Oil Market - Oil prices saw a significant increase, with WTI March contract closing at $65.14 per barrel, up $1.93 (3.05%) [2][14] - Brent April contract closed at $69.46 per barrel, up $2.13 (3.16%) [2][14] - EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventory by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2024 [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 rose by 3.98% to 2797 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 increased by 3.39% to 3268 yuan/ton [3][17] - China's refining capacity utilization rate for reduced pressure was 68.05%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2603 increased by 1.69% to 3361 yuan/ton [5][18] - Social inventory rate for asphalt rose to 25.43%, up 0.64% week-on-week [5][18] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 rose by 205 yuan/ton to 16385 yuan/ton [6][19] - Natural rubber social inventory in China increased by 0.9 million tons to 128.1 million tons, a 0.7% increase [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5218 yuan/ton, up 1.32%, while EG2605 closed at 3788 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7296 yuan/ton, up 1.25% [7][20] Methanol - Domestic methanol prices showed a mixed trend, with Taicang spot price at 2238 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia at 1797.5 yuan/ton [8][21] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly in February, while demand may decline due to MTO unit repairs [8][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China polypropylene (PP) ranged from 6550 to 6750 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][22] - The market is expected to see an increase in inventory as the holiday approaches [9][22] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed a strong adjustment, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4820 to 4900 yuan/ton [10][23] - The market is facing weak demand from the real estate sector, which may limit support for PVC downstream products [10][23] Urea - Urea futures closed at 1787 yuan/ton, up 0.56% day-on-day, with stable prices in the spot market [11][24] - Daily production of urea was reported at 21.03 million tons, with a slight increase expected due to the resumption of gas-based production [11][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures closed at 1229 yuan/ton, up 2.08%, with stable prices in the spot market [12][26] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.37%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points [12][26] Glass - Glass futures closed at 1109 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with stable prices in the spot market [13][27] - Concerns about supply fluctuations are present as multiple production lines are planned for resumption [13][27]

Oil Market - Oil prices increased, with WTI March contract closing at $63.21 per barrel, up $1.07 (1.72%) and Brent April contract closing at $67.33 per barrel, up $1.03 (1.55%) [2][17] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, have contributed to the rise in oil prices, as the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone near a U.S. aircraft carrier [2][17] - API data showed a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 11.079 million barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 4.736 million barrels [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) fell by 3.81% to 22,701 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) decreased by 2.28% to 3,168 yuan per ton [3][19] - Supply from Western arbitrage ships is expected to remain high, keeping the low-sulfur market well supplied [3][19] - Demand for marine fuel oil is anticipated to increase ahead of the Spring Festival [3][19] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract (BU2603) dropped by 1.72% to 3,309 yuan per ton, influenced by oil price movements [4][20] - Inventory levels are expected to rise as downstream demand slows during the Spring Festival [4][20] - The asphalt market is experiencing pressure from weak demand and fluctuating raw material costs [4][20] Rubber - Shanghai rubber prices increased, with the main contract (RU2605) rising by 200 yuan per ton to 16,180 yuan per ton [5][21] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the stable development of natural rubber, cotton, and sugar industries [5][21] - The overall market sentiment is weak due to increased supply and reduced demand, leading to price fluctuations [5][21] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,150 yuan per ton, up 1.14%, while EG2605 closed at 3,767 yuan per ton, unchanged [6][22] - The PX futures contract closed at 7,206 yuan per ton, up 0.78%, with a current spot price of $897 per ton [6][22] - The overall chemical market is experiencing a downturn, with expectations of inventory accumulation in the first quarter [6][22] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2,225 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease in domestic production expected [7][23] - Demand is anticipated to decline due to maintenance at MTO facilities, impacting overall consumption [7][23] - The Iranian shipping situation may provide some price support, but uncertainty remains [7][24] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins negative for oil-based and methanol-based processes [8][24] - HDPE film prices are at 7,536 yuan per ton, while LDPE film prices are at 8,888 yuan per ton [8][24] - The market is expected to remain weak as inventory levels increase ahead of the Spring Festival [8][24] PVC - PVC prices in East China are stable, with the electric stone method priced between 4,780-4,860 yuan per ton [9][25] - The market is facing weak demand from the real estate sector, leading to expectations of reduced downstream activity [9][25] - The upcoming removal of export tax rebates is driving a "rush to export" demand [9][25] Urea - Urea futures prices decreased by 1.06% to 1,770 yuan per ton, with stable spot prices in various regions [10][26] - Production levels are fluctuating around 210,000 tons per day, with expectations of increased supply as companies resume operations [10][26] - Demand is expected to slow as the Spring Festival approaches, potentially leading to price adjustments [10][26] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed a slight decline, closing at 1,201 yuan per ton [11][27] - The market is characterized by stable prices from manufacturers, with limited new drivers for price increases [11][27] - Demand remains weak as downstream inventory levels are reportedly sufficient [11][27] Glass - Glass futures prices showed slight increases, closing at 1,072 yuan per ton, with stable spot prices [12][28] - Concerns about supply disruptions due to production changes are affecting market sentiment [12][28] - Seasonal demand is expected to weaken as the Spring Festival approaches, potentially leading to inventory accumulation [12][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products generally declined on Monday due to factors such as geopolitical events and cost - side impacts. Most products are expected to be in an oscillatory state. For example, crude oil prices dropped significantly due to the potential nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US and the decision of OPEC+ to maintain production. Other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, etc., were also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost fluctuations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI 3 - month contract closed down $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a 4.71% decline; Brent new 4 - month contract closed down $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a 4.36% decline; SC2603 closed at 450 yuan/barrel, down 22.7 yuan/barrel, a 4.8% decline. Iran may hold high - level talks with the US in the coming days. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. Brazil's 2025 oil production reached a record 3.77 million barrels per day, up 12.3% from the previous year. The price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2603) fell 7.01% to 2,679 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) fell 5.92% to 3,128 yuan/ton. The supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2603) fell 4.879% to 3,299 yuan/ton. In the first half of February, the inventory in the north is at a low level, while in the south, the inventory is expected to rise during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; EG2605 closed at 3,767 yuan/ton, down 3.73%. Some PTA and polyester devices have changes in operation. The price of polyester raw materials is expected to oscillate following the cost [4] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) fell 380 yuan/ton to 15,980 yuan/ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan/ton. The domestic production in February is expected to decrease slightly, and the import volume will decline from a high level. The demand from MTO devices is expected to decline. The price is expected to maintain a low - level wide - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a loss in profit. The supply in February is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will enter a holiday period, with inventory passively increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply in February will remain high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on February 2, 2026, compared with January 30 [9] 3.3 Market News - Iran and the US will restart nuclear negotiations on Friday. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and distillate inventories are expected to decline last week, while futures inventories may increase [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][15][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][36] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, etc. [59][61][63] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and professional titles [73][74][75]