随着香港住宅市场回暖支持今年发展物业销售，该行认为恒隆有机会于2026年上半年取消"以股代息"计 划，虽然管理层未承诺具体时间表。恒隆目前交易对应的股息率为5.5%，较资产净值折让约60%，该行 认为估值吸引。基于写字楼租金下调，将2026至2027财年每股盈利预测轻微下调1%。 美银证券发布研报称，重申对恒隆地产(00101)"买入"评级，目标价10.4港元。该行预期，2026财年核心 利润将轻微下跌1%，主要由于内地零售租金增长及发展物业利润改善(2025财年录亏损)，被写字楼收入 下降及资本化利息显著减少所抵销。 管理层指出，尽管2026年与2025年农历新年时间不同致对比不利，但1月份中国内地租户销售额大致持 平。预计奢侈品零售将从2025财年估计下跌1%，恢复至2026财年的低至中单位数增长;而非奢侈品类表 现将更优。预测更依赖基本租金的上海港汇恒隆广场(GG66)将实现稳定的3%租金增长，而上海恒隆广 场(Plaza66)零售增长将从2025年下半年的同比1%，改善至2026财年的同比增长4%。营运成本率维持在 合理范围，介乎约十几个百分点。管理层强调加强武汉非奢侈品租户表现的新举措，以及在沈阳引 ...

随着香港住宅市场回暖支持今年发展物业销售，该行认为恒隆有机会于2026年上半年取消"以股代息"计 划，虽然管理层未承诺具体时间表。恒隆目前交易对应的股息率为5.5%，较资产净值折让约60%，该行 认为估值吸引。基于写字楼租金下调，将2026至2027财年每股盈利预测轻微下调1%。 管理层指出，尽管2026年与2025年农历新年时间不同致对比不利，但1月份中国内地租户销售额大致持 平。预计奢侈品零售将从2025财年估计下跌1%，恢复至2026财年的低至中单位数增长; 而非奢侈品类表 现将更优。预测更依赖基本租金的上海港汇恒隆广场(GG66)将实现稳定的3%租金增长，而上海恒隆广 场(Plaza 66)零售增长将从2025年下半年的同比1%，改善至2026财年的同比增长4%。营运成本率维持在 合理范围，介乎约十几个百分点。管理层强调加强武汉非奢侈品租户表现的新举措，以及在沈阳引入新 的运动休闲设施以提升客流量。杭州恒隆广场(Westlake 66)的预租率达到令人鼓舞的91%，预计于2026 年第二季及第三季的开业率分别为80%及90%。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，重申对恒隆地产(00101)"买入 ...

Core Insights - In 2026, Zhejiang's commercial market is set to experience a new wave of supply with 42 planned commercial projects totaling approximately 3 million square meters, a 6% decrease compared to 2025 [1] - Major operators such as Hang Lung, Kerry, Hongkong Land, and Longfor are competing fiercely, pushing Zhejiang into a new phase of "quality improvement" and "structural optimization" [1] Project Overview - The 42 commercial projects are distributed across cities including Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Ningbo, Jinhua, Huzhou, Taizhou, and Jiaxing, with Hangzhou contributing nearly half of the projects at 45.2% [4] - Notable projects in Hangzhou include: - Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza (100,000 sqm) opening in April 2026 [16] - Hangzhou Aura HZ (26,000 sqm) opening in May 2026 [29] - Hangzhou Kerry City (254,000 sqm) focusing on a mixed-use urban complex [13] - Hangzhou Guanghuan Dream Center (172,000 sqm) emphasizing a nature-themed shopping experience [9] Market Dynamics - 27 of the projects are shopping centers and malls, accounting for 64% of the market, indicating a trend towards specialized commercial developments [5] - The introduction of new players such as Alibaba's "Qing Cheng 556" and ByteDance's "Cangnan Li MEET636" reflects a diversification in the commercial landscape [5] Size and Scale - Projects larger than 50,000 sqm dominate the market, with 27 such projects making up 64.2% of the total [6] - The largest project, the Su Ning Plaza in Shaoxing, will cover 260,000 sqm, setting a record for the region [38] Competitive Landscape - The competition is characterized by a "pyramid" structure, with numerous leading projects at the top and fewer smaller non-standard commercial offerings [6] - The focus on asset operation and content creation in smaller projects highlights a long-term competitive strategy [6] Notable Projects - Wenzhou GT Plaza (100,000 sqm) aims to create a park-style social commercial complex [32] - Taizhou Bay Wuyue Plaza (70,000 sqm) is designed as a central leisure living area [35] - Ningbo's Haiquan Bay PLUS and Xiushui Street historical cultural district are set to enhance the city's cultural tourism [4]

Group 1 - The core announcement is that Weber Lu, the CEO of Hang Lung Group, will retire by August 31, 2026, and the board is currently conducting a search for his successor [1][6] - Lu has been with Hang Lung since May 2018 and previously held significant positions at Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, and Citigroup, where he served for 18 years [3] - Lu currently holds 1,128,542 shares of Hang Lung Properties, representing 0.02% of the total issued shares, and 460,000 shares of Hang Lung Group, representing 0.03% of the total issued shares [5] Group 2 - Under the leadership of Chen Wenbo, who took over as chairman in April 2024, the company is transitioning from "heavy asset expansion" to "stock optimization" as part of the "Hang Lung V.3" strategy [6] - Lu expressed gratitude for the support from the board and highlighted the achievements during his tenure, including strengthening the brand and launching significant strategies [6] - The company has faced challenges due to the adjustment in the Chinese real estate market and a decline in luxury consumption, with rental income from mainland properties dropping by 2% to HKD 3.199 billion in the first half