观点指数在12月23日观点指数研究院发布的《存量盘活 | 2025年12月商业地产零售业态发展报告》中，观点指数发现，样 本企业方面，恒隆签约无锡、上海两大项目，通过连片运营提升核心商圈竞争力。项目运营上，购物中心打造美食类市集 等聚合型业态成为趋势，越秀、华润、领展等企业纷纷布局。 业绩表现上，期内领展房托公布2025/2026财年中期业绩。截至2025年9月30日的半年度，领展内地物业组合总收益及物业 收入净额分别按年下跌4.6%及4.9%，整体零售业务受宏观经济环境、消费者信心不足等市场不利因素的压力较大。 其中，内地零售物业续租租金调整率为-16.4%，主要是北京中关村领展广场及领展企业广场的零售部分表现不佳。若剔除 这两个项目，其余物业组合的续租租金调整率为正2.5%，反映出大部分内地优质资产仍具备稳定的租金收益能力。 尽管租金压力依然存在，但期内领展在深圳、广州及上海的项目表现较好。以天河领展广场为例，自2023年9月一期东翼亮 相至今年8月底，项目新开业品牌达184家，全场品牌焕新率超过80%，会员拉新超18万，2024年整体客流同比增长37%， 销售额同比增长达31%。 同时，内地零售物业组合 ...

12月12日，恒隆地产宣布以"营运租赁"模式获得原梅龙镇广场项目20年整体运营权。围绕这一项目的定位，也引发了巨大的关注和讨论。 目前披露的消息是，项目将被打造为集零售、酒店及办公于一体的综合商业地标，定位面向新一代消费群体。 在得到正式答案之前，我们或许可以通过上海恒隆广场内部，Chanel过渡期临时店的"再分配"，看见重奢商场们的新动向。 18个月，是Chanel上海恒隆广场精品店完成此轮升级的时间。这座纵贯四层的巨型门店在上月揭幕，成为全球首个涵盖时装、珠宝腕表、美妆、尊享沙龙 及尊享服务工坊的Chanel完整生态空间。 紧随新店启幕，四楼中庭两侧的原Chanel临时店铺位迅速竖起三处围挡——Dolce&Gabbana、Descente、EAU CAFÉ。 前者很少出现在如此高的楼层，后两者也通常不被认为属于上海恒隆广场的"标准答案"。 但如今，它们却变成了当下高端商业项目调改的最大公约数。 奢侈品牌抱团取暖， 类似的，自2021年从恒隆广场门神位撤出后就未在南京西路商圈落位的Prada也在今年以首层岛柜配合四楼沙龙精品店的形式回归。 标杆项目成为马太效应赢家 长期以来，恒隆广场受限于5万平米的商业面积 ...

申万宏源发布研报称，恒隆地产(00101)聚焦核心商圈打造高端商业标杆;商场积极调改、前端零售逐季 改善，核心商场租金同比转正;财务稳健，分红比例80%，未来有望恢复纯现金派息方式。预计公司25- 27年归母净利润25.225.5、26.4亿港元，同比分别为+17%、+1%、+4%，归母核心利润28.9、29.2、30.0 亿港元，同比分别为-7%、+1%、+3%;PE分别为18、18、17倍;目标价11.7港元，首次覆盖，并给予"买 入"评级。 (1)内地IP：积极调改零售逐季改善。截至24年末，公司内地8城有10个恒隆广场，总面积227万平，其 中零售、办公楼分别占比61%、33%。24年内地IP租金65亿港元，同比-5%，2011年以来CAGR增速 +7%;25H1内地IP租金同比-2%。公司积极谋变，调改引入新品牌;目前前端指标租户零售额自24Q3已逐 季度改善，有望推动租金企稳回升，其中内地10个商场25H1已有7个租金同比转正。未来杭州恒隆成为 主要增量，总面积39万平，预计25-26年落地。 (2)香港IP：市场景气度回升，营收降幅收窄。24年香港IP租金30.5亿港元同比-9%;25H1同比- ...

