Core Viewpoint - The recent changes in Beijing's real estate market, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, indicate a potential recovery following the implementation of new policies aimed at stimulating the market. The decrease in listing volume suggests a shift in owner expectations and a possible market bottoming out, with a forecast for a mild recovery post-Spring Festival in 2026 [1][5][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - The listing volume of second-hand homes in Beijing has significantly decreased over the past two months, with a reduction of over 6,000 units in the last month alone, down from a peak of 160,000 units [1][4]. - As of January 28, 2026, the total number of second-hand homes listed in Beijing is approximately 140,000, a decline from 146,000 in December 2025 and 155,000 in August 2025, indicating a downward trend in listings [4][5]. - The average daily new listings post-policy implementation (December 25, 2025 - January 26, 2026) is 442 units, which is a 17.7% decrease compared to the three months prior [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Market - The decline in listing volume is attributed to several factors, including policy support, a recovery in transactions, changes in owner sentiment, and structural differentiation in the market [5]. - The new policies introduced at the end of 2025 have reshaped market expectations, leading to increased transaction volumes and a shift in owner strategies from aggressive price cuts to a more selective approach [5][10]. - The reduction in new supply from new developments has made second-hand homes more attractive, particularly in areas with strong educational resources, which have seen increased transactions [5][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience a mild recovery after the Spring Festival, driven by the gradual impact of the new policies on buyer sentiment and purchasing power [10]. - The overall market recovery is anticipated to be gradual, with sustained improvements dependent on substantial changes in market expectations [10]. - The first quarter typically sees increased activity from first-time buyers, and this trend is expected to continue, particularly for entry-level housing in suburban areas [8][10].

Group 1 - The central bank has announced a significant monetary easing measure by initiating 900 billion yuan of medium-term lending facilities with a one-year term, which is expected to release more funds into the market, providing substantial support for the economy and market stability [1] - The successful development of fiber chips by Chinese scientists is expected to bring positive impacts to the semiconductor and related industries, while the potential independent listing of Alibaba's Pingtouge adds new vitality to the chip sector [1] - The current market is in the process of bottoming out, with a high probability of continued upward movement, supported by strong performances in overseas markets and the recent surge in gold and silver prices, which have risen by 3.7% and 6% respectively, reaching historical highs [1] Group 2 - The regulatory stance indicates that the trend of market stability remains unchanged, but there may be a control over the pace of healthy market operations, making a fluctuating upward trend more suitable for the current market environment [2] - The commercial aerospace and software sectors, which were previously identified for short-term pullbacks, are beginning to stabilize, with major short-selling pressures gradually dissipating, indicating a trend of rebound and presenting short-term opportunities [2] - The market is currently in a bottoming process and is likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with strategies focusing on identifying low-position opportunities for participation and layout [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the market is in a state of weak reality and weak expectation. With the arrival of rainy seasons and high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken and inventory may slightly increase, but prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. Technically, the futures price shows a stabilizing signal [2]. - For the iron ore sector, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron - water output is expected to decline further. The supply is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. High port inventory and a high proportion of traded ore inventory put pressure on futures prices, and the futures price is in a large - range oscillation pattern [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Market Background**: The Israel - Iran conflict continues, and crude oil prices have risen sharply and then fallen. National Bureau of Statistics data shows that housing prices in all tiers have declined month - on - month, indicating that the real estate market is still at the bottoming stage [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: MySteel data shows that this week, rebar production has increased, factory inventory has decreased, social inventory has continued to decline, total inventory has decreased, and apparent demand has continued to decline month - on - month, indicating a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has rebounded after hitting the bottom, showing a stabilizing signal [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close long positions on rallies and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Short - term long positions can be taken after a pullback [2]. - **Data Details**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices have increased slightly compared to last week, while spot prices have mostly decreased. The basis and spreads of futures contracts have changed, and the production, inventory, and trading volume of related steel products have also shown different trends. For example, the national building steel trading volume (7 - day moving average) has decreased significantly [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Background**: The Israel - Iran conflict continues without signs of easing, and oil prices have rebounded sharply and then fallen. The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron - water output is expected to decline further [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global shipment of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline rate has slowed down, and the proportion of traded ore inventory is high, putting pressure on futures prices [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a large - range oscillation pattern [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, go long after a pullback, and avoid chasing up or selling down [5]. - **Data Details**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have changed, and the basis, futures spreads, and variety spreads have also fluctuated. Overseas shipment volumes, sea freight, exchange rates, port inventory, and other data have also shown different trends. For example, Australian iron ore shipments have decreased, while Brazilian shipments have increased [5]. Industry News - As of the week of June 19, rebar production has increased from a decline, factory inventory has decreased for the fourth consecutive week, social inventory has decreased for the fifteenth consecutive week, and apparent demand has decreased for the third consecutive week [8]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in the country is - 23 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [8]. - As of June 19, the total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises has increased, reaching an 8 - and - a - half - month high, and the inventory of Chinese pulp at mainstream ports has also increased slightly [8].