of 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of CEO Lu Weibao's retirement by Hang Lung Group and Hang Lung Properties marks a significant transition to a new management era led by Chen Wenbo, amidst challenges in the real estate market and a strategic transformation towards optimizing existing assets [1][2][4]. Management Transition - Lu Weibao will retire by August 31, 2026, and will continue to provide advisory support to the group [1][4]. - This change follows the recent transition to a third-generation management team under Chen Wenbo, who took over from the long-serving chairman Chen Qizong in April 2024 [3][4]. - The management change is seen as a natural progression in the company's strategic shift from heavy asset expansion to optimizing existing assets [4][5]. Financial Performance and Market Challenges - Hang Lung's stock price has significantly declined from over HKD 18 per share in 2019 to around HKD 8, reflecting the pressures from structural adjustments in the industry and the company's strategic transformation [2][4]. - For the first half of 2025, rental income from mainland properties fell by 2% to HKD 3.199 billion, with operating profit also declining by 2% [4][14]. - The flagship Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza's occupancy rate dropped from a long-term 100% to 98%, with sales down by 8% [4][14]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has initiated a strategic response to market pressures, including a shift away from distinguishing between "high-end" and "sub-high-end" shopping categories, indicating a more flexible approach to customer adaptation [5][14]. - Recent operational data showed a 15% year-on-year increase in total tenant sales during the National Day holiday period, with some properties like Shanghai Port International achieving a 50% sales increase [5][15]. - The V.3 strategy, led by Chen Wenbo, aims to expand core business areas through a light-asset model, with significant projects underway in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Wuxi [5][15]. Future Outlook and Challenges - The new management team faces challenges, including uncertain retail consumption growth and a competitive office market, with a 5% decline in office income reported for the first half of the year [6][14]. - The transition to a light-asset model involves substantial investment in property renovations, raising concerns about cost overruns and maintaining the high-end brand image while attracting new customer segments [6][16]. - The upcoming selection of Lu Weibao's successor will be critical for maintaining strategic continuity and addressing the multifaceted challenges facing the company [6][18].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of CEO Lu Weibao's retirement by Hang Lung Group and Hang Lung Properties marks a significant transition as the company enters a new era under the leadership of Chen Wenbo, the third-generation successor, amidst ongoing challenges in the real estate market and a strategic transformation towards optimizing existing assets [5][7][14]. Group 1: Management Transition - Lu Weibao will retire by August 31, 2026, and will continue to provide advisory support to the group [5][14]. - This change follows the retirement of former chairman Chen Qizong in 2024, indicating a shift to a management team led by Chen Wenbo [5][7]. - The transition is seen as a natural progression in the company's strategic transformation, with Lu having laid the groundwork for the "V.3" strategy [7][14]. Group 2: Strategic Transformation - The "V.3" strategy aims to shift from heavy asset expansion to optimizing existing assets, responding to the challenges posed by the real estate market and luxury consumption decline [7][10]. - The company has begun to adapt its operational logic by no longer distinguishing between "high-end" and "mid-range" shopping centers, indicating a more flexible approach to market demands [8][10]. - Recent operational data shows a 15% increase in total tenant sales for mainland properties during the National Day holiday, with significant sales growth in key locations [8][9]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Hang Lung's rental income from mainland properties fell by 2% to HKD 31.99 billion in the first half of 2025, with flagship projects experiencing a decline in occupancy rates [8][9]. - The office market remains under pressure, with a 5% drop in income from mainland office buildings in the first