Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 11.90 CNY, maintaining the rating [3][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profitability, with expectations for operational improvement and demand recovery in the future [2][3]. - The company has a strong position in the mid-to-high-end market for decorative paper, with significant advantages in product quality, cost control, and customer resources, indicating potential for market share growth and long-term growth prospects [2][3]. - The company has made positive progress in response to the EU anti-dumping investigation, with a reduction in the anti-dumping tax rate from 34.9% to 26.4%, which is expected to have a limited impact on sales in Europe [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.627 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.43%, and a net profit of 156 million CNY, down 48.47% year-on-year [1][3]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 12.99%, a decline of 5.66 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 2025 gross margin at 12.24%, down 4.96 percentage points year-on-year [3][9]. - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2025 was 9.57%, a decrease of 5.95 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.038 billion CNY, 4.360 billion CNY, and 4.753 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.16%, 7.95%, and 9.02% [9][11]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 425 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 9.44%, followed by growth of 13.40% and 13.45% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [9][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 29.81 CNY, while the current stock price is 24.68 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company reported a steady revenue growth in H1 2025, achieving 5.991 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 30.14%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13.80% to 474 million CNY [2][12]. - The company's diverse product offerings, including food and medical packaging materials, daily consumer products, and electrical and industrial paper products, have driven revenue growth. The domestic and international markets both showed positive growth [3][12]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with new projects, including a significant investment of 11 billion CNY in a bamboo pulp and paper integration project in Sichuan [4][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.991 billion CNY, with a 30.14% year-on-year growth. The net profit was 474 million CNY, down 13.80% year-on-year [2][12]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 13.71%, a decrease of 3.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.97%, down 4.07 percentage points year-on-year [11][12]. Product and Market Analysis - The food and medical packaging materials segment saw a production volume of 169,900 tons in H1 2025, with sales volume reaching 147,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.72% [3]. - The electrical and industrial paper products segment reported a sales volume of 3,600 tons, with a revenue growth of 14.63% [3]. - Domestic sales reached 5.315 billion CNY, growing by 31.59%, while international sales were 423 million CNY, up 15.40% [3]. Capacity Expansion and Future Outlook - The company has successfully launched its self-produced pulp projects in Guangxi and Hubei, with a total output of 103,000 tons of self-produced pulp and 72,800 tons of specialty paper by H1 2025 [4]. - The company plans to invest 11 billion CNY in a new bamboo pulp and paper integration project in Sichuan, aiming for an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of new paper materials [4][12]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.752 billion CNY, 15.446 billion CNY, and 18.167 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 1.096 billion CNY, 1.413 billion CNY, and 1.692 billion CNY [12][13].

工业包装产线全面投产，产销提升驱动收入增长：1H2025公司完成机制纸产量102.37万吨，销量98.72万吨，同比分别+76.3%/+74.4%，单吨均价为4175元，同比-1886元。2025年4月， 市场竞争加剧，产品降价，二季度毛利率环比下滑：1H2025公司毛利率为8.2%，同比-3.9pcts，其中1Q/2Q2025公司毛利率为8.8%/7.7%，分别同比-4.2/-3.6pcts，2Q毛利率环比-1. 根据卓创资讯数据，1Q/2Q2025纸杯原纸吨均价为6800/6489元，同比-300/-418元，2Q2025环比-311元，1Q/2Q2025阔叶浆单吨均价分别为4782/4284元，同比-402/-1383元，2Q20 1H2025公司期间费用率为4.8%，同比-0.1pcts，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为0.3%/1.1%/1.1%/2.2%，分别同比+0.1/-0.2/-0.5/+0.6pcts。公司财务费用率升高，主要原 下半年特纸行业有望触底回暖，维持"买入"评级：展望后市，一方面，7月以来热转印等纸种的价格出现一定幅度的回升，盈利能力有望环比改善；另一方面，公司目前在建的 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The pulp futures 09 contract closed at 5106 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. The port de - stocking speed is slow, the supply of the imported wood pulp market is relatively loose, and with the domestic new capacity coming into operation, it will fluctuate in a low - level range [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The previous settlement price of pulp futures 09 contract was 5072 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5106 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.67% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in Shandong was 5070 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of Chilean Arauco's Silver Star in Shandong was 5920 - 5950 yuan/ton. The net price of Uruguay's eucalyptus pulp Star was 500 US dollars/ton [7]. - **Supply Data**: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6%. In May, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22% year - on - year. In May, China's pulp imports were 3.02 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year. As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 3.11% month - on - month, only the inventory in Qingdao Port decreased [7]. - **Downstream Situation**: The overall market orders of downstream paper mills have not improved significantly, and the prices of finished paper are stable. The port de - stocking speed is slow, and the supply of the imported wood pulp market is relatively loose, along with the domestic new capacity coming into operation [7]. 