美国私募信贷惊雷：120亿美元债务瞬间爆雷，下一个"雷曼时刻"？ 2025年9月28日，美国汽车零部件制造商First Brands Group的破产申请，犹如一颗投入平静湖面的巨石，在华尔街激起千层浪。 这家非上市公司留下的120亿美元复杂债务，不仅暴露了私募信贷市场的深层风险，更让市场惊呼——"2008年次贷危机是否正在 私募领域重演？" 一、First Brands破产：私募信贷的"完美风暴"样本 1. 债务黑箱的崩塌 First Brands的破产文件显示，其债务结构包含58亿美元杠杆贷款及62亿美元表外融资，涉及数十家私募基金、CLO（贷款抵押债 券）管理人和特殊目的实体（SPE）。其中： - 交叉担保陷阱：创始人帕特里克·詹姆斯通过同一系列LLC同时控制集团及表外实体，形成"自融循环"； - 抵押物迷局：调查发现同一批应收账款被多次质押，债务抵押物可能被"混合处理"（commingled）； - 信息黑洞：作为非上市公司，其财报仅对签署保密协议的机构开放，高盛交易员在破产前几小时才察觉异常。 2. 高收益背后的致命诱惑 私募信贷市场近年以8%-10%的年化回报吸引全球资本，但First Brand ...

OKX 的作风给我感觉就是有点太专注技术和产品了，导致有时候和资产端有点脱离。我在很长一段时间内都并未意识到，以 Hyperliquid 为代表的一类 perpdex 更像是利用监管漏洞进行监管套利的 CEX，和以往的 GMX 等产品有着比较大的差异但同时也是优越性。现在不可否认的是这轮 perpdex 的资产炒作热很成功，市场对这一类新叙事有着明显偏好而 Star @star_okx 的核心观点很显然，是认为未来有可能这部分也会被纳入监管。但这并不妨碍在未纳入监管的红利期中，perpdex 能够捕获非常大一块无 KYC 用户和无需合规监管的资产自 BN Alpha 上线后，除币安之外的交易所不同程度遇到了交易量和上币费用等问题的挤压。或许未来每个 CEX 都会有自己的 perpdex 来卷这一大块无 KYC 用户从吸引用户的手法来说：一个有代币激励的高控筹模型能够产生非常大的补贴激励——吸引用户使用交手续费——手续费回购代币形成现货买压。这看来是一套行之有效的飞轮模型，现如今 $OKB 也已 CEX 主体进行了拆分，如果以 $OKB 为基础或者是自拉一个 perpdex 代币，都是可能的补贴飞轮解决方案，很 ...

智通财经APP获悉，法国证券监管机构表示，可能会试图阻止在其他欧盟国家获得许可的加密货币公司 在国内开展业务。此举旨在推动将监管权转移至欧盟的中央证券监管机构，以消除成员国之间监管差异 带来的监管缺口风险。 在周一的报告中，法国、意大利以及奥地利的监管机构均呼吁欧洲立法者引入一个机制，将权力转移给 ESMA。这些机构认为，直接的欧洲监管将能更好地保护投资者。不过，法国、意大利和奥地利的监管 机构并未提供监管机构对规则有不同的解读的具体例子。 法国金融市场管理局(AMF)主席Marie-Anne Barbat-Layani表示，根据欧盟的新监管制度，加密货币公司 正在寻找拥有更宽松许可标准的司法管辖区。 这三家监管机构表示："该规则实施的最初几个月揭示了各国监管机构对加密市场监管方式的显着差 异。" AMF担心，在今年生效的具有里程碑意义的数字资产规则框架下，加密货币公司正寻求从欧盟各成员 国获得许可证，以便将其作为在 27 个成员国范围内运营的"通行证"。该法规已经暴露出各国监管机构 在应用这些规则方面存在的不一致之处，引发了有关某些许可证发放速度过快以及跨境公司是否得到充 分监管等问题的质疑。 监管缺口引关 ...

事实上，早前银保监会召开的信托监管工作会议上，透露了2022年将继续压降信托通道业务及违规 融资类业务规模，但具体的压降规模指标还没有给予明确的指导。根据68家信托公司2020年财报数据， 可查到年报数据的60家信托公司披露了信托资产中投向房地产业务的规模及占比。 从相关数据来看，部分信托公司房地产业务在资产分布中的占比接近50%，多数信托公司的房地产 业务占比主要集中在30%以内。 财产信托业务，是指委托人将其合法所有的财产或财产权（包括各种动产、不动产和其他权益等） 交付给信托公司设立信托，由信托公司作为受托人，按照委托人意愿，为受益人的利益，根据信托文件 的约定进行管理、运用和处分的业务。 中国信托业协会数据显示，行业管理财产信托正在快速增长。截至2021年底，管理财产信托规模增 至5.54万亿元，比上年末增加了1.36万亿元，增幅高达32.53%；占比进一步提升到26.98%，比上年末上 升6.56个百分点，规模与占比增幅均为近年来最大。与2017年4.34万亿元规模和16.53%占比相比，管理 财产信托四年间规模总计增长了27.77%，占比总计提升了10.45个百分点。 对此，业内专家认为，传统意义 ...

