按照成品油调价时间表来看，1月6日24时，国内成品油零售限价将迎来2026年第一轮调整时间点。机构 跟踪的最新国际原油价格变动状况预测数据显示，本轮成品油零售限价上调幅度不足50元/吨的调整红 线要求，因此本轮成品油零售限价调整或遇搁浅。 国内成品油本轮计价周期以来，国际原油价格整体呈现震荡偏弱走势，波动幅度有限，参考的原油变化 率在正值内逐渐回落。 卓创资讯成品油分析师戴田东表示，虽然地缘局势紧张支撑油市，但供应过剩背景持续笼罩市场，且美 国处于需求淡季，美国石油库存上升预期笼罩市场，下游交易者心态谨慎，国际油价整体呈现震荡偏弱 走势。 卓创资讯监测模型测算显示，截至1月5日收盘，即国内成品油本轮计价周期的第10个工作日，参考原油 的变化率为1.07%，对应的汽柴油零售限价调整幅度均不足50元/吨。 隆众资讯表示，本轮成品油零售限价调整窗口是2026年第一轮，也可能是2026年的首次搁浅。 戴田东表示，这意味着在未来半个月内（1月6日24时-1月20日24时），居民驾车出行燃油成本及物流运 输燃油成本将维持不变。 | | | 2026年成品油调价日历 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that during the current refined oil retail price adjustment cycle (from December 22, 2025, to January 6, 2026), international crude oil prices initially rose and then fell, leading to a high likelihood of retail price adjustments being suspended [1] - According to Zhaochuang Information, concerns about potential U.S. blockades on oil tankers from a South American country, coupled with the lack of a peace agreement in Eastern Europe, initially drove crude oil futures prices to rise [1] - However, fears of global oversupply eventually outweighed geopolitical concerns, resulting in a continuous decline in crude oil prices towards the end of the cycle [1] Group 2 - As of January 2, the reference crude oil change rate was recorded at 1.04%, with expected increases in gasoline and diesel prices of approximately 45 yuan per ton [1] - Given that there is only one working day left before the price adjustment window opens, it is anticipated that the first refined oil retail price adjustment of 2026 may be suspended [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil in China is expected to decrease significantly, marking the tenth reduction of the year, driven by a decline in international crude oil prices [1] Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - The upcoming adjustment window for domestic refined oil retail prices is set for December 8, with a predicted decrease exceeding 50 yuan per ton [1] - The reference crude oil price change rate has been consistently negative, currently at -1.24%, indicating a likely reduction of 55 yuan per ton for both gasoline and diesel [1] - The expected price reductions translate to a decrease of approximately 0.04 yuan for 92-octane gasoline, 0.05 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.05 yuan for 0-octane diesel per liter [1] Group 2: Historical Context - Since 2025, there have been 23 rounds of adjustments in domestic refined oil retail prices, categorized as "seven increases, ten decreases, and six unchanged" [1] - Following the adjustment, the prices of gasoline and diesel per ton have decreased by 690 yuan and 660 yuan, respectively, compared to the end of the previous year [1] Group 3: Consumer Impact - If the price reduction is implemented, consumers will experience lower fuel costs, with a small private car's 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline costing approximately 2 yuan less to fill [1]

Group 1 - The international crude oil prices have shown narrow fluctuations during the current pricing cycle, with the change rate remaining in negative territory, leading to an expected reduction in domestic refined oil retail prices for the tenth time this year [1] - As of December 5, the reference crude oil change rate was -1.24%, and it is anticipated that the retail prices for gasoline and diesel will decrease by 55 yuan per ton, translating to reductions of 0.04 yuan, 0.05 yuan, and 0.05 yuan for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel respectively [1] - The reduction in oil prices will lower consumer fuel costs, with a small private car filling up 50 liters of 92 gasoline saving approximately 2 yuan, and a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers monthly saving around 89 yuan in fuel costs before the next pricing window [2] Group 2 - Future oil price trends will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and a potential weakening of the US dollar, which may provide long-term support for crude oil prices [2] - The next pricing window is expected to open on December 22, with the new cycle showing a positive change rate at the start [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil in China is expected to decrease significantly, with predictions indicating a reduction of over 50 yuan per ton due to falling international crude oil prices [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The latest data shows that the reference crude oil price change rate is at -1.50%, leading to an anticipated reduction of 70 yuan per ton for gasoline and 65 yuan per ton for diesel [1]. - The expected price reductions translate to a decrease of 0.05 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.06 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.06 yuan per liter for 0-octane diesel [1]. - If the price adjustments are implemented, consumers will experience a reduction in fuel costs, with a small private car filling up with 92-octane gasoline saving approximately 2.5 yuan [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - Since 2025, there have been 22 rounds of adjustments to the domestic retail price of refined oil, categorized as "seven increases, nine decreases, and six unchanged" [2]. - Following the adjustments, the prices of gasoline and diesel per ton have decreased by 620 yuan and 595 yuan, respectively, compared to the end of the previous year [2].

