研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 Z0018817 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3250 元（+20），北京敬业 3150 元（+10），上海鞍钢 热卷 3280 元（+30），天津河钢热卷 3190 元（-）。 【交易策略】 受到地房产刺激政策传闻影响，今日黑色板块整体上涨，其中铁矿石领涨，但收 盘前焦煤依然下跌。钢材现货成交整体一般偏好，低价投机及期现拿货增加，刚需一 般。本周布谷网数据公布，建材加速减产而板材小幅增产；钢材库存整体去化，社库 去化速度快于厂库；受季节性影响，螺纹需求出现大幅下滑，但热轧需求继续回升。 根据高炉检修计划来看，预计本周铁水产量继续下滑，但高炉利润有所修复，后续主 动减产驱动有限；近期受外煤供应大幅增加及主力换月影响，煤焦大幅下跌，带动钢 材跟跌。然而 12 月煤矿受环保因素影响供 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Insights - In June, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year decline, with total sales amounting to 370.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 21% compared to the previous year. The total sales area was 16.8 million square meters, down 30% year-on-year, indicating a widening decline compared to May [2] - The cumulative sales for the first half of the year for the top 100 companies decreased by 11% to 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline in the second quarter after a temporary stabilization in the first quarter due to policy effects [2] - The report anticipates that the launch of more "good housing" in core cities will lead to a hot market in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities will continue to experience low transaction volumes [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June, the sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies showed a significant decline, with the top 10 companies experiencing a 26% drop in sales, while the second and third tiers saw declines of 13% and 18% respectively [2] - The report highlights that the sales decline is expected to narrow in 2025 due to improved housing quality and stability in new home prices in high-energy cities [2] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive pressure of high-value new homes on the second-hand market, emphasizing that the advantages of new homes stem from local government concessions on land prices and planning [3] - It notes that the second-hand housing market has seen a significant drop in transaction volume since April, with new residential prices in 70 cities declining by 0.22% month-on-month and 4.08% year-on-year as of May [3] Policy Outlook - The report suggests that there is a high likelihood of new supportive policies being introduced in the third quarter, especially in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where there is still room for relaxation of purchase restrictions [3] - Potential policy measures include easing of provident fund withdrawal policies and monetary policy support, which could stimulate short-term market recovery [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stocks with strong price elasticity, including Beike-W (02423, Buy), Jindi Group (600383, Increase), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), Poly Development (600048, Buy), and China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy) [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the steady growth of the decorative paper water-based ink market in China, driven by the increasing demand for decorative paper in the real estate and home furnishing sectors [2][6][10] - The production of decorative paper water-based ink in China reached 108,400 tons in 2023, indicating a significant contribution to the overall decorative paper industry [5][6] - From 2015 to 2023, the sales volume of decorative printing paper in China increased from 490,000 tons to 1,032,500 tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.76% [2][4] Group 2 - The recovery of downstream industries, particularly real estate and home furnishing, has been supported by various government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [6][10] - The demand for engineered wood products, such as particleboard and fiberboard, is expected to rise, further increasing the need for decorative paper and its associated water-based inks [7][10] - The trend towards personalized and aesthetically pleasing furniture is anticipated to drive the demand for high-end decorative paper, which will, in turn, boost the market for decorative paper water-based inks [6][10] Group 3 - The decorative paper water-based ink market is projected to experience continued growth due to the increasing urbanization and rising disposable income of residents in China [6][10] - The shift towards engineered wood products as a sustainable alternative to solid wood is expected to enhance the market potential for decorative paper and its inks [10][11] - The overall market for decorative paper water-based inks is likely to expand as the proportion of decorative paper used in engineered wood products increases [10][11]