更重要的是，谷歌这笔"买路钱"还意外地帮他们筑起了一道"护城河"。 人工智能法案的合规要求，特别是涉及透明度、版权和安全措施的部分，非常复杂且成本高昂。像谷歌 这样拥有庞大法务团队、海量资源和成熟合规体系的大公司，虽然也要投入，但相对有能力消化这些成 本。 然而，对于那些资金和人力都有限的竞争对手，尤其是欧洲本土的中小型人工智能初创公司，这些合规 要求就是一道难以逾越的高墙。 谷歌在7月30日宣布，它将和包括美国人工智能公司在内的多家公司一起，签署欧盟推出的《通用人工 智能行为准则》。谷歌表示，虽然签署了这份自愿性的指导规范（旨在为欧盟重要的人工智能法案提供 指引），但它仍然担心欧盟的《人工智能法案》和这个《行为准则》可能会拖慢欧洲人工智能技术的进 步和实际应用。 谷歌承诺会与欧盟的人工智能监管机构合作，努力让这些规则跟上人工智能快速发展的步伐。 实际上，这是谷歌经过深思熟虑后做出的一项精明的战略投资。 他们公开表达了对规则可能抑制创新的担忧，这确实是他们真实看法的一部分，但选择签字这个行动本 身恰恰说明，在他们内部的精密计算中，这些潜在的合规开支是值得付出的代价，因为它买到了更重要 的东西：确保未来在欧洲市 ...

Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved the registration of monthly average futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene at the Dalian Commodity Exchange [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is actively promoting the research and listing of platinum, palladium, and lithium hydroxide futures, expected to launch this year [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The number of ETFs with over 10 billion yuan in assets has surpassed 90, with the total ETF scale exceeding 4.6 trillion yuan, driven by thematic products in technology, dividends, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Bond funds are facing significant redemption pressure, with over 200 billion yuan in bond sales in the first four days of the week, including nearly 100 billion yuan in a single day [2] Group 3: Insurance Sector - The preset interest rate for traditional life insurance products has been lowered by 50 basis points to 2.0%, while the guaranteed interest rate cap for participating insurance has been reduced to 1.75% [3] Group 4: Company Performance - IMAX China reported a record 25 million moviegoers in the first half of 2025, generating approximately 416 million yuan in revenue, doubling the box office compared to the same period last year [4] - LVMH's net profit for the first half of 2025 fell by 22% to 5.7 billion euros, with a significant decline in sales in Japan due to currency appreciation [4] - Vanke has successfully sold the Shanghai Jinqiao Wanchuang Center project, with market speculation suggesting a transaction price of around 1.4 billion yuan [5] - China Communications Construction Company signed new contracts worth 991.05 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.14% [5] - Fudan Fuhua terminated the transfer of a 28% stake in a subsidiary due to a lack of interested buyers [6] - Feima International received 437 million yuan in performance compensation from its controlling shareholder [7] - Shanghai Construction Group reported a net profit of 710 million yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of 14.04% [8] - Funi Co., Ltd. achieved a net profit of 1.337 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 12.48% [10] - Western Mining reported a net profit of 1.869 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a growth of 15% [11] - Bomaike's net profit dropped by 80.42% to 12.39 million yuan in the first half of the year [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Local Asset Management Companies" aims to provide institutional support for the high-quality development of local AMCs, addressing issues such as business diversification, risk accumulation, and regulatory arbitrage that threaten their stability and the regional financial system [1][6]. Group 1: Development and Challenges of Local AMCs - Local AMCs have significantly grown in scale, with 59 established across all provinces except Tibet, and total assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan, playing a crucial role in mitigating regional financial risks [2][3]. - They have disposed of over 5 trillion yuan in non-performing assets, demonstrating their importance in resolving banking sector issues and supporting the real economy [2]. - However, local AMCs face challenges such as blurred business boundaries, weak risk management, and a single profit model, which necessitate regulatory reforms [3][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework and Measures - The new measures clarify the functional positioning of local AMCs, emphasizing their role in preventing and resolving regional financial risks rather than merely pursuing scale and profit [6][7]. - A quantitative requirement mandates that at least 30% of new investments must be in the acquisition of financial non-performing assets, ensuring a focus on core business [7]. - The measures establish a risk management framework addressing concentration, liquidity, and related party transaction risks, including limits on financing balances to mitigate systemic risks [8][9][10]. Group 3: Supervision and Coordination - The regulatory framework introduces a collaborative supervision model, with provincial financial management institutions responsible for daily oversight and the National Financial Supervision Administration providing support and coordination [10][11]. - This structure aims to enhance regulatory efficiency and prevent regulatory arbitrage, ensuring a unified standard across different regions [11]. - The implementation of these measures marks a new phase of standardized and professional development for local AMCs, aligning with ongoing economic and financial reforms [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses OKX's transition from facing a $505 million fine to pursuing an IPO on the NYSE, highlighting a shift in Wall Street's attitude towards the crypto industry, suggesting that compliance can enhance valuation [1][2][33] - OKX's IPO is seen as a regulatory arbitrage, where the company leverages its fine as a means to gain entry into the U.S. market, with a projected valuation between $70 billion and $90 billion [1][2][8] - The article identifies three main reasons for the timing of the IPO: the success of Circle's IPO, the rising stock prices of Coinbase, and a shift in U.S. regulatory attitudes under the Trump administration [1][2][4] Group 2 - A comparison between OKX and Coinbase reveals that OKX has a higher monthly trading volume and a larger user base, but has faced regulatory challenges, while Coinbase has a stronger compliance framework [4][5][11] - OKX's strategy involves rapid global expansion and a focus on derivatives trading, which has led to a significant market share, but it also faces risks from regulatory scrutiny and historical penalties [5][10][12] - The article suggests that for OKX to replicate Circle's success, it must enhance its compliance image, optimize its business structure, and leverage favorable regulations in regions like Hong Kong and Singapore [9][10] Group 3 - The article outlines the potential motivations behind Wall Street's interest in OKX's IPO, including the desire to create a compliant and powerful centralized exchange (CEX) that can operate within U.S. regulations [28][30] - OKX's IPO is positioned as a strategic move to attract capital and establish a foothold in the U.S. market, with major financial institutions showing interest in supporting the IPO [25][27][28] - The success of OKX's IPO could signify a broader acceptance of crypto within traditional finance, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for crypto compliance and integration into the financial system [32][35]

