，英国输美商品关税税率将 从10%升至15%。澳大利亚与美国的自由贸易协定取消了几乎所有澳大利亚输美商品的关税，如今澳大 利亚产品实际可能面临更高关税。 英国商会贸易政策主管威廉·贝恩23日说，英国 ...

化工ETF（159870），联接基金（A类 014942，C类 014943，I类 022792） 万华化学（600309）、盐湖股份（000792）、藏格矿业（000408）、天赐材料（002709）、华鲁恒升 （600426）、巨化股份（600160）、恒力石化（600346）、宝丰能源（600989）、云天化（600096）、 荣盛石化（002493） 截至02月24日09:45，化工ETF(159870.SZ)上涨1.98%，其关联指数细分化工(000813.CSI)上涨1.97%；主 要成分股中，盐湖股份上涨4.52%，云天化上涨8.24%，万华化学上涨1.52%，兴发集团上涨5.98%，龙 佰集团上涨4.58%。 关联产品： 消息面上，1) 美国最高法院裁定特朗普关税政策违法，但新关税框架生效引发市场波动，短期利好非 美资产，化工行业或受益于关税影响减弱及全球经济复苏预期；2) TMP行业因供应端收缩（万华等厂 商退出产能）及需求旺盛（百川股份排产至3月底/4月）推动价格上涨，相关化工企业成本传导顺畅； 3) 电子布与玻纤行业分化，玻纤需求受风电、基建回暖支撑，头部企业通过产能调整应对市场波动， ...

时间定了，按照国内油价调整机制，每隔10个工作日进行调价，上一次调价时间为2月3日24时，汽柴油分别上涨205元以及195元/吨，当前，国内成品油延 续春节前最后一次上涨后的水平，比如山东92汽油6.9元/升，95汽油7.41元/升，各地成品油汇总数据更新，大家移步下文进行查看！ 调整明 不过，此次油价上涨刚刚落地，新一轮周期重新启动，本轮周期内，原油变化率正向运行，汽柴油预估上涨幅度达到115元/吨，截至2026年2月18日，新周 期完成90%，油价距离"3连涨"仅差一步之遥，但是，距离本次调价，还剩6天时间，市场尚有变化，尤其是，春节期间，原油市场出现震荡下跌的走势，此 次调价，汽柴油仍有一定搁浅的机会！具体分析如下： 在原油市场，春节前最后一个工作日，WTI原油以及布油报价在62.89~67.75美元/桶，相比周期内原油报价65.14~69.46美元/桶，国际油价重心冲高回落！目 前，原油市场呈现多空并存的局面，市场观点较为分歧，但是，隔夜原油恢复下跌！ 一方面，由于国际局势不稳，东欧局势紧张，俄乌冲突持续，俄罗斯原油出口面临美西方的制裁，而中东局势依然紧张，美国以及以色列或对伊朗采取行 动，而伊朗存在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing PMI rose to 51% in January 2026, indicating a significant improvement in manufacturing activity after ten consecutive months below 50% [1][3]. Regional Summaries Africa - The manufacturing PMI in Africa fell to 49.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to contraction [4]. - Major countries like Egypt and Nigeria saw their PMIs drop below 50, while South Africa's PMI increased but remained below the threshold [4]. - Challenges such as trade friction, geopolitical conflicts, and high sovereign debt ratios are hindering Africa's economic recovery, although potential for growth remains through regional integration and structural reforms [4]. Europe - Europe's manufacturing PMI reached 50%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, ending a trend of being below 50 since August 2022 [5][6]. - Seasonal factors, such as post-holiday restocking, contributed to this increase, with countries like the UK, France, and Greece showing improvements [5][6]. - Despite the recovery, the European economy is expected to grow slowly, with inflation pressures easing and the ECB projecting a decline in inflation rates [6]. Asia - Asia's manufacturing PMI was stable at 51%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, maintaining a position above 50 for nine consecutive months [7]. - Countries like India and several ASEAN nations reported PMIs above 50, indicating continued expansion [7]. - The IMF predicts that emerging markets in Asia will remain key drivers of global economic growth, with expected growth rates above 4% [7]. Americas - The manufacturing PMI in the Americas rose to 51.8%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points, marking a significant recovery after ten months below 50 [8][9]. - The rise was primarily driven by improvements in the US and Canadian manufacturing sectors, with the US PMI reaching 52.6% [8][9]. - Despite the positive trends, concerns remain regarding the sustainability of this recovery, particularly in light of ongoing trade tensions and consumer confidence issues in the US [9].

