地缘政治动荡曾是油价飙升最可靠的催化剂，但这一旧有逻辑正在被新的市场现实彻底改写。随着美国 页岩油革命彻底重塑全球能源供应版图，以及受制裁石油"影子市场"的常态化，传统的地缘政治风险溢 价逻辑已发生根本性逆转。 据新华社和央视新闻报道，当地时间1月3日中午（北京时间1月4日凌晨），美国总统特朗普、国防部长 赫格塞思在佛罗里达州海湖庄园就美军对委内瑞拉动武、将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗控制并移送出境举行记 者会。据环球时报综合伊朗媒体1日报道，伊朗两个省份发生骚乱，已造成至少3人死亡、13人受伤。 据《华尔街日报》作者 Spencer Jakab 5日撰文分析，在过去，类似的事件——如23年前委内瑞拉针对前 总统查韦斯的未遂政变，或1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命——曾分别导致油价在数月内飙升近40%和150%。 然而，面对当前的局势，原油市场反应冷淡。原油价格刚刚经历了史无前例的连续三年下跌，且随着 OPEC逐步退出自愿减产措施，市场仍处于严重的供应过剩状态。如今的委内瑞拉原油产量仅占全球的 不到1%，约为每日90万桶，与过去超过3%的市场份额不可同日而语。委内瑞拉和伊朗虽为OPEC创始 成员国，但其对市场的影响力已大幅削弱 ...

（来源：吴说） 来源：市场资讯 汇丰最新报告称，美国围绕"美国股票代币化"监管的争论加速升级，传统金融机构与加密行业在是否应 将 DeFi 交易基础设施视作传统交易所上立场对立。报告指出，Citadel Securities 向 SEC 递交 13 页文 件，主张多数 DeFi 协议应按交易所监管，否则将导致监管套利与更弱的"影子市场"。加密行业则以 Coinbase 全球监管政策副总裁 Scott Bauguess 为代表，呼吁制定更符合去中心化模型的规则。汇丰表 示，SEC 最终取向仍不明确，但预计不会允许面向美国用户的链上股票市场享有明显低于传统交易所 的监管强度，监管沙盒或成为可行方案。(CoinDesk) ...

Core Insights - Trump publicly stated that the Indian Prime Minister has committed to stopping the purchase of Russian oil, although this claim has not been confirmed by India, indicating an escalation in U.S. pressure on New Delhi [1] - Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, India has become a key buyer of Russian crude oil, with an average daily import of 1.9 million barrels in the first nine months of 2025, accounting for 40% of Russia's total exports [1] - The trade relationship has reshaped global oil flows and has been a significant source of profit for Indian refining companies [1] U.S. Pressure on India - The U.S. has imposed a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods due to its purchase of Russian oil, directly impacting India's exports to the U.S., which is its largest trading partner with a bilateral trade volume of $128.8 billion in 2024 [3] - The EU's new sanctions will take effect on January 21, 2026, banning imports of fuels refined from Russian crude, which will cut off a significant profit source for Indian refining companies, as the European market accounts for over one-third of India's diesel and aviation fuel exports [3] India-Russia Energy Cooperation - India has established a deep industrial chain with Russia, exemplified by Reliance Industries signing a 10-year supply agreement with Russian state oil company, supplying nearly 500,000 barrels per day [5] - The agreement includes a significant annual transaction value of approximately $13 billion, making it difficult for India to reduce its Russian oil imports [5] India's Negotiation Strategy - India is seeking leverage in negotiations with the U.S., stating that any cessation of Russian oil imports must be accompanied by the lifting of oil sanctions on Iran and Venezuela to ensure its energy supply stability [7] - The share of Russian oil in India's total imports has surged from 2% before the conflict to 44%, with daily imports expected to reach a historical peak of 2.07 million barrels by July 2025 [7] China's Role in Russian Oil Imports - China, as the largest buyer of Russian oil, imported an average of 2.1 million barrels per day from January to September 2025, accounting for 18% of its total crude imports [10] - However, China's energy import diversification strategy limits its ability to absorb additional Russian oil, as it aims to keep imports from any single country below 20% [12] Shadow Market for Russian Oil - With both India and China unable to fully absorb the potential increase in Russian oil exports, a burgeoning shadow market has emerged as a primary outlet for Russian crude [14] - This shadow fleet, consisting of approximately 650 aging oil tankers, handles 65% of Russia's daily crude oil exports, utilizing complex operations to obscure the origin of the oil [16]