大庆古龙陆相页岩油国家级示范区地处松辽盆地北部，位于黑龙江省大庆市杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县境 内，覆盖面积2778 平方公里。目前，大庆古龙页岩油日产超3500 吨，实现了从"探明储量"到"有效开 发"的快速跨越。大庆油田2021年启动古龙页岩油国家级示范区建设，2022 年示范区进入规模化试采初 期，全年产油近10 万吨。2024 年全年产油超40 万吨，实现连续三年产量翻番的跨越式发展。截至目 前，示范区累计完钻水平井398 口，累产油超140 万吨。此次新增探明储量将为2025 年百万吨级国家级 示范区建成提供核心资源保障。 中国石油引领我国页岩油革命，2025 年产量预计突破680 万吨。中国石油于2018 年12 月启动陆相页岩 油革命，2021 年在鄂尔多斯盆地探明了地质储量超10 亿吨级的庆城页岩油田；2023 年完成《中国石油 推动页岩油革命行动方案》编制，提出"十四五"末打造3～5 个整装规模效益建产示范区。2024 年，中 国石油页岩油产量达到509.6 万吨，同比增长30%，2025 年中国石油页岩油产量预计将突破680 万吨， 同比增长33%以上，页岩油产量的增长有望为公司石油产量的稳中有 ...

2025 年 9 月 30 日 ——中国石油（601857.SH/0857.HK）公告点评 要点 事件：中国石油集团公众号消息，大庆古龙陆相页岩油国家级示范区新增 1.58 亿吨页岩油探明储量。 点评： 公司研究 古龙页岩油示范区新增 1.58 亿吨探明储量，助力页岩油开发突破 | 指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 30,110 | 29,380 | 28,981 | 28,895 | 29,250 | | 营业收入增长率 | -7.04% | -2.43% | -1.36% | -0.30% | 1.23% | | 归母净利润（亿元） | 1,611 | 1,647 | 1,661 | 1,712 | 1,757 | | 归母净利润增长率 | 7.88% | 2.19% | 0.88% | 3.04% | 2.62% | | EPS（元） | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.96 | | ROE（归属母公司)（摊薄） | 11. ...

Group 1: Global Oil Production Trends - The U.S. daily oil production reached a historic high of 13.58 million barrels, with Texas contributing 5.72 million barrels, accounting for nearly 40% of total U.S. production [2] - Russia maintained an oil production level of 250 million tons in the first half of 2025, with a daily output of 9.5 million barrels, despite a 3.5% decline compared to the previous year [3] - China's domestic crude oil production was approximately 10.847 million tons in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [4] Group 2: Key Players in the Oil Industry - The three major Chinese state-owned enterprises—PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC—dominate domestic oil extraction, with PetroChina producing 395.2 million barrels and Sinopec achieving a total oil and gas output of 126 million barrels in the first half of 2025 [8] - Rosneft, the largest oil company in Russia, reported a liquid hydrocarbon production of 89.3 million tons in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Dynamics and Market Implications - The global oil market is characterized by "supply looseness and weak demand," with predictions of an average daily change in global crude oil inventory of 301,600 barrels in 2025 [6] - China’s oil imports reached 280 million tons in the first half of 2025, with a high dependency rate of 72.1% on foreign oil [6] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with 47% of Russia's crude oil exports directed to China, and energy trade between China and Russia expected to exceed $300 billion by 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Insights - The oil market is still under the influence of the shale oil era, with the current small cycle nearing its end, requiring a breaking point and clearing process [1] - The coal inventory cycle is nearing completion, with prices expected to stabilize but limited rebound potential due to marginal supply constraints [2] - Natural gas prices remain high compared to historical averages, with a need for new capacity to balance supply and demand in the coming years [3] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction: What Position Are Energy Products in the Cycle? - Historical price cycles of oil, gas, and coal show strong consistency, with significant turning points often driven by macroeconomic factors or geopolitical events [11] 2. What Stage is the Oil Big Cycle in? - The oil market has experienced two and a half major cycles since the 1970s, with the current cycle characterized by the ongoing impact of the shale oil revolution [12][13] - The current oil price is fluctuating between $60 and $70 per barrel, with expectations of a final drop before a potential rebound [13][15] - The shale oil sector is entering a rational expansion phase, with production growth expected to slow down [28] 3. Natural Gas Still Awaiting Capacity Cycle to Land - Oil prices are approaching 2015-2017 lows, while natural gas prices remain significantly higher, indicating a longer time needed for supply rebalancing [34] - Global LNG export capacity is expected to increase significantly from 2025 to 2028, leading to a more relaxed supply situation [37] 4. Coal Has Completed an Inventory Cycle, Prices May Stabilize but Lack Elasticity - Domestic coal prices have returned to 2015 lows when adjusted for inflation, indicating a potential price floor [49] - The coal inventory cycle has completed a full cycle, with expectations of a shift to active destocking by 2025 [51] - China's coal consumption is projected to see minimal growth, leading to a significant reduction in coal imports [56][62]

Core Insights - The discovery of a new shale oil field in Heilongjiang Province, China, with reserves exceeding 1 billion tons, has been hailed as a significant development for the country's energy security and is referred to as "Little Dubai" [1][7] - The global energy landscape is shifting, with countries, including the U.S., actively seeking alternative energy sources due to the finite nature of oil resources [3][6] - The U.S. shale oil revolution has transformed its energy supply dynamics, reducing reliance on Middle Eastern oil and enabling commercial exports, which has had a profound impact on global oil markets [6] Industry Implications - The discovery of the Gulong shale oil field is expected to alleviate China's energy supply pressures and reduce its dependence on oil imports, which have been complicated by international geopolitical tensions [8][12] - The development of shale oil in China faces significant technical challenges, particularly due to deeper deposits compared to the U.S., necessitating independent innovation in extraction technologies [10][12] - Learning from the U.S. experience, China may benefit from adopting similar strategies, such as prioritizing the extraction of the most productive areas and providing policy support for the shale oil industry [15][14] Technological Challenges - The successful extraction of shale oil relies on advanced technologies, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which have taken decades to develop in the U.S. [10][15] - China's shale oil deposits are typically located over 2000 meters underground, presenting greater technical hurdles that require tailored solutions [12][14] - Ongoing research and development in shale oil extraction technologies are crucial for achieving efficient and stable production in China [12][17]