美国财政部长斯科特.贝森特(Scott Bessent)发出了美国政府迄今为止最明确的降息呼吁，要求美联储立 即启动新一轮降息周期，并表示美联储基准利率应当比当前的高利率水平至少低1.5个百分点，并且他 预计9月将开启的今年首个降息时间点有可能降息50个基点，这一呼吁高于美联储官员们近期25个基点 的降息呼声。高盛、花旗等华尔街大行们近期都表示今年美联储降息路径可能与去年一模一样——即9 月降息50个基点开启降息周期，之后11月和12月分别降息25个基点。 "我认为我们可能会进入一系列降息空间，并且很可能从美联储9月降息50个基点开始，"贝森特周三在 媒体电视节目《Bloomberg Surveillance》的采访中表示。"如果你看任何经济模型，它们都在表明我们 可能应该降低150，甚至175个基点。" 在上一次美联储FOMC货币政策会议上，美联储政策制定者们将其基准利率维持在4.25%至4.5%的这一 高利率目标区间。贝森特重申，如果美联储货币政策官员们在那次会议两天后公布的劳动力市场大幅修 订数据提前知情，他们可能已经开启新一轮降息。他强调，6月美联储FOMC货币政策会议也可能是如 此逻辑——即如果当时 ...

智通财经APP获悉，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什、现任美联储理事 克里斯托弗·沃勒以及现任财政部长斯科特·贝森特均被华尔街分析师们提出作为领导美联储的候选人， 但随着特朗普表示贝森特希望专注于财长一职，市场的焦点集中在两个"凯文"(Kevin)——即凯文·哈塞 特与凯文·沃什。据了解，在接受 CNBC 《Squawk Box》节目的广泛采访中，特朗普高度评价了凯文·哈 塞特与凯文·沃什。 哈塞特和沃什都主张降低利率。现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，他因维持高利率而 屡遭特朗普批评。 美联储理事阿德里亚娜·库格勒上周五宣布本周生效的辞职决定，特朗普称此举"是个惊喜"。此举为特 朗普安排人选进入美联储理事提供重大机会，而获美联储理事任命者在鲍威尔任期结束时极有可能晋升 为美联储主席。 在 Kalshi上，特朗普首个总统任期的前经济顾问朱迪·谢尔顿被赋予6%的概率成为鲍威尔的接班人。曾 于2019至2023年担任世界银行行长的前政府官员戴维·马尔帕斯目前在该预测市场上的概率为4%。 甚至特朗普本人在 Kalshi 上也获得了1%的"票数"来领导美联储。 在接受CNBC ...

智通财经APP获悉，下任美联储主席的热门人选凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)再度发表重磅言论，他在最新采 访中表示央行的独立性"至关重要"，不过，他补充表示这种独立性的范围非常有限，并强调在现任美联 储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的领导下，美联储已涉足其并无职权的政策领域。沃什还表示坚持 独立性和立马降息并不冲突，美联储不应过度担忧关税导致通胀持续上升。 沃什曾在2006至2011年担任美联储理事，其间一直奉行以遏制通胀风险为目标的鹰派利率政策。然而在 今年，他转而主张大幅降息，与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的立场完全保持一致。特朗普则正在考虑在鲍 威尔任期明年5月届满后提名谁来接任美联储主席。 沃什重申了他对鲍威尔领导下美联储的批评，指责其过于担忧特朗普关税可能推高通胀，并强调关税带 来的通胀冲击是一次性而非持续性。 "如果他们是一家非常有公信力的央行，就可以说：'我们忽略这一次性的价格变动。'然而他们迟迟不 肯降息，我认为正是他们的污点。" 沃什还表示，特朗普公开施压美联储货币政策是正确的，并表示现在的美联储政策制定者们对降息犹豫 不决使得美联储信誉逐渐丧失。 贝森特在当时主张提前很长时 ...

"影子联储主席"沃什：贝森特的工作做得很好。 如果美联储和财政部由一人领导，协议将更容易些。 但美联储和财政部由同一个人领导将损害信誉。 美联储必须停止为错误辩护。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is considering breaking tradition by announcing his nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair nearly a year in advance due to dissatisfaction with the current interest rate policy [1] Candidate Summaries - **Kevin Warsh**: Former Federal Reserve Governor known for his hawkish stance on monetary policy, advocating for cautious measures to prevent inflation. He has experience as an investment banker at Morgan Stanley and served as an economic advisor under President George W. Bush [2] - **Kevin Hassett**: Director of the National Economic Council, focused on economic growth and tax reform. He has a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University and has authored several books on tax policy [3] - **Scott Bessent**: Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair. He has significant Wall Street experience and was the Chief Investment Officer at Soros Capital Management. Bessent advocates for an early appointment to influence monetary policy during Powell's remaining term [4] - **David Malpass**: Former President of the World Bank and a key figure in the Trump administration, known for promoting global economic growth. He has faced criticism for his economic understanding, particularly regarding interest rate policies during the 2008 financial crisis [5] - **Christopher Waller**: Current Federal Reserve Governor with a background in economic research. He has proposed frameworks for maintaining low unemployment while controlling inflation, gaining influence within the Fed [6] Implications of Early Nomination - If Trump announces his nominee in the summer or fall, it would significantly shorten the traditional transition period of 3 to 4 months, indicating a proactive political strategy. This move reflects dissatisfaction with current monetary policy and aims to signal future policy directions to the market [7] - The President's ability to nominate the Fed Chair requires Senate confirmation, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and increasing uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [7]

