Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a focus on the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for now or conduct range - bound operations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,380 yuan/ton, with a 0 change; the 11 - 12 - month contract spread is - 230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,140 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars/ton; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai nickel is 127,005 lots, up 5,694 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 38,124 lots, down 1,705 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 250,854 tons, down 24 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 34,419 tons (weekly), up 1,300 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,252 tons, down 24 tons [3]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 26,881 tons, down 72 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with a 0 change; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with a 0 change [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, with a 0 change; the basis of the NI main contract is 770 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 202.16 US dollars/ton, up 4.13 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,528.84 million tons (weekly), up 27.91 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, down 4.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with a 0 change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.17 million metal tons, down 0.03 million metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 108.53 million tons, up 21.12 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.27 million tons, up 2.48 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.36 million tons, up 0.02 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24th to 27th [3]. - The Learning Times published an article suggesting to improve the linkage between fiscal discount interest and financial credit, promote the matching of supervision and industrial policies, and build a long - term mechanism to expand consumption [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Macroeconomically, there will be China - US economic and trade consultations. Fundamentally, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing costs, and the premium of domestic trade nickel ore is stable [3]. - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is at a high level, but the grade is decreasing, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year [3]. - At the smelting end, new electrolytic nickel projects are slowly put into production. Due to low nickel prices and cost pressure, some smelters cut production at a loss, so the output of refined nickel is expected to remain stable at a high level [3]. - On the demand side, stainless steel mills have a weak peak - season performance, with a small increase in production; new - energy vehicle production and sales continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited [3]. - Domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium is slightly increased; the LME inventory overseas also shows an upward trend [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests to temporarily observe or take a small - long position. The macro - situation involves China - US economic and trade consultations. Fundamentally, the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia may tighten the tin ore supply. There are shortages of raw materials in the smelting area, and the demand side remains cautious. The LME inventory slightly increases, and the spot premium slightly rebounds [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 281,230 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the closing price of the November - December contract of Shanghai Tin is down 420 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 35,400 dollars/ton, down 75 dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 14,931 lots, down 2,399 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,719 lots, down 326 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 2,745 tons, up 10 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 5,691 tons, down 188 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 5,470 tons, down 130 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 280,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 280,380 yuan/ton, down 1,040 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 430 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 55 dollars/ton, up 111 dollars [3]. 3.3上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, with no change. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,300 yuan/ton. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A soldering tin bar in Gejiu is 181,150 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.1093 million tons, up 144,800 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Politburo member and Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for China - US economic and trade consultations from October 24 to 27. - Learning Times suggests improving the linkage between fiscal discount and financial credit, promoting the matching of supervision and industrial policies, and building a long - term mechanism for expanding consumption [3]. 3.7观点总结 - Macro: China - US economic and trade consultations are scheduled. - Fundamental: The closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia may tighten supply; tin ore imports decreased in September, with production in some regions not meeting expectations. - Smelting: Raw material shortages are severe in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure. - Demand: Most downstream and end - users are waiting and only making small - scale purchases, with low restocking enthusiasm. The spot premium is around 400 yuan/ton, LME inventory slightly increases, and the spot premium slightly rebounds. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - long position [3]. 3.8重点关注 There is no news to focus on today [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and five other government departments have jointly issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, aiming to stimulate and expand consumer spending in the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Key Measures - The guidelines propose 19 key measures across six areas: enhancing consumer capacity, expanding financial supply in consumption, tapping into residents' consumption potential, improving consumption supply efficiency, optimizing the consumption environment, and providing policy support [1]. - Emphasis is placed on solidifying the macroeconomic financial foundation, supporting employment and income growth, optimizing insurance coverage, and actively cultivating consumer demand [1]. Group 2: Financial Support Focus - The guidelines highlight the need to focus financial support on key consumption areas, innovate financial products tailored to consumption scenarios, and continuously improve the quality and efficiency of financial services in the consumption sector [1]. - There is a call to optimize payment services in consumption and strengthen the construction of a credit system in the consumption field, along with enhancing the protection of financial consumer rights [1]. Group 3: Implementation and Monitoring - The People's Bank of China will work with relevant departments to accelerate the implementation of these policies, strengthen monitoring, and guide financial institutions to increase support for the consumption sector [2].

Core Viewpoint - The primary focus is on enhancing consumer confidence and optimizing the consumption environment to transform China into a major consumer economy, supported by government policies and actions aimed at boosting domestic demand [1][3]. Group 1: Optimizing the Consumption Environment - Improving the consumption environment is crucial for enhancing consumer confidence and willingness to spend, which directly impacts economic growth and stability [4][6]. - Key strategies include strengthening consumer rights protection, enhancing regulatory enforcement, and creating a fair and safe consumption environment [5][6]. - The establishment of a long-term mechanism for consumption requires foundational systems for quality standards, credit constraints, and consumer rights protection [5][21]. Group 2: Addressing Consumer Pain Points - Current consumer pain points include high costs of rights protection, particularly in areas like cross-border e-commerce and pre-paid consumption, which need to be addressed to improve consumer experience [5][9]. - Issues such as counterfeit goods, inadequate after-sales service, and lack of transparency in product information remain prevalent, necessitating a focus on optimizing the consumption environment [5][9]. Group 3: Ensuring Fair Competition - The consumption market faces challenges such as unfair competition and market saturation, which can be mitigated by enhancing regulatory oversight and ensuring equal competition among market participants [6][9]. - Optimizing the consumption environment will encourage businesses to prioritize product and service quality, thereby improving the overall supply structure [6][9]. Group 4: Supporting Measures for Consumption Environment Improvement - Continuous improvement of the consumption environment requires the enhancement of supporting measures, including infrastructure, financial payment methods, and statistical monitoring [11][12]. - Development of urban and rural consumption infrastructure, leveraging new technologies like big data and AI, is essential for creating modern commercial spaces [11][12]. - Strengthening financial services and payment systems to cater to diverse consumer groups will enhance the overall consumer experience [12][13]. Group 5: Policy Coordination for Consumption Promotion - Coordinated policies across finance, taxation, and investment are necessary to effectively stimulate consumption and create a supportive policy framework [13][20]. - Initiatives such as fiscal subsidies and loan interest discounts can be employed to expand consumer demand [13][20]. - Enhancing the statistical monitoring system for consumption will help in understanding consumer behavior and improving policy effectiveness [13][20].