项目总投资将超20亿。 12月12日，恒隆地产（00101.HK）正式与上海九百（集团）有限公司签约，拿下了上海南京西路1038号商业运营项目，也即为外界熟知的梅龙镇广场。 第一财经记者从恒隆方面了解到，项目由恒隆以20年的营运租赁形式经营，将为其在南京西路的项目增加约9.6万平方米的总建筑面积，使其整体在南京西 路的物业组合扩大约44%至约31.23万平方米，包括商场以及办公楼等业态。 恒隆与九百集团将联合对南京西路1038号项目进行整体改造升级。其中，恒隆方面将投入不低于5亿元人民币，作为项目酒店、商场及办公区域的装修费 用。整体投资将超20亿。 对于恒隆来讲，一直以来，其旗下的上海恒隆广场作为成熟的重奢商业体，受制于5.37万方左右的小体量，发展备受制约。正在扩建中的三期项目中，新增 楼面面积也仅约3080平方米。 项目将被打造为集零售、酒店及办公于一体的综合商业地标。按计划，商业部分将于2027年初开业；办公与酒店部分计划于2028年5月前启用。同时，酒店 部分为一家总面积不低于1.8万平方米的国际顶尖品牌酒店。这也是该项目首次引入奢华酒店。 在此次升级之后，恒隆南京西路的物业组合中，整体商业面积将扩 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：王翼羽/李佳璠/孙元祺 盈利预测与估值 维持盈利预测不变。维持跑赢行业评级与目标价9.46 港元/股，对应15 倍2025 年核心P/E、5.5%股息收 益率和7%上行空间。 公司交易于14.5 倍2025 年核心P/E和5.8%股息收益率。 公司动态 风险 公司近况 恒隆地产12 月9 日公告，其与无锡市梁溪城市发展公司合作，以长期租约获取毗邻无锡恒隆广场的地标 性商业项目经营权。 评论 无锡项目外拓为"恒隆V.3"战略下的又一重要进展。恒隆于今年9 月正式发布"恒隆V.3"战略，核心在于 聚焦当下已布局的核心城市，以高资本效益为原则、精选现有项目再投资，并积极通过合作等方式扩大 项目版图。我们认为在核心城市商业竞争格局相对清晰的背景下，以较轻的投入巩固自身市场地位为较 优战略选择。截至目前公司公告昆明、上海、杭州及无锡四个项目的轻资产外拓或扩建，我们认为在拓 展零售面积的基础上，其有望带来街区+盒子的多元空间体验、增加临街展示面及入场动线等多重利 好；我们建议关注拓展项目逐步开出后对公司租金利润增长的额外贡献，但亦提示从签约到交付运营存 一定时滞。 无锡恒隆广场经营向好，竞争优势有 ...

中金指，虽然第四季按年基数有所上升，仍预计10-11月公司内地商场零售额表现延续第三季势头，预 计第三季零售额按年增长10%；近期重点项目上海恒隆广场亮点频出，包括Home-to-Luxury店庆活动成 功举办、Chanel正式门店于1层重新开出等。该行对其盈利预测与估值维持盈利预测不变，维持"跑赢行 业"评级与目标价9.46港元。 格隆汇12月11日｜中金发表报告指，恒隆地产12月9日公告与无锡市梁溪城市发展公司合作，以长期租 约获取毗邻无锡恒隆广场的地标性商业项目经营权。报告指，无锡项目外拓为恒隆V.3战略下的又一重 要进展。恒隆于今年9月正式发布恒隆V.3战略，核心在于聚焦当下已布局的核心城市，以高资本效益为 原则、精选现有项目再投资，并积极通过合作等方式扩大项目版图。该行认为在核心城市商业竞争格局 相对清晰的背景下，以较轻的投入巩固自身市场地位为较优战略选择。 ...

