中央经济工作会议强调，2026年我国将坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推 动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 消费活力如何进一步激发？货币政策有何发力空间？人民币汇率怎么走？这些都是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口，也是监管的必答题。围 绕上述问题，北京商报记者专访了广开首席产业研究院首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平。 2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 全球经济在波动中前行，中国金融市场在多重政策合力下展现出新的韧性与活力。人民银行延续流动性宽松的基调，通过降准、降息等工具为 经济修复提供支持，货币政策与财政政策协调配合，金融"五篇大文章"系统推进，一系列举措旨在打通经济循环、激发内需潜力、优化金融供 给。 2026年我国将扩大优质消费品和服务供给，培育壮大新的消费增长点，积极打造消费新场景，把扩大消费与因地制宜发展新质生产力结合起 来。一是深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。优化"两新"政策实施，"国补"额度有望在2025年基础上适度 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by real - estate stimulus policy rumors, the black - metal sector rose today, with iron ore leading the increase, but coking coal still fell before the close. Steel spot trading was generally fair, with increased low - price speculation and futures - cash purchases, while rigid demand was average. This week, building materials production decreased rapidly, while plate production increased slightly. Steel inventories decreased overall, with social inventory decreasing faster than factory inventory. Affected by seasonality, rebar demand dropped significantly, but hot - rolled demand continued to rise. It is expected that pig iron production will continue to decline this week, but blast - furnace profits have recovered, reducing the drive for active production cuts. Recently, coal and coke prices dropped sharply, driving steel prices down, but in December, coal supply may shrink again, and steel mills have restocking expectations. With a structural shortage of iron ore PB powder, steel costs are supported. Although building materials demand declines seasonally, it is not weaker than the seasonal average, and manufacturing demand is still supported. Therefore, short - term steel prices will remain range - bound with raw materials, and the performance may be weaker than in November. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. - Unilateral trading is expected to maintain a slightly upward - trending oscillation. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot - rolled - coal ratio and the hot - rolled - rebar spread at high prices. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3250 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3150 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3280 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3190 yuan (unchanged) [4]. Market Research and Judgment - **Transaction Strategy**: - Unilateral: Maintain a slightly upward - trending oscillation [6]. - Arbitrage: Short the hot - rolled - coal ratio and the hot - rolled - rebar spread at high prices [6]. - Options: Wait and see [6]. - **Important Information**: - In November, the global blast - furnace steel mill pig iron production was 104.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.78 million tons (4.4% decline) and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. Excluding mainland China, the sample production of other countries and regions was 34.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.11 million tons (3.1% decline) and a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The average daily pig iron production of blast - furnace steel mills outside mainland China in November was 1.1401 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.001 million tons (0.09% increase) [7][8]. - China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year (in line with expectations, compared with 0.2% in the previous month), and the PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year (expected to decrease by 2%, compared with a 2.1% decrease in the previous month) [8]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes 31 figures showing various data such as steel prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2021 to 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][11][12]...[49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Insights - In June, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year decline, with total sales amounting to 370.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 21% compared to the previous year. The total sales area was 16.8 million square meters, down 30% year-on-year, indicating a widening decline compared to May [2] - The cumulative sales for the first half of the year for the top 100 companies decreased by 11% to 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline in the second quarter after a temporary stabilization in the first quarter due to policy effects [2] - The report anticipates that the launch of more "good housing" in core cities will lead to a hot market in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities will continue to experience low transaction volumes [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June, the sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies showed a significant decline, with the top 10 companies experiencing a 26% drop in sales, while the second and third tiers saw declines of 13% and 18% respectively [2] - The report highlights that the sales decline is expected to narrow in 2025 due to improved housing quality and stability in new home prices in high-energy cities [2] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive pressure of high-value new homes on the second-hand market, emphasizing that the advantages of new homes stem from local government concessions on land prices and planning [3] - It notes that the second-hand housing market has seen a significant drop in transaction volume since April, with new residential prices in 70 cities declining by 0.22% month-on-month and 4.08% year-on-year as of May [3] Policy Outlook - The report suggests that there is a high likelihood of new supportive policies being introduced in the third quarter, especially in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where there is still room for relaxation of purchase restrictions [3] - Potential policy measures include easing of provident fund withdrawal policies and monetary policy support, which could stimulate short-term market recovery [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stocks with strong price elasticity, including Beike-W (02423, Buy), Jindi Group (600383, Increase), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), Poly Development (600048, Buy), and China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy) [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the steady growth of the decorative paper water-based ink market in China, driven by the increasing demand for decorative paper in the real estate and home furnishing sectors [2][6][10] - The production of decorative paper water-based ink in China reached 108,400 tons in 2023, indicating a significant contribution to the overall decorative paper industry [5][6] - From 2015 to 2023, the sales volume of decorative printing paper in China increased from 490,000 tons to 1,032,500 tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.76% [2][4] Group 2 - The recovery of downstream industries, particularly real estate and home furnishing, has been supported by various government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [6][10] - The demand for engineered wood products, such as particleboard and fiberboard, is expected to rise, further increasing the need for decorative paper and its associated water-based inks [7][10] - The trend towards personalized and aesthetically pleasing furniture is anticipated to drive the demand for high-end decorative paper, which will, in turn, boost the market for decorative paper water-based inks [6][10] Group 3 - The decorative paper water-based ink market is projected to experience continued growth due to the increasing urbanization and rising disposable income of residents in China [6][10] - The shift towards engineered wood products as a sustainable alternative to solid wood is expected to enhance the market potential for decorative paper and its inks [10][11] - The overall market for decorative paper water-based inks is likely to expand as the proportion of decorative paper used in engineered wood products increases [10][11]