财务及分红：财务稳健，分红比例80% 申万宏源发布研报称，恒隆地产(00101)聚焦核心商圈打造高端商业标杆;商场积极调改、前端零售逐季 改善，核心商场租金同比转正;财务稳健，分红比例80%，未来有望恢复纯现金派息方式。预计公司25- 27年归母净利润25.225.5、26.4亿港元，同比分别为+17%、+1%、+4%，归母核心利润28.9、29.2、30.0 亿港元，同比分别为-7%、+1%、+3%;PE分别为18、18、17倍;目标价11.7港元，首次覆盖，并给予"买 入"评级。 截至25H1，公司有息负债548亿港元，同比+3%净负债率33.5%，后续随着杭州恒隆逐步开业，资本承 担将逐渐减少，净负债率有望边际回落;25H1融资成本3.9%，创近年新低。未来行业降息环境下公司持 有业务价值有望得到重估。分红方面，2012-23年年度股息保持在33-35亿港元，24年业绩下滑导致年度 股息下滑至25亿港元，但分红比例仍80%，未来分红方式也有望恢复至纯现金分红为主。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 恒隆地产：聚焦核心商圈，打造高端商业典范 (1)内地IP：积极调改零售逐季改善。截至24年末，公司内地8城有10个恒 ...

随着市场景气度回升，公司零售及住宅公寓租赁已持续转好。（3）酒店：规模较小，保持稳定经营。 公司在运营酒店有沈阳、昆明2 个酒店，25H1 营收1.29 亿港元，同比+84%。 此外，25Q3 开始以爱马仕、Prada、LVMH 为代表的重奢品牌营收强势向上修复，重奢消费复苏态势良 好，为公司高端商场后续运营改善奠定基础。 投资分析意见：目标价11.7 港元，首次覆盖、并给予 "买入"评级。公司聚焦核心商圈，打造高端商业 标杆；商场积极调改、前端零售逐季改善，核心商场租金同比转正；财务稳健，分红比例80%，未来有 望恢复纯现金派息方式。预计公司25-27 年归母净利润25.2、25.5、26.4 亿港元，同比分别为+17%、 +1%、+4%，归母核心利润28.9、29.2、30.0 亿港元，同比分别为-7%、+1%、+3%；PE 分别为18、 18、17 倍；目标价11.7 港元，首次覆盖、并给予"买入"评级。 风险提示：房地产调控超预期收紧，零售表现不及预期。 恒隆地产：聚焦核心商圈，打造高端商业典范。公司业务以投资物业租赁为主、物业销售及酒店为辅， 业务布局在中国大陆及香港。公司IP 聚焦在核心城市核心商 ...

公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 房地产 上 市 公 司 2025 年 12 月 12 日 恒隆地产 (00101) ——高端商业典范，主动调改、经营稳步改善 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 8.95 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8934.28 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 9.48/5.58 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 452.57 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 5,056.65 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9093 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -10% 90% HSCEI 恒隆地产 资料来源：Bloomberg 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 10,316 | 11,242 | 9,915 | 10,066 | 10,412 | | 同比增长率（%） | -0.3 | 9.0 | -1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape of Hong Kong commercial real estate, emphasizing that Hong Kong developers dominate the high-end market in mainland China, with significant advantages in sales per square meter compared to domestic developers [2][17]. - It notes that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies expected to support demand and mitigate risks, particularly in first-tier cities [3]. - The report suggests that the financial health of Hong Kong developers is generally robust, with a focus on high-end commercial properties, which positions them well to benefit from increased consumer spending in mainland China [6][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Hong Kong Commercial Real Estate Landscape - Hong Kong developers like Hang Lung, Swire, and Sun Hung Kai dominate the high-end commercial sector, capturing a significant market share in major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [2][17]. - The average sales per square meter for Hong Kong high-end projects (8.6 billion/10,000 sqm) significantly outperforms domestic counterparts (5.6 billion/10,000 sqm) [20]. 2. Market Performance - The report indicates that both A-shares and Hong Kong real estate stocks underperformed the broader market, with A-shares down 0.72% and Hong Kong real estate down 0.95% [3]. - The issuance of real estate credit bonds totaled 17.84 billion, with a net financing amount of 11.50 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [4]. 3. REITs Market - The REITs index showed a slight decline of 0.11%, with the property-type REITs index at 118.22 points and the franchise-type REITs index at 118.85 points [4]. - The report notes that REITs have outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past month by 2.92 percentage points [4]. 4. Housing Market Trends - New and second-hand housing transaction volumes have seen significant year-on-year declines, with new housing down 34.37% and second-hand housing down 19.46% [6]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the second-hand housing market, while new housing metrics are expected to stabilize [6]. 5. Land Market Dynamics - The report highlights a substantial increase in land supply and transaction volumes across major cities, with a 144.35% increase in supply and a 40.81% increase in transactions [5]. - The premium rate for land transactions has shown a slight increase, indicating a competitive bidding environment [5]. 6. Policy Outlook - The report outlines expectations for future policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market, including potential adjustments to purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and measures to alleviate inventory pressures [3].