Core Insights - The signing of the third phase of the Wuxi Henglong Plaza project on December 9, 2025, marks the beginning of a super commercial cluster exceeding 600,000 square meters, focusing on revitalizing the city center and enhancing the commercial competitiveness of the Liangxi District [2][19] - Henglong Group's strategy "Henglong V.3" is being implemented in the Yangtze River Delta, aiming to address urban renewal challenges and reshape the Zhongshan Road core business circle [2][19] Group 1 - Wuxi Henglong Plaza has become a leading commercial entity outside Shanghai since its opening in 2013, contributing significantly to Henglong Group's revenue growth [4][21] - The project is strategically located at the intersection of Zhongshan Road and Renmin Middle Road, with direct access to subway lines, enhancing its market position [6][23] - The first and second phases of the project have successfully attracted over 250 global high-end brands, with many being first-time entrants to Wuxi and Jiangsu [6][25] Group 2 - The third phase will introduce over 80 new brands, expanding the retail space by approximately 47,000 square meters, increasing the total retail area by 38% to about 169,000 square meters [9][27] - Henglong's strategy focuses on experience-based retail and community connection, aiming to create a new urban lifestyle space for young consumers [10][27] - The project will enhance the overall value and appeal of Wuxi Henglong Plaza, reinforcing its status as a top commercial landmark in the region [16][33] Group 3 - The "Henglong V.3" strategy emphasizes asset optimization and aims to deepen existing market presence while enhancing customer experience [14][31] - The project is expected to complement the existing commercial landscape, fostering a collaborative business environment in the Zhongshan Road area [30][31] - Initiatives such as tax refund services and foreign currency payment options will enhance Wuxi's attractiveness as an international consumption center [31][33]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating and profit forecast for Hang Lung Properties (00101), with a target price of HKD 9.46 per share, corresponding to a 15x core P/E for 2025, a 5.5% dividend yield, and a 5% upside potential [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The retail performance of mainland shopping malls is expected to improve, with a projected year-on-year increase of 10% in retail sales for Q3 2025, following a trend of quarterly improvement throughout the year [2] - Contributing factors include a low base from the previous year (Q3 2024 retail sales down 18%), effective marketing strategies, and an expected 9% year-on-year increase in foot traffic during July and August [2] - During the National Day holiday, retail sales increased by 15% year-on-year, with notable growth in Wuhan and Shanghai [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched the "Hang Lung V.3" strategy, focusing on reinvesting in existing projects and exploring potential opportunities in surrounding areas [3] - Specific initiatives include the expansion of Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza, which is expected to increase rentable area by 30%, and the transformation of Shanghai Port Exchange into a five-star hotel [3] Group 3: Performance of Key Malls - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza is expected to maintain its leading position in the luxury market through targeted services for high-end clientele, with new openings anticipated to further boost retail sales [4] - Shanghai Port Exchange is focusing on luxury brand expansion and optimizing its mix of sports, outdoor, and dining brands, with a projected year-on-year retail sales increase of 31% for Q3 2025 [4] - Wuxi Hang Lung Plaza has seen continuous growth since introducing luxury brands, with over 180 new brands expected to be signed in 2024-2025, including more than 70 first stores in Jiangsu or Wuxi [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hang Lung Properties Limited reported a significant decline in property sales revenue, leading to a 19% year-on-year decrease in total revenue for the first half of 2025, amounting to HKD 4.968 billion, while rental income remained relatively stable [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue decreased by 19% to HKD 4.968 billion due to an 87% drop in property sales [1] - Total rental income was HKD 4.678 billion, only down 3% year-on-year [1] - Shareholders' net profit for the first half was HKD 1.587 billion, reflecting a 9% decline [1] Group 2: Rental Business Insights - Rental income from mainland China was HKD 3.19 billion, a slight decrease of 2%, while rental income from Hong Kong was HKD 1.488 billion, down 4% [1] - Retail property occupancy rates remained high at 94% in mainland China and 93% in Hong Kong [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on enhancing customer experiences in its malls through innovative content and collaborations with brands [2] - The hotel business saw an 84% increase in revenue to HKD 129 million, signaling positive growth despite its small contribution [2] - The Hangzhou project is expected to be a key growth driver, with the first phase of the mall set to open in mid-2026 and a pre-leasing rate of 81% [2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Sustainability - The leasing agreement with Baida Group will enhance the retail space by 40%, improving visibility and accessibility [2] - Other key projects in mainland China are progressing, with the second phase of Wuxi Hang Lung Plaza set for phased delivery starting in late 2025 [3] - The company is committed to low-carbon transformation, with 80% of its mainland properties using renewable energy [3] - A mid-term dividend of HKD 0.12 per share was announced, with options for shareholders to receive new shares instead of cash [3] - The company expresses confidence in achieving "micro-growth" in future performance, while remaining cautious about market trends in the latter half of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hang Lung Group demonstrates a resilient business model amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment, despite a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Hang Lung Group and Hang Lung Properties decreased by 18% and 19% to HKD 5.202 billion