行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 能源品处于周期什么位置？ 原油——大周期仍在页岩油时代，小周期还需等一个破位 原油历史经历了三轮大周期——1970s 的产油国崛起大滞胀、1980-90s 的 石油私有化和大缓和；2000s 的中国需求叠加"阿拉伯之春"。到 2010s 之 后进入页岩油革命时代。虽然 2020s 经历了疫情、俄乌等大事件，但总体来 讲，到 2025 年石油市场仍然笼罩在页岩油大时代的余威中。 小周期来讲，自从美国恢复石油出口之后的 10 年里，看起来似乎五年为一 轮小周期，是页岩油的扩张——收缩周期。目前已经走到 2020-2025 年本 轮小周期的尾声阶段，只差一个破位和出清的过程。 煤炭——走完一个库存周期，底部或已现，但边际供给限制反弹空间 煤炭的产能周期具有政策属性，而库存周期具有市场属性。目前库存周期接 近走完一个轮回。从 2021 年的被动去库，到 2022 年的主动加库，到 2023/24 年的被动加库，到 2025 年进入主动去库。 动力煤 2025 年的供需压力是不言而喻的。供给端的负反馈已经出现，价格 或基本筑底。高成本的供应者（主要是距离消费地远的）包 ...

Core Insights - The discovery of a new shale oil field in Heilongjiang Province, China, with reserves exceeding 1 billion tons, has been hailed as a significant development for the country's energy security and is referred to as "Little Dubai" [1][7] - The global energy landscape is shifting, with countries, including the U.S., actively seeking alternative energy sources due to the finite nature of oil resources [3][6] - The U.S. shale oil revolution has transformed its energy supply dynamics, reducing reliance on Middle Eastern oil and enabling commercial exports, which has had a profound impact on global oil markets [6] Industry Implications - The discovery of the Gulong shale oil field is expected to alleviate China's energy supply pressures and reduce its dependence on oil imports, which have been complicated by international geopolitical tensions [8][12] - The development of shale oil in China faces significant technical challenges, particularly due to deeper deposits compared to the U.S., necessitating independent innovation in extraction technologies [10][12] - Learning from the U.S. experience, China may benefit from adopting similar strategies, such as prioritizing the extraction of the most productive areas and providing policy support for the shale oil industry [15][14] Technological Challenges - The successful extraction of shale oil relies on advanced technologies, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which have taken decades to develop in the U.S. [10][15] - China's shale oil deposits are typically located over 2000 meters underground, presenting greater technical hurdles that require tailored solutions [12][14] - Ongoing research and development in shale oil extraction technologies are crucial for achieving efficient and stable production in China [12][17]