2. Industry News - **New Capacity in the Living Paper Industry**: From January to June 2025, about 744,000 t/a of modern production capacity was newly put into operation in the industry, a slight increase compared to the same period in 2024 [8]. - **Special Paper Projects**: The 3.6 - million - ton special paper project of Xianhua with a total investment of 3.6 billion yuan is expected to make the company the largest special paper production base in northern China. The 45,000 - ton electronic carrier tape paper project of Xianhua with a total investment of 1 billion yuan has been completed and is in the commissioning stage [8]. 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report presents various graphs including those related to import pulp prices, futures prices, price spreads, inventory, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind,卓创资讯, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][25][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the steady growth of the decorative paper water-based ink market in China, driven by the increasing demand for decorative paper in the real estate and home furnishing sectors [2][6][10] - The production of decorative paper water-based ink in China reached 108,400 tons in 2023, indicating a significant contribution to the overall decorative paper industry [5][6] - From 2015 to 2023, the sales volume of decorative printing paper in China increased from 490,000 tons to 1,032,500 tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.76% [2][4] Group 2 - The recovery of downstream industries, particularly real estate and home furnishing, has been supported by various government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [6][10] - The demand for engineered wood products, such as particleboard and fiberboard, is expected to rise, further increasing the need for decorative paper and its associated water-based inks [7][10] - The trend towards personalized and aesthetically pleasing furniture is anticipated to drive the demand for high-end decorative paper, which will, in turn, boost the market for decorative paper water-based inks [6][10] Group 3 - The decorative paper water-based ink market is projected to experience continued growth due to the increasing urbanization and rising disposable income of residents in China [6][10] - The shift towards engineered wood products as a sustainable alternative to solid wood is expected to enhance the market potential for decorative paper and its inks [10][11] - The overall market for decorative paper water-based inks is likely to expand as the proportion of decorative paper used in engineered wood products increases [10][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company is focusing on its core business development while actively responding to challenges and enhancing operational management to improve quality and efficiency. Short-term performance is under pressure due to a weak industry environment and intense competition, but profitability is expected to improve as raw material prices stabilize [1][4] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 86%, with a total cash dividend of 400 million yuan in 2024, which continues to reward investors [1] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 850 million yuan, down 10.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 80 million yuan, down 45.1% year-on-year. The gross margin was 13.7%, a decrease of 6.5 percentage points [1] - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.77 billion yuan, a decline of 5.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 470 million yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year. The gross margin was 15.8%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points [1] - The company has shown resilience in operations despite adverse market conditions, with a focus on high-end decorative paper products and effective cost control [2] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - In 2024, the company improved its management of accounts receivable and inventory, resulting in a net cash flow from operating activities of 516 million yuan, an increase of 17.66% year-on-year, maintaining a healthy cash flow level [3] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 403 million yuan, 444 million yuan, and 503 million yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [5][16]. Core Views - The company is focusing on its core business development while actively responding to challenges and enhancing operational management to improve quality and efficiency. Short-term performance is under pressure due to a weak industry environment and intense competition, but profitability is expected to improve as raw material prices stabilize [1][2]. - The company has a high cash dividend payout ratio of 86%, amounting to 400 million yuan in total cash dividends for 2024, which continues to reward investors [1]. - The company has successfully launched a new production line for decorative paper with an annual capacity of 80,000 tons, contributing to steady capacity expansion and market share growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 850 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 80 million yuan, down 45.1% year-on-year. The gross margin was 13.7%, down 6.5 percentage points [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of 3.77 billion yuan, a decline of 5.