房地产市场去库存

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地产及物管行业周报:一季末房贷余额降幅收窄,保利完成定向可转债发行-20250602
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-06-02 04:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5][6]. Core Insights - The real estate market is still in a destocking trend, with new housing market dynamics showing signs of stabilization. The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable housing prices for both the real estate sector and consumer confidence [5][6]. - The report highlights that the central government is expected to increase policy support for the real estate sector, including measures such as mortgage rate cuts and promoting the sale of quality housing [5][6]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of May 24-30, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.76 million square meters, a decrease of 3% week-on-week. First and second-tier cities saw a 5% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 34% increase [5][6]. - In May, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 10.03 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. First and second-tier cities saw a 9% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities recorded a 7% increase [9][10]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of May 24-30, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.27 million square meters, a decrease of 1% week-on-week. Cumulatively, transactions in May were down 5% year-on-year [14][5]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of May 24-30, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.07 million square meters of new housing, with a corresponding transaction volume of 1.15 million square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 1.07. The available residential area in these cities was 89.27 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.1% [23][5]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of Q1 2025, the balance of real estate loans was 53.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.04%. The report also outlines various local government initiatives aimed at stabilizing the housing market, including adjustments to housing loan policies and tax rates [33][34].