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for January 2026 shows a significant improvement, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector after a prolonged period of low performance [1] Regional Analysis - The global manufacturing PMI stands at 51%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, marking the end of a 10-month trend below 50% [1] - The manufacturing PMI for Africa has decreased to 49.6%, indicating contraction in the region [1] - Europe's manufacturing PMI has risen to 50%, suggesting stabilization in the sector [1] - Asia's manufacturing PMI has slightly decreased to 51%, reflecting a marginal decline [1] - The Americas' manufacturing PMI has increased to 51.8%, indicating growth in manufacturing activity [1] Expert Commentary - Experts suggest that despite the improvement in the PMI, the overall global economy will continue to experience a slow recovery due to persistent insufficient effective demand in the market [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil industry**, focusing on **global oil prices**, **OPEC strategies**, and **U.S. shale oil production** dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Fluctuations**: Oil prices were temporarily pushed to $70 due to geopolitical events and cold weather, but the divergence in gold-oil and copper-oil ratios indicates a shift in market drivers. Gold is influenced more by U.S. dollar credit and central bank purchases, while copper benefits from AI and data center demand, unlike oil which has different demand elasticity [1][3][4]. - **U.S. Shale Oil Production Challenges**: U.S. shale oil production faces rising costs ($65-70 per barrel) and limited willingness to increase output due to constrained profit margins. Inventory wells have dropped to a ten-year low, indicating limited future production capacity without high oil prices to support it [5][6]. - **OPEC's Production Strategy**: OPEC plans to increase production after April 2025 to maintain market share, reflecting its flexibility in strategy. However, it prefers to maintain production cuts to support oil prices, with actual production increases being lower than announced [6][8]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and Venezuela, could lead to short-term spikes in oil prices, potentially reaching $75 to $80 if significant supply disruptions occur. However, such scenarios are considered low probability, and prices are expected to revert to around $60 post-conflict [9][10]. - **Global Oil Demand Trends**: Global oil demand growth is slowing, with a notable divergence from GDP growth rates. Factors such as increased electrification and fuel efficiency are contributing to this trend. EIA forecasts suggest annual oil demand growth will fluctuate around 1 million barrels, supported by China's inventory replenishment starting in 2025 [11][12]. Other Important Insights - **Investment and Capital Expenditure Trends**: There is a significant reduction in the proportion of cash flow allocated for reinvestment, dropping from 70% to below 50%, which limits supply-side pressures even if oil prices remain high [8]. - **Market Dynamics**: The oil market is expected to exhibit a "top and bottom" pattern, with prices fluctuating between $60 and $65 per barrel in the coming years. Above $70, both OPEC and U.S. shale may increase production, while below $60, both will likely cut back to support prices [12].

Group 1 - The former WTO Director-General, Lamy, criticizes the trade protectionist measures taken by the United States, stating they violate commitments made within the WTO framework and urges the international community to uphold the multilateral trade system and improve global trade rules [1][3] - Lamy emphasizes that despite the U.S. actions, global trade rule enhancement can continue without U.S. involvement, highlighting the importance of maintaining a calm approach amidst rising protectionism [1] - China's economic growth, projected to exceed 140 trillion RMB in 2025 with a year-on-year increase of 5%, is viewed as a stabilizing factor for the global economy, encouraging other countries to welcome Chinese investments [1][5] Group 2 - Lamy notes that while China's 5% growth rate is lower than the previous 10%, the economic scale associated with this growth is significantly larger than that of two decades ago, indicating a substantial impact on the global economy [3] - The innovations in digital technology, green technology, and photovoltaic sectors from China are recognized for providing high-quality products at relatively low prices, which can benefit other countries [3] - Strengthening economic and trade cooperation with China is seen as a pragmatic choice for Europe and other nations to stabilize international market expectations and promote global economic stability [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have recently reached historical highs around 5111 but have experienced corrections, with fluctuations influenced by global economic recovery, inflation, and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The market sentiment is mixed, with support for gold stemming from ongoing economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures in some countries, while the strength of the US dollar and unclear timelines for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts pose challenges [1] - Technically, gold maintains a bullish trend on the daily chart, but momentum has weakened after consecutive gains, indicating a potential for short-term corrections [1] Group 2 - Short-term support levels for gold are identified at 5010-5015 and 4985-4990, with a strategy focused on buying on dips rather than assuming a trend reversal during corrections [3] - The recommended trading strategy includes light buying at 5010-5015, with additional purchases at 4990-4995, setting a stop-loss at 4986, and targeting levels between 5090-5100 [3]

Group 1 - The former WTO Director-General, Lamy, criticizes the trade protectionist measures taken by the United States, stating they violate commitments made within the WTO framework and urges the international community to uphold the multilateral trade system and improve global trade rules [1][3] - Lamy emphasizes that despite the U.S. actions, global trade rule enhancement can continue without U.S. involvement, highlighting the importance of maintaining a calm approach amidst rising protectionism [1] - China's economic growth, projected to exceed 140 trillion RMB in 2025 with a 5% year-on-year increase, is viewed as significant for global economic stability, especially in the context of ongoing uncertainties in the global economy [5] Group 2 - Lamy notes that while China's 5% growth rate is lower than the previous 10%, the economic scale associated with this growth is much larger than it was two decades ago, indicating a substantial impact on the global economy [3] - The innovations in digital technology, green technology, and photovoltaic sectors from China are recognized for providing high-quality products at relatively low prices, which can benefit other countries [3] - Strengthening economic cooperation with China is seen as a pragmatic choice for Europe and other nations to stabilize international market expectations and promote global economic stability [5]