1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There are limited expectations for monetary policy easing, and the flattening of the yield curve supports long - term interest rates [2] - The overall capital situation is stable, and bond supply does not exert significant pressure on the market [2] - Last week, Treasury bond futures contracts across all tenors generally closed lower, with long - term varieties like 30 - year Treasury bond futures experiencing larger declines, reflecting market concerns about long - term interest rates [2] - It is recommended to pay attention to the issuance of interest - rate bonds and central bank operation signals, conduct band - trading, and control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Yields - The data shows the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [3] 3.2 Funding Rates - The trends of the weighted average rate of pledged repo by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repo rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are presented [3] 3.3 Treasury Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [4][5] 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are presented [7] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Trading Volume - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [8] 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Basis of Current - Quarter Contracts - The basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures current - quarter contracts are presented from different time periods [9][10][11][12] 3.7 Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Delivery Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are shown from different time periods [13][15][16] 3.8 Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/08 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are presented [17][18]

Core Viewpoints - The Chinese stock market is increasingly showing a "transformation bull" pattern, with a strategic outlook favoring 2025 [1][5] - The liquidity in June is expected to remain balanced and abundant, with a flat yield curve anticipated to persist for a longer duration [21] Focused Commentary - The recent phone call between the leaders of China and the U.S. has helped to ease bilateral relations, particularly in trade and technology sectors, which is expected to improve market sentiment [3][4] - Historical data indicates that after such calls, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks typically perform positively, with significant gains observed in Hong Kong stocks within a month following the communication [3] Equity Market Insights - The "transformation bull" market in China is characterized by reduced marginal impacts from valuation contractions and a systematic decrease in risk perception, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing asset prices and boosting demand [5] - The market sentiment is expected to improve further due to the continuation of U.S.-China dialogue and the focus on other policy matters by the U.S. administration [6] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to rebound in 2025, with particular emphasis on innovative drugs and AI healthcare as key investment areas [13] - The demand for electricity coal is expected to strengthen, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices, with major coal companies showing attractive dividend yields and low valuations [14] - Concerns over subsidy reductions may negatively impact the home appliance sector, while the market remains optimistic about structural opportunities in technology and resource sectors [16] Macro and Fixed Income - The yield curve is expected to remain flat, with the central bank potentially resuming government bond purchases in the second half of the year [21] - There is an expectation of further comprehensive interest rate cuts as macroeconomic policies remain supportive [22] - The U.S. job market shows resilience, which may delay interest rate cuts, impacting global economic conditions [23] Asset Allocation - The market is entering a new "volatility" cycle, with a focus on low-volatility dividends, technology autonomy, and sectors like military and pharmaceuticals for hedging [25]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty caused by "reciprocal tariffs" is leading international asset management institutions to adopt a cautious stance towards sensitive assets, while seeking more stable and attractive investments in other regions like Europe and emerging markets to mitigate the impact of ongoing tariff policy fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is currently in a consolidation phase, with firms like Schroders recommending a gradual reduction in long positions on U.S. financial stocks due to a flatter yield curve [2]. - Allianz Investment suggests a cautious approach to U.S. equities, citing increased uncertainty from tariffs, rising recession risks, and weakening economic growth and inflation outlooks [2]. - Fidelity International notes that the U.S. economy shows signs of weakness, with indicators such as small business metrics and consumer confidence reflecting this trend [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - Fidelity International highlights significant volatility in the U.S. fixed income market, with the MOVE index nearing pandemic-era highs, enhancing the relative attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries [4]. - The current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is around 4%, while the dividend yield of S&P 500 constituents is approximately 1.4%, making Treasuries a favorable investment option [4]. - Allianz Investment maintains a selective investment strategy in fixed income, expressing caution about the overall outlook for U.S. Treasuries while recognizing potential benefits for European local bonds due to U.S. market instability [5]. Group 3: Global Investment Opportunities - Asset management firms are expanding their investment focus globally, with Fidelity International identifying resilient local demand-driven stocks and emerging market local currency bonds as attractive options [6]. - Schroders advocates for a diversified global investment strategy, shifting focus from U.S. markets to European markets and emerging market equities, while also emphasizing the importance of gold as a strategic diversification tool [8]. - Loomis Sayles expresses optimism for global equities for the remainder of the year, favoring value stocks and small-cap stocks over growth and large-cap stocks, while increasing allocation to Europe and China [7].