half of the year [10]. - The company faces challenges in balancing the introduction of new retail concepts while maintaining its high-end positioning to avoid losing its existing customer base [10][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The selection of Lu Weibao's successor will be closely watched, as the new CEO's ability to uphold strategic consensus and navigate multiple challenges will be crucial for the company's transformation [14]. - The core value of prime commercial locations remains a significant asset, supported by favorable policies and consumer potential in new first-tier cities [13][14]. - The successful execution of the "V.3" strategy and the management transition will be pivotal for restoring investor confidence and achieving sustainable growth [13][14].

Group 1 - The CEO and Executive Director of Hang Lung Group, Weber Lo, will retire by August 31, 2026, and the board is currently conducting a comprehensive selection process for his successor [2] - Chairman Chen Wenbo expressed gratitude for Weber's visionary leadership and contributions, highlighting the successful implementation of the V.3 strategy, which is expected to drive growth for decades [2] - Weber Lo stated that his retirement is part of a personal plan to explore new chapters in life, reflecting on his eight years at Hang Lung as a golden period marked by significant strategic initiatives and brand strengthening [2] Group 2 - The company has enhanced its brand '66' and launched major strategies, including expanding collaborations with luxury brands across multiple cities [2] - A comprehensive customer relationship management program has been implemented to improve customer service, and a strong team aligned with the company's vision and values has been established [2] - The opening of Hang Lung Plaza in Hangzhou is anticipated in April 2026, coinciding with the 66th anniversary of Hang Lung, indicating the company's readiness for its next development chapter [2]

Core Insights - The commercial real estate sector is undergoing a structural change rather than a cyclical one, with a shift from a "buy-buy-buy" mentality to addressing unmet spiritual and social needs [1] - The upcoming peak in shopping center openings is expected around the National Day holiday in 2025, with over 60 projects set to launch nationwide [1] Industry Trends - The golden era of commercial real estate appears to be fading, with increasing homogenization and significant pressure on the sector due to slow recovery in employment and income expectations [2] - Developers are adapting to the new market dynamics by focusing on strategic adjustments while maintaining a stable operational approach [2] Developer Strategies - Developers are shifting from traditional land acquisition and rapid construction to urban renewal projects due to high land costs and intense competition [4][6] - Companies like 恒隆集团 (Hang Lung Group) are focusing on deep participation in urban renewal to maximize asset value rather than merely engaging in light asset output [4][6] Market Opportunities - Despite challenges, there are still significant opportunities in the commercial real estate sector, particularly in second-tier cities where consumer demand is expected to grow [8][10] - The focus on community development and strategic partnerships is seen as a way to enhance business resilience and expand market presence [7][10] Financial Considerations - The recovery of the real estate market is anticipated to be gradual, influenced by global interest rates and local economic conditions [13][14] - Companies are prioritizing debt reduction and maintaining liquidity to navigate the current market uncertainties [15]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities initiates coverage on Hang Lung Properties (00101) with a "Buy" rating, anticipating stable rental income growth as the Hang Lung Plaza in Hangzhou opens in phases, alongside a decline in capital expenditure and net debt ratio starting in 2026, with dividends expected to remain stable and return to pure cash dividends [1] Group 1: High-End Shopping Malls - The company focuses on high-end shopping malls, occupying core business districts, with 10 high-end malls in 9 major cities in mainland China as of H1 2025, establishing itself as a benchmark mall through years of operation and updates, particularly the Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza, which has become a leading luxury mall in Shanghai after