Group 1 - Trump is considering announcing the next Federal Reserve Chair earlier than the traditional transition period to pressure current Chair Powell to accelerate interest rate cuts [1][2] - Potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair include former Fed Governor Warsh, NEC Director Hassett, current Fed Governor Waller, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [2][4] - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve during a Senate hearing, stating that while rate cuts are possible, a cautious approach will be taken [2] Group 2 - Waller, a Fed Governor nominated by Trump, indicated support for a potential rate cut next month due to concerns over a weakening labor market [4] - Warsh has publicly criticized the Fed's handling of political pressures, urging the institution to maintain maturity and resilience [4]

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" for the Federal Reserve by President Trump has sparked market interest, with a narrowed list of candidates including Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, and Scott Bessent, each with distinct policy inclinations [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Candidates - The candidates for the next Federal Reserve chairman include Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, and Scott Bessent, each bringing unique perspectives and policy preferences [1]. - Kevin Warsh is noted for his hawkish stance and criticism of the Fed's quantitative easing policies, while Christopher Waller has shown a more dovish approach, suggesting that tariffs' impact on inflation is temporary [5][6]. - Kevin Hassett's chances are considered low due to limited monetary policy experience and perceptions of being too close to the government [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market currently anticipates that there is little chance of a rate cut in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with expectations for any potential cuts being pushed to September [3]. - Recent inflation data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in May's CPI, with core CPI rising 2.8%, both figures below expectations, leading to a cautious stance from Fed officials regarding immediate rate cuts [2]. Group 3: Impact of a "Shadow Chairman" - The concept of a "shadow chairman" could undermine the current chairman Jerome Powell's authority and complicate the communication of the Fed's interest rate strategy [7]. - The influence of a "shadow chairman" may be limited, as significant policy changes require a majority vote from the FOMC, which currently lacks support for aggressive rate cuts [7].

Core Viewpoint - Scott Basset, the current U.S. Treasury Secretary, is gaining attention as a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, supported by prominent advisors in the financial sector [1][3] Group 1: Candidates and Their Roles - Scott Basset is viewed as a strong candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, with his role as Treasury Secretary being crucial in the selection process [2] - Kevin Walsh, a former Federal Reserve official, is also considered a viable candidate, receiving high praise from President Trump [2][5] - Other potential candidates mentioned include Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and David Malpass [6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Basset's concept of a "shadow Fed Chair" aims to influence monetary policy discussions and reduce the current Chair Powell's impact, which aligns with Trump's economic agenda [1][7] - The financial community expresses trust in both Basset and Walsh to maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve, despite concerns about political interference [4][5] - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell's interest rate policies has led to speculation about how the next Chair will navigate these pressures [3][4]

屡屡催促美联储降息却一再"无功而返"后，美国总统特朗普可能又开始考虑换掉美联储主席鲍威尔，或 者是设立一位"影子联储主席"，架空鲍威尔。 美东时间时间6月6日周五，特朗普表示，正在考虑下一任美联储主席的人选，"很快就会发布"。特朗普 并未透露大概的人选范围，只是说，他已经差不多想好要选谁，这个人广受尊重，他还说，一位优秀的 美联储主席会降息。他重申，鲍威尔应降低利率。 被问到外界视为可能接替鲍威尔的前美联储理事沃什时，特朗普回答："他是被高度重视的。" 不过，去年就有分析称，特朗普通过设立"影子主席"来影响美联储决策的想法可能行不通，即使能够影 响货币政策，特朗普也无法通过刺激政策摆脱随之而来的通胀飙升问题。 特朗普一再"攻击" 削弱市场对鲍威尔接班人信心 由于特朗普政府4月2日公布的所谓对等关税水平远超联储预期，且此后关税政策摇摆不定、不确定性 高，联储决策者越发担心高关税会持续推升通胀，届时陷入滞胀的困境，鲍威尔今年多次表态称不急于 降息。直到本周二，还有多位美联储官员罕见表达对通胀压力持久的强烈担忧。 就在对等关税公布的4月，特朗普开始密集"炮轰"鲍威尔，让外界猜测他会不会寻求罢免鲍威尔。白宫还 传出美 ...