邱世梁 □ 周期反转：更新驱动与复苏逻辑下，周期板块的盈利和现金流将得到改善，从而有能力和动力去进行 技术迭代与创新 □ 成长崛起：AI引领产业变革，关注具身智能的"星辰大海" □ 出海爆发：中国企业通过全球布局，不仅能够规避单一市场风险，更重要的是打开了成长天花板 ◎记者 孙小程 近期，浙商证券研究所联席所长邱世梁在"上证首席讲坛"演讲时表示，当前市场正处于一轮由科技引领 的行情之中，且核心特征日益明显。他认为，可着眼于周期反转、成长崛起与出海爆发三大关键方向， 进行中长期布局。 对于未来半年到一年的A股市场，邱世梁持积极态度："从量化统计看，一轮行情周期不可能在几个月 或半年内结束。从去年9月底以来，这轮行情运行约一年，参照历史周期，此轮行情还将延续。" 他分析称，"反内卷"政策稳步推进下，上市公司的净资产收益率（ROE）水平有望全面提升，此轮行情 的时间长度和强度值得期待，"对于投资者而言，应更注重寻找弹性，立足于中长期投资的视角，分享 科技引领的时代红利"。 周期反转： 更新驱动与复苏逻辑下的机会 关于近期关注的重点方向，邱世梁表示非常看好周期板块的反转机会。以工程机械和造船这两大典型周 期行业为例， ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery, benefiting from the release of real estate risks and export growth, with engineering machinery expected to see both replacement and new demand driven by major projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project [1][4] - Emerging industries led by technology, such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries, are promising, with upstream equipment benefiting from increased capital expenditure due to improved profits and cash flow [1][4] - Chinese leading companies are benefiting from the trade war, with export-related companies showing a growth rate exceeding 14% [1][6] Core Insights 1. **Cyclical Recovery**: The engineering machinery sector is expected to transition from export demand to replacement and then to new demand, aided by a significant decline in the real estate market that has released substantial risks [4][6] 2. **Emerging Growth**: New industries driven by technology, particularly in photovoltaics and lithium batteries, are anticipated to thrive, with both upstream and downstream sectors benefiting from improved financial conditions [4][6] 3. **Export Breakthrough**: Despite international market concerns about overcapacity, leading Chinese companies have made significant progress in the trade war, achieving a growth rate of over 14% in export-related sectors [6] 4. **Military Trade Boom**: The military industry is poised for growth due to changes in valuation systems and increasing geopolitical tensions, enhancing the international competitiveness of Chinese military enterprises [1][6] Additional Important Insights - The anti-involution policy aims to prevent vicious competition, stabilize product prices, and promote market self-discipline, which may create more opportunities in cyclical sectors like engineering machinery and humanoid robots [5][6] - The humanoid robot industry is gaining national attention, with practical applications being validated, such as TaoTao Automotive's sales and production of humanoid robots in the U.S., laying the groundwork for large-scale promotion [3][8] - The pure electric six-seater market is witnessing dual improvements in supply and demand, with a wave of vehicle replacements expected in 2025 due to technological advancements and a shorter replacement cycle compared to traditional fuel vehicles [19][21] Recommendations - Companies such as TaoTao Automotive and Giant Star Technology are recommended for their strong export capabilities and competitive advantages in the global market [1][13] - In the military sector, companies like Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group and China North Industries Group are highlighted for their potential in military trade development [1][14]