over 20 years of operation [1] Group 2: Rental Income Recovery - The core projects, Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza and Shanghai Port International Hang Lung, contribute over 50% of the rental income from retail properties in mainland China, with rental income growth turning positive year-on-year in H1 2025; the overall rental income decline is expected to narrow in 2025 due to stable performance and the opening of the Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza office space in the second half of 2025 [2] Group 3: Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza Contribution - The Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza, a key development project, is set to open part of its office space in the second half of 2025, with a pre-leasing rate of 22% as of H1 2025; the shopping center portion is expected to open in the first half of 2026, with a pre-leasing rate of 77%, which will enhance the company's recurring income and support stable dividend capabilities [3] Group 4: Dividend Stability - From 2013 to 2022, the company maintained a steady increase in cash dividends per share; however, in 2023, it introduced a scrip dividend for the first time, leading to a 33% decline in the dividend per share to HKD 0.52 in 2024; the company is expected to maintain dividend stability and potentially return to pure cash dividends after the retail portion of the Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza opens [4] Group 5: Net Debt Ratio Outlook - As of H1 2025, the company's net debt ratio stands at 33.5%, stable compared to the end of 2024; it is anticipated that the net debt ratio will decline by the end of 2026 following the opening of the retail portion of the Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza in the first half of 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities initiates coverage on Hang Lung Properties (00101) with a "Buy" rating, anticipating stable rental income growth as the Hang Lung Plaza in Hangzhou opens in phases, with capital expenditure and net debt ratio expected to decline from 2026, and dividends likely to remain stable and return to pure cash dividends [1] Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - The company focuses on high-end shopping malls, occupying core business districts, with 10 high-end malls in 9 major cities in mainland China as of H1 2025, establishing itself as a benchmark mall through years of operation and updates, particularly the Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza, which has become a leading luxury mall in Shanghai after over 20 years of operation [1] Group 2: Rental Income Performance - The core projects, Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza and Shanghai Port International Plaza, contribute over 50% of the rental income from retail properties in mainland China, with rental income growth turning positive in H1 2025, indicating stabilization in core project performance and potential narrowing of overall rental income decline in 2025 due to the opening of Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza's office space in the second half of 2025 [2] Group 3: Future Growth from Hangzhou Project - The Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza, set to open part of its office space in the second half of 2025, has a pre-leasing rate of 22% as of H1 2025, while the shopping center portion has a pre-leasing rate of 77%, which is expected to enhance the company's recurring income and support stable dividend capabilities [3] Group 4: Dividend Stability - From 2013 to 2022, the company maintained a steady increase in cash dividends per share, but proposed a scrip dividend for the first time at the end of 2023, resulting in a 33% decline in the first dividend per share to HKD 0.52 in 2024; however, with expected narrowing of rental income decline and significant reduction in capital expenditure post-completion of Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza, the company is believed to have the capacity to maintain stable dividends and potentially restore pure cash dividends after the retail portion opens [4] Group 5: Debt Management - As of H1 2025, the company's net debt ratio stands at 33.5%, stable compared to the end of 2024; it is anticipated that the net debt ratio will decline by the end of 2026 following the opening of the retail portion of Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza in the first half of 2026 [5]