中信证券认为，6月5日中美元首通话，双方同意继续落实好日内瓦共识，市场风险偏好回暖窗口 延续。鉴于选举需要，特朗普在今年下半年虽难以放弃关键主张，但也难以极端行事。着眼6-7月 份，预计特朗普政策重心仍在中美之外的其他事项；展望8月，随着对华关税豁免到期、特朗普 三大短期优先事项或已有初步效果、以及美国囤货高峰期逐渐结束，届时是观察中美博弈走向的 下一关键窗口期。 1．中美两国元首通话：校正中美关系这艘大船航向 6月5日晚，国家主席习近平应约同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平表示，中国人一向言必行、行 必果，既然达成了共识，双方都应遵守。日内瓦会谈之后，中方严肃认真执行了协议。美方应实 事求是看待取得的进展，撤销对中国实施的消极举措。双方应增进外交、经贸、军队、执法等各 领域交流，增进共识、减少误解、加强合作。特朗普表示十分尊重习近平主席，美中关系十分重 要。美方乐见中国经济保持强劲增长。两国日内瓦经贸会谈很成功，达成了好的协议。美方愿同 中方共同努力落实协议。 【 机构观点综评 】国泰海通证券策略首席分析师方奕表示，中国股市"转型牛"的格局越来越清 晰，战略看多2025。浙商证券覃汉认为，6月流动性有望维持均衡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty caused by "reciprocal tariffs" is leading international asset management institutions to adopt a cautious stance towards sensitive assets, while seeking more stable and attractive investments in other regions like Europe and emerging markets to mitigate the impact of ongoing tariff policy fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is currently in a consolidation phase, with firms like Schroders recommending a gradual reduction in long positions on U.S. financial stocks due to a flatter yield curve [2]. - Allianz Investment suggests a cautious approach to U.S. equities, citing increased uncertainty from tariffs, rising recession risks, and weakening economic growth and inflation outlooks [2]. - Fidelity International notes that the U.S. economy shows signs of weakness, with indicators such as small business metrics and consumer confidence reflecting this trend [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - Fidelity International highlights significant volatility in the U.S. fixed income market, with the MOVE index nearing pandemic-era highs, enhancing the relative attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries [4]. - The current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is around 4%, while the dividend yield of S&P 500 constituents is approximately 1.4%, making Treasuries a favorable investment option [4]. - Allianz Investment maintains a selective investment strategy in fixed income, expressing caution about the overall outlook for U.S. Treasuries while recognizing potential benefits for European local bonds due to U.S. market instability [5]. Group 3: Global Investment Opportunities - Asset management firms are expanding their investment focus globally, with Fidelity International identifying resilient local demand-driven stocks and emerging market local currency bonds as attractive options [6]. - Schroders advocates for a diversified global investment strategy, shifting focus from U.S. markets to European markets and emerging market equities, while also emphasizing the importance of gold as a strategic diversification tool [8]. - Loomis Sayles expresses optimism for global equities for the remainder of the year, favoring value stocks and small-cap stocks over growth and large-cap stocks, while increasing allocation to Europe and China [7].