房地产行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 上海新政跟进，强化对行业进入中长期修 复通道的信心 核心观点 ⚫ 我们不同于市场的见解： 1、此轮北京、上海新政节奏符合预期，力度较为克制，有助于区域库存去化。我 们认为，这一系列"因城施策"强化了对行业中长期修复通道的信心，未来不需要 过度猜测短期政策节奏，一方面在于在关键时刻，尤其是在"止跌回稳"压力加剧 的情况下，会有更多、更全面的政策出台以提振市场，另一方面在于房地产主体风 险亦在明显降低，新的地块的利润率回到了合理水平，通过时间的累积，还能持续 经营的开发商的资产负债表会得到修复。 2、地产股的修复并不完全依赖于政策具体的出台时间，无风险利率的下行和行业 风险评价降低是推动地产股修复的主要原因。实际上房地产行业进入下行阶段以 后，社会的中高息回报资产明显减少，自然会带动无风险利率下行。前几年地产股 价明显下行，是因为分子端的影响超过了分母端；目前房地产进入了新的筑底阶 段，以及无风险利率进入低利率区间，分母端的影响超过了分子端，从而将带来未 来股价的回升。而在这个过程中，政策的出台节奏快一点慢一点，强一点弱一点， 都不实质性改变整件事情的基本预期。所以，我们认为只 ...

中泰证券发布研报称，国家统计局公布数据显示，2025年1-7月，商品房销售面积为51560万平方米，商 品房销售额为49566亿元。全国房地产开发投资累计完成53580亿元。2025年1-7月房地产行业各项销售 数据虽仍处低位，但"止跌回稳"政策基调延续，核心城市购房政策持续优化，市场信心仍处修复期，预 计随着稳销售、稳资金等政策持续落地，行业有望迎来底部企稳。该行继续看好房地产板块的中长期配 置机会，建议关注布局一二线城市、基本面稳健、安全边际较高的房企。 到位资金同比仍降，融资改善空间可期 2025年1-7月房地产开发企业到位资金同比-7.5%，较1-6月的增速下降1.3pct。分项来看，国内贷款、利 用外资、自筹资金、定金及预收款及个人按揭贷款增速分别为0.1%、3.2%、-8.5%、-9.9%及-9.3%。当 前行业整体融资渠道仍偏紧，但随着中央经济工作会议提出"积极稳妥化解房地产风险，一视同仁满足 不同所有制房地产企业的合理融资需求"，同时"项目融资白名单"信贷额度持续加码，叠加销售端回暖 带来的资金回流，房企到位资金情况预计将逐步改善。 投资持续承压，新开工仍弱，竣工节奏略趋缓 2025年，1-7 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [4][8]. Core Insights - The real estate industry investment has weakened in April, with construction starts and completions remaining at low levels. Sales are expected to experience a seasonal decline, indicating a bottoming phase that requires ongoing monitoring of future trends. A series of financial policies continue to support the industry's recovery, with domestic loan funding turning positive year-on-year from January to April. Policies such as interest rate cuts and financing support are expected to improve the industry's financial situation [1][2][5]. Summary by Sections Investment - The investment sector has seen a more significant decline, with real estate development investment down by 10.3% year-on-year from January to April 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to previous values. The investment growth rate for April alone fell by 11.5%, widening the decline by 1.2 percentage points from March. The industry continues to deplete inventory, and factors such as sales and funding challenges hinder the replenishment of inventory, leading to a weak investment outlook in the short term [2]. Land - Core cities remain the primary investment areas, with land transactions in 100 cities showing a recovery. From January to April, the total transaction price of land in these cities increased by 8.8% year-on-year, while the planned construction area decreased by 10.1%. In April, both the planned construction area and total transaction price saw a month-on-month increase, with a land transaction premium rate of 9.7%, maintaining a relatively high level for the year [2]. Construction Starts and Completions - New construction starts and completions remain low. From January to April, the area of new construction started decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, with a slight narrowing of the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to Q1. In April, the monthly decline was 22.3%, widening by 3.5 percentage points from the previous month. The completion sector is expected to remain under pressure due to declining sales and new construction, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% from January to April and a significant drop of 28.2% in April alone [2]. Sales - The sales sector experienced a seasonal decline month-on-month, with year-on-year changes of -2.8% in sales area and -3.2% in sales amount from January to April. The sales price also saw a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with a more pronounced drop of 4.3% in April compared to the same month last year [3]. Funding - Under policy support, the growth rate of domestic loans has turned positive. From January to April, the sources of funds saw a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, with domestic loans increasing by 0.8%, while self-raised funds, deposits, and personal mortgages saw declines of 6.8%, 3.0%, and 8.5% respectively [7].