随着去年底出台的北京楼市新政显效，北京二手房成交量有所上涨，二手房挂牌量也出现新变化。 业内人士认为，近期北京二手房挂牌量有所回落，一定程度表明业主预期出现积极变化，市场筑底信号初显。预计春节后北京二手房市场或出现 温和复苏态势，2026年北京房地产市场整体将呈现"震荡筑底、结构性回暖"的运行态势。 证券时报记者多方采访了解到，最近两个月，北京二手房挂牌量明显回落，近一个月减少了6000多套，较市场最高点的16万套更是减少超过2万 套。 近2个月挂牌量明显回落 "最近二手房成交量多了，导致挂牌量下降了。"某头部中介北京通州区门店的工作人员告诉记者，价格低点的房子都卖出去了，现在成交价不会 像之前那样一套比一套低，谈价比较困难了。有部分业主觉得现在价格低于心理价位太多，选择主动下架房源，还有部分业主选择把房子出租。 北京东城区、丰台区、海淀区等多家中介门店的工作人员均对记者表达了类似的观点。 中原地产首席分析师张大伟对记者表示，最近两个月，北京二手房挂牌量确实回落了。据他统计，截至2026年1月28日，北京整个市场二手房挂 牌量约 14万套，较2025年12月的14.6万套减少了6000多套，距离2025年8月 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has announced a significant monetary easing measure by initiating 900 billion yuan of medium-term lending facilities with a one-year term, which is expected to release more funds into the market, providing substantial support for the economy and market stability [1] - The successful development of fiber chips by Chinese scientists is expected to bring positive impacts to the semiconductor and related industries, while the potential independent listing of Alibaba's Pingtouge adds new vitality to the chip sector [1] - The current market is in the process of bottoming out, with a high probability of continued upward movement, supported by strong performances in overseas markets and the recent surge in gold and silver prices, which have risen by 3.7% and 6% respectively, reaching historical highs [1] Group 2 - The regulatory stance indicates that the trend of market stability remains unchanged, but there may be a control over the pace of healthy market operations, making a fluctuating upward trend more suitable for the current market environment [2] - The commercial aerospace and software sectors, which were previously identified for short-term pullbacks, are beginning to stabilize, with major short-selling pressures gradually dissipating, indicating a trend of rebound and presenting short-term opportunities [2] - The market is currently in a bottoming process and is likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with strategies focusing on identifying low-position opportunities for participation and layout [2]

报告导读： 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月20日08时17分 投资咨询系列报告 消息面上，以伊冲突继续，目前尚未看到缓和的迹象，油价大幅反弹后回落。目前钢厂盈利率尚可，上周 247 家钢厂铁水产量超过 241.6 万吨，环 比下降 0.2 万吨，铁水明显高于去年同期水平。随着下游消费高峰期结束以及钢厂的限产 ，预计近期铁水产量将进一步回落。供应端，全球发运处 于相对高位且在沿着季节性回升趋势不断上升 。当前港口库存降速趋缓，且贸易矿库存比例偏高，对期价有明显的压力。技术面上，期价目前仍处 于大区间震荡格局 操作建议： 维持观望，回调后做多，不可以追涨杀跌 以伊冲突在继续，原油价格大幅拉升后回落。本周国家统计局公布的数据显示，各线房价环比均回落，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于筑底的过程中 。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所上市，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比继续回落，数据显示目前 处于供需双弱的状态。从需求的季节性规律看，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易 的是弱现实和弱预期， ...