前几天跟朋友小王聊天，他说已经看中了一套120平米的三居室，开发商报价1380万，他只愿意出1200万。僵持了两个多月，谁也不肯让步。小王说："我 就不信他们能一直扛着不降价。"开发商的销售人员则回应："我们项目品质摆在这里，价格有支撑，降价是不可能的。" 这种买卖双方的"对峙"场景，如今在全国各地楼市中越来越常见。根据房地产研究机构发布的最新数据，2025年上半年全国商品房销售面积同比下降 18.7%，创下近5年来最大跌幅。与此同时，一线城市新建商品住宅价格指数仅下跌2.3%，远低于市场预期的5?%。这种销量大跌但价格相对坚挺的现象， 反映出当前房地产市场的一种微妙平衡：开发商不愿大幅降价，购房者也不急于出手。 那么，如果这种状态长期持续下去，双方都坚持己见，互不让步，最终会出现什么结果？这个问题值得我们深入探讨。 资金链压力与品牌形象的平衡。许多开发商确实面临着巨大的资金链压力，据统计，2025年上半年，房地产行业平均资产负债率高达78.3%，较2023年末 上升了3.5个百分点。但大幅降价也会带来一系列问题：一是损害品牌形象和产品价值感；二是可能引发已购房业主的维权；三是一旦形成降价预期，可 能导致更多 ...

付鹏强调，当前房地产市场的核心矛盾在于其属性已从过去的投资甚至投机主导，彻底回归至居住主 导。他认为，这种根本性转变意味着市场将呈现长期分化格局。以上海为例，外环放开限购后反而形成 抛盘压力，而符合新建筑标准、具备品质优势的新盘仍受青睐。 他还表示，在部分县城，改善型需求支撑下新建品质楼盘价格可达每平米8000元，但同区域老旧住房价 格仅1500-2000元。"我去好多小县城，现在调研好多小县城里边现在的情况是一个小区新建的能卖 8000，但他马路对面就1500、2000。现在大家在县城里待的，其实多多少少应该是这个县城里比较有钱 的了，大家不愿意去省城或者去市里了，因为这是你自己土生土长的老家，年龄又大了，所以这些人其 实有改善住的需求的，我也想住好房子。那么县城里的这些人自然有这个改善需求。" 他认为，这种分化表明，即使回归"住"的属性，市场对高品质居住的需求依然坚实，但大量持有投资属 性老旧房产的家庭，其资产负债表仍面临压力，这会持续影响其消费能力和预期。 凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛 以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is undergoing a significant adjustment, shifting from an investment-driven model to one focused on meeting residential needs, as emphasized by various central media outlets [3][5][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - The proportion of real estate in urban residents' total assets is 68%, indicating its importance in family asset allocation [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, and sales revenue fell by 3.2% [2]. - The real estate sector is no longer seen as a primary engine for economic growth but is transitioning to serve public needs [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is experiencing a cooling off, with residential land supply in 300 cities down by 15.7% year-on-year and land transfer income down by 18.3% [8]. - New housing starts have decreased by 22.5% year-on-year, indicating a cautious approach from developers [8]. - Population changes are affecting housing demand, with a total population of 1.402 billion in 2025, a decrease of 2.08 million from 2024, and a natural growth rate of -1.48‰ [8]. Group 3: Future Market Predictions - The real estate market is expected to see increased regional differentiation, with core cities likely to experience stable or moderate price increases, while many third and fourth-tier cities may face price declines of 10% to 20% [10]. - The demand for small to medium-sized homes (90-120 square meters) is strong, accounting for 72% of transactions in the first half of 2025, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2024 [10]. - The financial environment is expected to remain cautious, with stable mortgage rates but increased difficulty in obtaining loans based on individual qualifications and property value potential [10]. Group 4: Buyer Segmentation - First-time homebuyers with stable jobs in first-tier cities are in a favorable position to enter the market, as significant price drops are unlikely [12]. - Current conditions are advantageous for those looking to upgrade their homes, particularly in the second-hand market where listings have increased by 22% year-on-year [12]. - Investment buyers may find it challenging to achieve returns, with rental yields in first-tier cities projected at only 1.8% to 5%, lower than bank deposit rates [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing unprecedented volatility, with contrasting opinions on whether it has hit bottom or still has room for decline [1][4] Group 1: Predictions and Insights - Huang Qifan, an economist, predicted years ago that new home transaction volumes in China would decline over the next decade, eventually falling below 1 billion square meters [4] - By 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing has dropped to 970 million square meters, a significant year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [4] - The first half of 2025 shows new commercial housing sales at 458 million square meters, down 3.5% year-on-year, confirming Huang's predictions [4] Group 2: Market Challenges - The real estate sector faces two core issues: high leverage with debt ratios exceeding 80%, far above the internationally recognized healthy level of 50%, posing systemic financial risks [4][5] - There is a severe oversupply in the market, with over 4 million foreclosed properties in 2023, accounting for 35.81% of that year's commercial housing sales [5] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Huang predicts that over the next decade, average housing price growth will be lower than GDP growth, leading to a relatively stable market without significant fluctuations [5] - The national second-hand housing price index showed a month-on-month decline of 0.75% and a year-on-year drop of 7.26% as of June 2025, although the decline is not as severe as previously feared due to government support measures [8] Group 4: Government Policies - The government is implementing measures to stabilize the market, including a significant increase in funding from 300 billion yuan to 3 trillion yuan for purchasing inventory properties to convert into affordable housing [10] - The government plans to acquire inventory properties at 60-70% of their market value to meet the rental needs of approximately 200 million urban residents [10] Group 5: Recommendations for Different Buyer Segments - For first-time homebuyers, it is a good time to purchase due to lower loan rates and subsidies, but careful financial planning is essential [11] - Improvement buyers are advised to remain patient and wait for the best timing as market prices are still adjusting [12] - Investors should be cautious as the era of easy profits in real estate is over, with expected average price growth below GDP growth in the next decade [13] Group 6: Return to Housing Fundamentals - Huang's insights emphasize the importance of understanding macroeconomic fundamentals such as population structure, urbanization, and supply-demand relationships [14] - It is crucial for the public to shift from an investment mindset to a rational approach based on actual housing needs, as homes should primarily serve as places to live rather than investment vehicles [15]