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in the scale of standard trust products is driven by both the accelerated transformation of the trust industry and the flexibility advantages of standard trust products, alongside favorable conditions in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Scale Growth Driven by "Borrowing Path" - The growth in scale has lost its momentum due to regulatory measures aimed at eliminating institutional arbitrage and ensuring fair competition among financial sub-industries [2][3]. - The lack of specific regulatory guidelines for standard trust products allows for greater operational flexibility compared to public funds and bank wealth management products, attracting significant capital inflow, particularly from low-risk preference bank wealth management funds [2][3]. - The collaboration between trust companies and wealth management firms has led to a reliance on smoothing mechanisms to adjust product yields, which may pose risks to investors and the overall market [3][4]. Group 2: Risks and Regulatory Attention - Regulatory bodies have issued notifications to strengthen compliance management regarding the cooperation between trust companies and wealth management firms, focusing on issues such as improper use of smoothing mechanisms and risk asset transactions [3][4]. - Investors may face mismatched risk exposure and potential losses due to the improper adjustment of yields between different wealth management products [4][5]. - The regulatory focus aims to prevent liquidity risks and ensure that the actual risks of products are accurately reflected, protecting investors from misleading risk perceptions [6][10]. Group 3: Performance-Driven Scale Increase - The increase in the scale of standard trust products is also attributed to the accelerated transformation of trust companies towards standard trust products and the strong performance of the bond market in 2024 [13][14]. - Trust companies are leveraging their experience in the municipal investment sector to enhance their bond investment strategies, leading to higher-than-average returns in their standard trust products [14][15]. - The current low-risk yield environment and the preference for low-volatility bonds have further driven capital into standard trust products, contributing to record-high industry scales [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ability to sustain growth in scale driven by performance may become challenging as the bond market experiences lower absolute yields and reduced credit spreads [15]. - Trust companies may need to diversify their asset allocation strategies to seek stable long-term returns, which poses a challenge for their management capabilities [15][16]. - The ongoing regulatory efforts to eliminate arbitrage opportunities and ensure fair competition will likely shape the future landscape of the asset management industry [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The deepening connections between U.S. banks and private credit institutions, led by firms like Blackstone, Apollo, and Ares, may pose systemic risks to the financial system during economic downturns [1][2]. Group 1: Growth of Private Credit Market - The U.S. private credit market has experienced explosive growth, expanding from $46 billion in 2000 to approximately $1 trillion in 2023, particularly accelerating after 2019 [1]. - As of March 2023, bank loans to non-bank financial institutions, including private equity firms and private credit funds, surged to about $1.2 trillion, marking a 20% increase year-over-year [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Arbitrage - The phenomenon of banks providing funding to private credit funds is a result of regulatory arbitrage following the 2008 financial crisis, where banks were restricted from directly offering high-leverage loans [2][3]. - This shift has allowed banks to indirectly participate in high-risk lending through private credit funds, creating a regulatory arbitrage situation despite numerous financial reforms post-2008 [3]. Group 3: Systemic Risks from Credit Lines - One of the main risks identified is the reliance of private credit funds on revolving credit lines from banks, which could lead to systemic liquidity risks if multiple lenders withdraw funds simultaneously during adverse macroeconomic conditions [4]. - The financing provided by banks to private credit funds is considered safer than pre-2008 leveraged buyout loans, as it is supported by numerous smaller loans, minimizing risk exposure to any single business [4]. Group 4: Challenges in Private Equity - The head of the Kuwait Investment Authority warned that the private equity industry is facing significant challenges, particularly in returning funds to investors amid a persistent valuation gap between buyers and sellers [6]. - As of the end of 2024, private equity firms hold approximately $3.6 trillion in unrealized value across 29,000 unsold portfolio companies, with the ratio of funds allocated to net asset value dropping to a record low of 11% [6].