机构：中金公司 研究员：王翼羽/李佳璠/孙元祺 盈利预测与估值 维持盈利预测不变。维持跑赢行业评级与目标价9.46 港元/股，对应15 倍2025 年核心P/E、5.5%股息收 益率和7%上行空间。 公司交易于14.5 倍2025 年核心P/E和5.8%股息收益率。 公司动态 风险 公司近况 恒隆地产12 月9 日公告，其与无锡市梁溪城市发展公司合作，以长期租约获取毗邻无锡恒隆广场的地标 性商业项目经营权。 评论 无锡项目外拓为"恒隆V.3"战略下的又一重要进展。恒隆于今年9 月正式发布"恒隆V.3"战略，核心在于 聚焦当下已布局的核心城市，以高资本效益为原则、精选现有项目再投资，并积极通过合作等方式扩大 项目版图。我们认为在核心城市商业竞争格局相对清晰的背景下，以较轻的投入巩固自身市场地位为较 优战略选择。截至目前公司公告昆明、上海、杭州及无锡四个项目的轻资产外拓或扩建，我们认为在拓 展零售面积的基础上，其有望带来街区+盒子的多元空间体验、增加临街展示面及入场动线等多重利 好；我们建议关注拓展项目逐步开出后对公司租金利润增长的额外贡献，但亦提示从签约到交付运营存 一定时滞。 无锡恒隆广场经营向好，竞争优势有 ...

中金指，虽然第四季按年基数有所上升，仍预计10-11月公司内地商场零售额表现延续第三季势头，预 计第三季零售额按年增长10%；近期重点项目上海恒隆广场亮点频出，包括Home-to-Luxury店庆活动成 功举办、Chanel正式门店于1层重新开出等。该行对其盈利预测与估值维持盈利预测不变，维持"跑赢行 业"评级与目标价9.46港元。 格隆汇12月11日｜中金发表报告指，恒隆地产12月9日公告与无锡市梁溪城市发展公司合作，以长期租 约获取毗邻无锡恒隆广场的地标性商业项目经营权。报告指，无锡项目外拓为恒隆V.3战略下的又一重 要进展。恒隆于今年9月正式发布恒隆V.3战略，核心在于聚焦当下已布局的核心城市，以高资本效益为 原则、精选现有项目再投资，并积极通过合作等方式扩大项目版图。该行认为在核心城市商业竞争格局 相对清晰的背景下，以较轻的投入巩固自身市场地位为较优战略选择。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating and profit forecast for Hang Lung Properties (00101), with a target price of HKD 9.46 per share, corresponding to a 15x core P/E for 2025, a 5.5% dividend yield, and a 5% upside potential [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The retail performance of mainland shopping malls is expected to improve, with a projected 10% year-on-year increase in retail sales for Q3 2025, following a trend of quarterly improvement throughout the year [2] - Contributing factors include a low base from the previous year (Q3 2024 retail sales down 18%), effective marketing strategies, and an expected 9% increase in foot traffic during July-August [2] - During the National Day holiday, retail sales increased by 15% year-on-year, with notable growth in Wuhan and Shanghai [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched the "Hang Lung V.3" strategy, focusing on reinvestment in existing projects and exploring potential opportunities in surrounding areas [3] - Specific initiatives include the expansion of Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza, which is expected to increase rental space by 30%, and the transformation of Shanghai Port Exchange into a five-star hotel [3] Group 3: Performance of Key Malls - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza is expected to maintain its leading position in the luxury market, with new openings of high-end brands anticipated to further boost retail sales [4] - Shanghai Port Exchange is focusing on luxury brand expansion and optimizing its mix of sports, outdoor, and dining brands, with a projected 31% year-on-year increase in retail sales for Q3 2025 [4] - Wuxi Hang Lung Plaza has shown continuous growth since introducing luxury brands, with over 180 new brands expected to be signed in 2024-2025, including more than 70 first stores in Jiangsu or Wuxi [4]

Company Overview - Recent management roadshow and site visits conducted by the company revealed a strengthening trend in retail performance for its mainland shopping malls, with a projected 10% year-on-year increase in retail sales for Q3 2025, following a gradual improvement throughout the year [1] - The company attributes this improvement to a low base from the previous year, effective marketing strategies, and an increase in foot traffic, which is expected to rise by 9% in July and August [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched the "Henglong V.3" strategy to reinforce its market position in core cities, focusing on reinvestment in existing projects and exploring potential opportunities in surrounding areas [2] - Specific initiatives under this strategy include a 30% increase in leasable area at Shanghai Henglong Plaza, the transformation of Shanghai Port Exchange Henglong into a five-star hotel, and a 40% increase in retail space through long-term leasing cooperation in Hangzhou [2] Performance Insights - Key shopping malls in East China are performing well, with Shanghai Henglong Plaza expected to maintain its leading position in the luxury market, bolstered by the opening of high-end brands [2] - Shanghai Port Exchange Henglong is optimizing its brand mix, with a projected 31% year-on-year increase in retail sales for Q3 2025 [2] - Wuxi Henglong Plaza has seen continuous growth since introducing luxury brands in 2019, with over 180 new brand signings expected between 2024 and 2025, including more than 70 first stores in Jiangsu or Wuxi [2] Financial Projections - The company maintains an outperform rating and unchanged profit forecasts, with a target price of HKD 9.46 per share, reflecting a 15x core P/E for 2025 and a 5.5% dividend yield [2] - Current trading is at 14.6x core P/E for 2025, with a 5.8% dividend yield, suggesting continued attention to year-on-year retail performance and the progress of new openings [3]