摩根士丹利发布研报称，将恒隆地产(00101)目标价由9港元上调至10.5港元，因基本面改善，NAV折让 收窄(由60%降至50%)，维持"增持"评级。报告指，集团的内地零售业务开始好转，上海的港汇恒隆广 场(Grand Gateway66)及恒隆广场(Plaza66)第三季租户销售额分别同比增长31%及8%，而上半年则为增长 10%及倒退8%。 国庆黄金周方面，首四日内地商场整体租户销售额同比增长15%，当中武汉恒隆广场(Heart land66)与上 海港汇恒隆广场(Grand Gateway66)分别录得超过70%及50%的同比升幅。因预期EBIT利润率由今起至 2027年回稳较慢，该行下调2026及27年每股盈利预测至0.62港元及0.68港元(之前0.65港元及0.69港元)。 该行提到，奢侈品集团LVMH反映内地业务于第三季有所改善，加上老铺黄金(06181)将落户Plaza66， 以及杭州恒隆广场开幕，均成为关键催化剂。当中，杭州恒隆广场已有83%零售面积及27%办公室面积 获预租，2027年有望带来显著贡献。 ...

摩根士丹利将恒隆地产的目标价由9港元上调至10.5港元，因基本面改善，NAV折让收窄(由60%降至 50%)，维持"增持"评级。 该行提到，奢侈品集团LVMH反映内地业务于第三季有所改善，加上老铺黄金将落户Plaza 66，以及杭 州恒隆广场开幕，均成为关键催化剂。当中，杭州恒隆广场已有83%零售面积及27%办公室面积获预 租，2027年有望带来显著贡献。 集团的内地零售业务开始好转，上海的港汇恒隆广场及恒隆广场第三季租户销售额分别按年增长31%及 8%，而上半年则为增长10%及倒退8%。国庆黄金周方面，首四日内地商场整体租户销售额按年增长 15%，当中武汉恒隆广场与上海港汇恒隆广场分别录得超过70%及50%的按年升幅。 ...

瑞银发表研究报告指，恒隆地产管理层在投资者日上透露，第三季内地租户销售按年增长10%，扭转首 季(-7%)及次季(-1%)的跌势，其中上海恒隆广场及港汇恒隆广场销售分别按年增长8%及31%，均较上半 年改善。与2023年相比，第三季整体内地租户销售仍低10%，但已较上半年的低16%进一步改善。 瑞银指，恒隆旗下内地商场销售增长趋势延续至十一黄金周，长假期首四日租户销售按年升15%，人流 增长3%，整体销售增长主要受国内冠军品牌推动，传统奢侈品牌租户销售于7月至8月录轻微增长，预 期随着老铺黄金及香奈儿旗舰店分别于10月底及11月开业，上海恒隆广场租户销售增长将进一步加速。 瑞银预期股价将对强劲的销售作出正面反应，重申对恒隆地产的"买入"评级，目标价维持9.6港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hang Lung Group is facing ongoing performance pressure but is actively expanding its presence in key mainland cities to mitigate revenue fluctuations [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hang Lung reported total revenue of HKD 5.202 billion, a year-on-year decline of 18% [3]. - Property sales revenue plummeted by 87% to HKD 161 million, significantly impacting overall performance [3]. - Rental income decreased by 3% to HKD 4.912 billion, now accounting for 94% of total revenue [1][3]. - The overall operating profit fell by 6% to HKD 3.408 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders at HKD 1.191 billion, affected by reduced rental profits and increased financial costs [3]. Strategic Initiatives - In July, Hang Lung announced plans to lease two properties in the core Wulin business district of Hangzhou for 20 years, with a total rental of approximately HKD 3.336 billion [1]. - This expansion is expected to increase Hang Lung's commercial footprint in the Wulin area by 40%, enhancing visibility and accessibility for Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza [1][7]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates a slight recovery in retail business in the second half of the year, driven by improved market sentiment and consumer confidence [4]. - Hang Lung's ongoing projects in Shanghai and Hangzhou are crucial for its growth strategy, with Shanghai remaining the most significant market for the company [5][9]. Development Projects - Hang Lung is developing a high-end commercial complex in Hangzhou, which includes a shopping mall, office buildings, and a hotel, set to open in phases starting in the second half of 2025 [5][7]. - The company has ongoing construction projects valued at HKD 26.137 billion in rental assets and HKD 8.118 billion in saleable assets, primarily in mainland cities [9].