这位说话的人是香港知名企业家、恒隆集团主席——陈启宗。他是一位备受争议的商界人物，不仅因其成功的商业成就而受到关注，也因某些捐赠行为而遭 受批评。陈启宗为何会说出如此激烈的话，并向美国捐赠巨款呢？ 2013年8月3日，北京举办了一场国际经济学术论坛，论坛吸引了商界、金融界的精英和众多经济学者。许多受邀嘉宾纷纷上台演讲，分享自己的经验，而台 下则常有人交头接耳，似乎根本不关心讲台上的发言。有一位中年人目睹这一情况后，眉头渐渐皱起。当轮到他上台发言时，他走到讲台前，清了清嗓子， 语气沉重地说出了震惊全场的一句话：我今天第一次以做中国人为耻辱。这句话迅速引发了广泛的争议。 陈启宗的故事要从他出生谈起。1949年12月11日，陈启宗在香港出生，是家中的长子。陈家祖籍广东顺德，早在陈启宗的祖父时代，陈家就已经是一个颇为 富有的家族，陈启宗的祖父曾在天津做生意，积累了相当的家产。陈启宗的父亲和叔叔，陈曾熙和陈曾焘，接受了良好的教育，二人赴日本学习土木工程， 后来转战东南亚，先后在印尼的加里曼丹岛和马来西亚等地经营建筑生意，最终来到了香港，迎接香港房地产的第一波红利。 1991年，陈曾焘宣布退出恒隆集团主席职务，陈启宗正式 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Hang Lung Properties (00101) from HKD 9 to HKD 10.5 due to improved fundamentals and a narrowing NAV discount from 60% to 50%, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The mainland retail business of the group has started to improve, with tenant sales in Shanghai's Grand Gateway 66 and Plaza 66 increasing by 31% and 8% year-on-year in Q3, compared to a 10% increase and an 8% decline in the first half of the year [1] - During the first four days of the National Day Golden Week, overall tenant sales in mainland malls increased by 15% year-on-year, with Wuhan's Heartland 66 and Shanghai's Grand Gateway 66 recording over 70% and 50% year-on-year increases, respectively [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The bank has lowered its earnings per share forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to HKD 0.62 and HKD 0.68, respectively, from previous estimates of HKD 0.65 and HKD 0.69, due to expectations of a slower recovery in EBIT margins from now until 2027 [1] Group 3: Catalysts for Growth - The luxury goods group LVMH has indicated improvements in its mainland business in Q3, and the upcoming opening of the Hang Lung Plaza in Hangzhou, which has already pre-leased 83% of its retail space and 27% of its office space, is expected to be a significant growth catalyst, contributing notably by 2027 [1]

Group 1: Office Market Performance - In Q3 2025, Shanghai's Grade A office net absorption reached 190,400 square meters, driven by cost-driven relocations and upgrades, with some industries showing expansion demand [1] - The overall vacancy rate for office buildings in Shanghai decreased by 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with the central business district (CBD) vacancy rate dropping by 0.6 percentage points and non-CBD areas by 0.5 percentage points [1][2] - The total net absorption for the first three quarters of 2025 surpassed the entire previous year's level, reaching 270,000 square meters [1] Group 2: Rental Trends and Demand - Rental rates for office buildings continued to decline in Q3 2025, maintaining a favorable environment for tenants, influenced by the ongoing influx of new projects [2] - The demand for retail properties remained active, with net absorption in the city reaching approximately 105,500 square meters despite no new supply in Q3 2025 [3][4] Group 3: Retail Market Insights - The core shopping districts in Shanghai saw a vacancy rate decrease of 0.8 percentage points in Q3 2025, driven by brands' demand for flagship and concept stores [4] - Retail leasing activity increased significantly in tourist-heavy areas like Nanjing East Road and Xintiandi, with notable improvements in net absorption [4] Group 4: Investment Market Dynamics - The investment market in Shanghai showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with office transactions regaining dominance and investor interest in stable cash flows driving transactions [6][7] - A significant transaction involving the Shanghai Bohua Plaza project was completed at a price of approximately 10.8 billion yuan, marking a record for single transactions in two years and boosting confidence in core city assets [7] - Investment demand accounted for 91% of the market, indicating a strong focus on capital allocation, with high-net-worth investors and various corporate buyers actively participating [7]