Core Viewpoint - Huang Qifan's predictions regarding the real estate market have proven accurate, and he expresses strong confidence in his forecasts for the upcoming year [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - Huang Qifan predicted that China's new housing transaction volume would decline from 1.7 billion square meters to below 1 billion square meters, which many initially dismissed [3] - The new housing transaction volume peaked at 1.8 billion square meters in 2021 but is expected to drop to 970 million square meters in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 12.9% [5] - Key indicators show significant changes from 2020 to 2024, including a drop in total real estate construction from 2.2 billion square meters to over 600 million square meters, a decline of approximately 65% [7] Group 2: Structural Changes in the Real Estate Market - The number of marriage registrations in 2024 was 6.106 million pairs, a decrease of 20.5% from the previous year, leading to reduced housing demand [7] - Real estate prices have fallen by 40-50% compared to the baseline period, and real estate financing has decreased by about 50% [7] - The adjustment in the real estate market is characterized as a structural change rather than a short-term fluctuation [7] Group 3: Future Outlook and Government Actions - Huang Qifan predicts that average housing price growth over the next decade will be lower than GDP growth, indicating a stable market without significant price increases or decreases [7] - The government is expected to implement a large-scale stockpiling plan, potentially reaching 10 trillion yuan, to convert inventory housing into state-owned rental properties [7] - The housing price-to-income ratio is projected to decrease from the current 23-30 years to a target of 8-10 years [9] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Consumer Guidance - The real estate sector, once a pillar of the Chinese economy, is shifting back to its fundamental role of providing housing rather than serving as a quick appreciation tool [11] - Consumers are advised to approach the market with caution, with first-time buyers encouraged to purchase when policies are favorable, while those looking to upgrade should wait for a more favorable market [9][13] - The industry is expected to undergo significant adjustments, with the number of real estate companies potentially reducing from over 90,000 to fewer than 20,000 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation in 2025, shifting from strict regulation to active stimulation, driven by long-term strategic planning from the central government [1] Group 1: Supply-Side Structural Reforms - The government is issuing special bonds to acquire existing properties and convert them into affordable housing, with an expected scale exceeding 500 billion yuan, effectively mitigating market risks and improving housing supply structure [1] - New residential projects are mandated to meet higher quality standards, including a minimum energy efficiency rate of 65% and an 80% coverage of smart home systems, enhancing residents' living experience [1] Group 2: Financial Leverage Relaxation - The down payment ratio for first-time homebuyers has been significantly reduced to 15% nationwide, with cities like Xi'an and Nanjing leading the implementation, thus lowering the barriers to homeownership [2] - Mortgage rates are projected to drop to around 2.5% by the end of 2025, potentially reducing monthly payments by approximately 500 yuan and saving over 180,000 yuan in total interest for a 1 million yuan, 30-year loan [2] Group 3: Tax and Fee Reductions - In cities like Liuyang, homebuyers can enjoy a 60% tax rebate on deed tax from August to November, allowing savings of up to 24,000 yuan on a 1 million yuan property [4] - The personal income tax refund policy continues to support taxpayers who sell their homes and repurchase within a year [5] - Transaction costs have been streamlined, with deed tax for second homes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen reduced to 1% [6] Group 4: Targeted Support for Specific Groups - Families with multiple children are receiving enhanced support, such as a 60,000 yuan subsidy for two-child families and a 120,000 yuan subsidy for three-child families in cities like Wuhan [7] - Young talents under 35 with a bachelor's degree or higher can access up to 1.2 million yuan in housing fund loans without account balance restrictions in certain cities [7] Group 5: Strategies for Different Buyer Groups - First-time buyers are encouraged to take advantage of low down payments and interest rates, focusing on high-value products like shared ownership homes and small units in core areas [8] - Improving families can utilize tax refund policies for "selling old for new" strategies, prioritizing developers' "old-for-new" plans and quality communities equipped for aging [10] - Investors are advised to avoid speculative investments in third and fourth-tier cities and instead focus on quality assets in core urban areas, commercial real estate, and REITs with positive cash flow [10] Conclusion - The scale and intensity of the policy measures in 2025 are unprecedented in the last decade, marking a departure from the "universal price increase era" and a return to the residential nature of real estate [11]