and HKD 4.968 billion, respectively, with mainland China contributing HKD 3.502 billion and Hong Kong contributing HKD 1.7 billion [1][2]. - Property sales revenue plummeted by 87% to HKD 161 million, while core leasing income showed relative stability, with rental income and operating profit down by 3% and 4% to HKD 4.912 billion and HKD 3.499 billion, respectively [2]. - Shareholders' net profit for Hang Lung Group fell by 7% to HKD 1.191 billion, and for Hang Lung Properties, it decreased by 9% to HKD 1.587 billion [2][3]. Debt and Financial Strategy - As of the reporting date, total borrowings amounted to HKD 55.972 billion, with 42% denominated in RMB as a natural hedge against mainland investments [3]. - Fixed-rate debt accounted for 42% of total debt, including bonds and fixed-rate bank loans [3]. Market Adaptation and Strategy - The company is adjusting its mall brand mix to adapt to changing retail market conditions and consumer habits, eliminating the categorization of malls into "high-end" and "sub-high-end" [3]. - In Hong Kong, the company is implementing measures such as offering fully furnished or partitioned office space solutions to meet tenant demands [3]. Future Outlook and Expansion - The company is optimistic about achieving "micro-growth" in 2025, although the performance in the second half of the year will be crucial [4][5]. - Hang Lung is intensifying its market presence in mainland China, with a significant 20-year operating lease signed for the Hangzhou department store, which will increase retail space by 40% [6][7]. - Upcoming projects include the Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza, which is expected to enhance revenue and returns significantly, with a current pre-leasing rate of approximately 81% [7][8]. Challenges and Market Conditions - The overall office market remains challenging, with rising vacancy rates and declining rents due to insufficient demand for premium office spaces [2]. - The uncertain market environment poses challenges for upcoming projects, particularly if economic pressures continue to affect high-end consumer markets [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company is confident in achieving slight growth this year, contingent on the performance in the third and fourth quarters [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of HKD 52.02 billion, a decrease of 18% compared to HKD 63.79 billion in the same period of 2024 [1] - Overall operating profit was HKD 34.08 billion, down 6% from HKD 36.13 billion year-on-year [1] - Shareholders' basic net profit was HKD 11.91 billion, a decline of 7% from HKD 12.81 billion in 2024 [1] Property Sales - Property sales revenue fell significantly to HKD 1.61 billion, down 87% year-on-year, with mainland property sales at HKD 0.1 billion (down 60%) and Hong Kong property sales at HKD 1.51 billion (down 87%) [1] Hotel Business - The hotel segment showed strong performance with revenue of HKD 1.29 billion, an increase of 84% year-on-year, all derived from mainland operations [1] - The Shenyang Conrad Hotel generated HKD 0.62 billion (down 3%), while the newly opened Kunming Hyatt Hotel achieved HKD 0.57 billion in revenue [1] Rental Income - Rental income remained stable, decreasing only 3% to HKD 49.12 billion, despite a slowdown in consumer and office demand in Hong Kong and mainland China [2] - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza was the top performer with revenue of HKD 8.22 billion, significantly higher than other locations [2] Office Market Performance - The office rental market faced challenges with declining occupancy rates across several properties, attributed to oversupply [3] - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza's income dropped 7% due to market pressures, with occupancy falling to 82% [3] Future Developments - The company has signed a 20-year operating lease with Baida Group for the Hangzhou department store, which will increase retail space by 40% [4] - The total value of properties available for lease and sale is HKD 261.37 billion and HKD 81.18 billion, respectively, including various development projects [5] - The Hangzhou project is expected to open in mid-2026, with a pre-leasing rate of 81% [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape of shopping malls in Jiangsu province, highlighting the ongoing battle among cities like Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, and others to attract consumers and establish themselves as commercial hubs [2][5]. Group 1: Key Commercial Centers - Nanjing Deji Plaza is recognized as a leading luxury shopping destination, generating sales of 24.5 billion in 2024, and is noted for its high-end brand presence, including Hermès, Chanel, and Louis Vuitton [18]. - Wuxi Henglong Plaza, known as "Little Shanghai," features a luxury brand matrix with over 30 high-end brands and has a daily foot traffic of over 64,000 in early 2025 [5][8]. - Suzhou Renheng Warehouse Street, opened in September 2023, combines cultural heritage with modern shopping, featuring over 170 brands and a daily foot traffic of over 50,000 [12][11]. Group 2: Emerging Players - Changzhou Wujin Wuyue Plaza, which opened in May 2012, has become a commercial leader in Changzhou, achieving sales of 2.5 billion in 2024 and hosting over 350 brands [14][16]. - Nantong CBD Dayoujing, operational since November 2011, has maintained an average annual sales of over 1.5 billion and attracts over 50,000 visitors daily [33][37]. - Taizhou Vanke City, opened in June 2021, has quickly established itself as a commercial hotspot, with over 250 brands and a daily foot traffic of over 40,000 [38][40]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the fierce competition among shopping malls in Jiangsu, with each city striving to enhance their commercial offerings and attract high-value consumers through innovative marketing and brand strategies [5][19]. - The concept of "first-store economy" is highlighted, where new brands and flagship stores are crucial for driving foot traffic and sales, as seen in various malls across the province [12][41]. - The integration of cultural elements and local aesthetics into mall designs is becoming a trend, as exemplified by projects like Xu Zhou Wen Miao and Huai An Hua Xin Mall, which aim to create unique shopping experiences [52][60].