Core Viewpoint - Hang Lung Group demonstrates a resilient business model amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment, despite a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Hang Lung Group and Hang Lung Properties decreased by 18% and 19% to HKD 5.202 billion and HKD 4.968 billion, respectively, with mainland China contributing HKD 3.502 billion and Hong Kong contributing HKD 1.7 billion [1][2]. - Property sales revenue plummeted by 87% to HKD 161 million, while core leasing income showed relative stability, with rental income and operating profit down by 3% and 4% to HKD 4.912 billion and HKD 3.499 billion, respectively [2]. - Shareholders' net profit for Hang Lung Group fell by 7% to HKD 1.191 billion, and for Hang Lung Properties, it decreased by 9% to HKD 1.587 billion [2][3]. Debt and Financial Strategy - As of the reporting date, total borrowings amounted to HKD 55.972 billion, with 42% denominated in RMB as a natural hedge against mainland investments [3]. - Fixed-rate debt accounted for 42% of total debt, including bonds and fixed-rate bank loans [3]. Market Adaptation and Strategy - The company is adjusting its mall brand mix to adapt to changing retail market conditions and consumer habits, eliminating the categorization of malls into "high-end" and "sub-high-end" [3]. - In Hong Kong, the company is implementing measures such as offering fully furnished or partitioned office space solutions to meet tenant demands [3]. Future Outlook and Expansion - The company is optimistic about achieving "micro-growth" in 2025, although the performance in the second half of the year will be crucial [4][5]. - Hang Lung is intensifying its market presence in mainland China, with a significant 20-year operating lease signed for the Hangzhou department store, which will increase retail space by 40% [6][7]. - Upcoming projects include the Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza, which is expected to enhance revenue and returns significantly, with a current pre-leasing rate of approximately 81% [7][8]. Challenges and Market Conditions - The overall office market remains challenging, with rising vacancy rates and declining rents due to insufficient demand for premium office spaces [2]. - The uncertain market environment poses challenges for upcoming projects, particularly if economic pressures continue to affect high-end consumer markets [8].

Core Viewpoint - Hang Lung Properties reported a 19% year-on-year decline in total revenue for the first half of 2025, amounting to HKD 4.968 billion, with core rental income also showing a downward trend [2] Group 1: Revenue Performance - The rental income from properties decreased by 3% year-on-year, totaling HKD 4.678 billion, with mainland property rental income down by 2% to HKD 3.19 billion [2] - The overall performance of the mainland shopping mall portfolio remained stable, generating RMB 2.412 billion in revenue, with a notable 8% decline in tenant sales attributed to cautious high-end consumer spending [2][3] - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza led the revenue among malls with RMB 0.822 billion, maintaining a high occupancy rate of 98% [2] Group 2: Challenges and Strategies - The rental income from smaller projects in Tianjin, Wuhan, and Shenyang saw significant declines, with the largest drop exceeding 35% [3] - The office properties faced pressure, with overall income down 5% to RMB 0.528 billion, primarily due to decreased occupancy rates and rental adjustments [3] - The CEO expressed confidence in achieving slight rental income growth in the latter half of the year, despite the current downward trend [3] Group 3: Future Developments - The construction of Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza, acquired for over RMB 10 billion in 2018, is nearing completion, with the mall expected to open in mid-2026 and a pre-leasing rate of 81% [4] - The company plans to expand by leasing additional properties in Hangzhou, which will increase the project size by 40% and enhance the shopping experience [5]