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 470 million yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year. The gross margin is expected to be 15.8%, down 3.3 percentage points [1][4]. - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 516 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.66%, indicating strong cash flow performance [3]. Adjusted Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 403 million yuan, 444 million yuan, and 503 million yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to ongoing operational pressures [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the pulp and paper industry is experiencing a bottoming out of profitability, with costs stabilizing and paper prices showing slight recovery in Q1 2025 [1][2] - The report highlights that the overall pulp price is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation, with domestic demand remaining weak while international prices are experiencing increases due to maintenance shutdowns in overseas pulp mills [2][3] - The cultural paper segment is seeing a gradual recovery in profitability, with major players like Sun Paper benefiting from strategic raw material management and cost control [3][5] Group 2 - The white card paper prices are showing signs of stabilization, with a slight increase in Q1 2025 due to supply disruptions from major producers [4][5] - The special paper segment is witnessing an expansion of leading companies' market share, although prices are under pressure due to weak demand in certain categories [4][5] - The waste paper segment is experiencing price fluctuations, with overall profitability showing improvement, particularly for companies like Nine Dragons Paper [6][7] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the profitability of paper companies may continue to face pressure in Q2 2025 despite cost optimization efforts, with limited new capacity expected from leading firms [7] - Companies to watch include Sun Paper and Xianhe Co., which are expected to see improvements in profitability, along with others like Huawang Technology and Wuzhou Special Paper [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the paper industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is experiencing a bottoming cycle with insufficient upward momentum, leading industry leaders to focus on extending their supply chains and enhancing differentiated competitive advantages [12] - The industry is expected to continue facing supply-demand pressures in 2025, with a sustained bottoming of profit cycles as leading companies innovate and expand their scale and differentiation advantages [12] - Major companies are actively expanding their overseas market presence to absorb production capacity [12] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper Sector - Cost improvements and a slight recovery in paper prices are leading to profit recovery, with Q4 2024 pulp prices hitting a bottom and costs stabilizing [3] - In Q1 2025, low-cost pulp gradually entered inventory, and paper prices saw a slight increase, with companies expected to maintain low costs and moderate profit improvements [3][18] - The domestic pulp market is experiencing price fluctuations, with expectations of continued low-level oscillations in Q2 2025 [19] Cultural Paper - Profitability is gradually recovering, with leading companies performing well despite market challenges [4] - Average prices for double glue paper and copper plate paper in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 were 5228 and 5435 CNY/ton respectively, showing year-on-year declines but some recovery in Q1 2025 [22] - Companies like Sun Paper are leveraging raw material strategies and cost control to improve profits [22] White Card Paper - Prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with a slight improvement in profitability [23] - The average price for white card paper increased from 4195 CNY/ton in Q4 2024 to 4307 CNY/ton in Q1 2025, benefiting from supply disruptions [23] - Companies are expected to face increased supply pressures in 2025 due to new capacities coming online [23] Specialty Paper - Leading companies are expanding their advantages and market shares [24] - Prices for specialty paper categories are expected to decline due to short-term supply-demand pressures, but some categories are showing signs of recovery [24] - Companies like Xianhe and Wuzhou are expected to benefit from increased production capacity [24] Waste Paper Sector - Prices are fluctuating, with a recovery in profitability observed [26] - The average price for waste paper in Q4 2024 was 1530 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year increase, while boxboard and corrugated paper prices also saw slight improvements [26] - The overall profitability of waste paper companies is expected to remain under pressure in Q2 2025 despite cost optimizations [26] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with integrated pulp and paper operations and improving profitability, such as Sun Paper and Xianhe, as well as those recovering profitability like Huawang Technology and Wuzhou Specialty Paper [8]

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