Core Insights - The price of gasoline and diesel in Shanxi Province will increase by 125 CNY and 120 CNY per ton respectively, marking the seventh increase in domestic retail prices [1] - Despite concerns over potential oversupply due to OPEC+ possibly increasing production and rising U.S. oil inventories, the overall trend in international crude oil prices has been downward [1] - The upcoming price adjustment window is set for November 24, 2025, with expectations of a potential decrease in prices based on current crude oil trends [2] Price Adjustments - The new retail prices for gasoline are set at 6.90 CNY per liter for 92 and 7.45 CNY per liter for 95 [1] - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank with 92 gasoline will cost an additional 5 CNY, while the monthly fuel cost for a typical vehicle running 2000 km will increase by approximately 7 CNY [1] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 km per month will see an increase in fuel costs of about 177 CNY before the next price adjustment [1] Market Outlook - Future market focus will be on the crude oil inventory situation following the seasonal decline in U.S. oil demand, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in international oil prices [2] - The next pricing cycle may start with a negative crude oil price change rate, potentially leading to a price decrease of around 70 CNY per ton [2]

Group 1 - The retail price of gasoline and diesel will increase by 125 and 120 yuan per ton respectively, with a rise of 0.10 yuan for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel, marking the seventh price adjustment of the year [1] - The increase in retail prices is attributed to the ongoing supply surplus in the oil market due to OPEC+ further increasing production, despite a decrease in the rate of change for crude oil prices [1] - The North American market is entering a demand off-season, leading to continuous inventory accumulation, which is expected to result in a negative change rate for crude oil prices in the new pricing cycle, with an anticipated decrease of 70 yuan per ton on the first day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis from Zhaochuang Information indicates that during the current retail price adjustment cycle for refined oil (from October 27 to November 10), international crude oil prices have shown a narrow fluctuation and a downward trend in average values, leading to a significant decrease in the crude oil change rate after a high starting point. The probability of an increase in retail price for refined oil is high, but the expected increase is narrowing [1] Group 1 - The crude oil change rate as of November 6 is reported at 3.12%, suggesting an expected increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 135 CNY per ton [1] - The anticipated price adjustments for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel are expected to rise by 0.11 CNY [1] - There is still one working day before the price adjustment window opens, indicating that the expected increase may further narrow [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis from Zhaochuang Information indicates that during the current retail price adjustment cycle for refined oil (from October 27 to November 10), international crude oil prices have shown a narrow fluctuation and a downward trend in average values, leading to a significant decrease in the crude oil price change rate, which is expected to result in a retail price increase for refined oil, although the anticipated increase is narrowing [1] Group 1 - The crude oil price change rate as of November 6 is reported at 3.12%, suggesting an expected increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 135 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.11 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1] - The price adjustment window is set to open on November 10 at 24:00, with one working day remaining before the adjustment [1] - The probability of a price increase for refined oil is high, but the expected increase margin is likely to further narrow before the adjustment [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the retail prices of refined oil in China are experiencing their ninth reduction of the year, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 265 and 255 yuan per ton respectively, translating to a drop of 0.21 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.22 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.22 yuan for 0 diesel [1] - The price adjustment is attributed to the recent strong rebound in international oil prices due to intensified sanctions against Russian oil by Europe and the United States [1] - There is an expectation for an increase in retail prices in the next cycle, with an anticipated rise of 230 yuan per ton, and the next price adjustment window is set for November 10 at 24:00 [1]