Liquidity Overview - In the first week of December (1-5), the liquidity remained stable with a net withdrawal of CNY 2.5 trillion, including CNY 1 trillion from reverse repos[1] - Overnight interest rate R001 decreased from 1.43% to 1.36% during the week, while the 7-day rate R007 remained stable at 1.49%[1] Market Outlook - For the week of December 8-12, liquidity is expected to remain stable, with R001 likely hovering around 1.36%[2] - The upcoming reverse repo maturity of CNY 663.8 billion is at a relatively low level compared to the median of CNY 1.0327 trillion for 2025[2] Government Bonds - The net payment for government bonds from December 8-12 is projected to be -CNY 452 billion, primarily due to CNY 2.235 trillion in bonds being deferred to the following week[5] - The issuance of a 3-month discount treasury bond is anticipated, with an estimated issuance size of CNY 600 billion, which may slightly increase the net payment to CNY 148 billion[2] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.64%, an increase of 1.2 basis points from the previous week[6] - The total maturity of certificates of deposit for December 8-12 is expected to be CNY 10.614 trillion, significantly higher than the previous week's CNY 4.858 trillion[6] Bill Market - As of December 5, the 1-month bill rate decreased by 39 basis points to 0.11%, while the 3-month and 6-month rates increased by 5 and 8 basis points to 0.42% and 0.81%, respectively[4] - Major banks turned to net buying of CNY 8.9 billion in bills during the period from December 1-4, reversing a net selling of CNY 52.7 billion in the previous week[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There are limited expectations for monetary policy easing, and the flattening of the yield curve supports long - term interest rates [2] - The overall capital situation is stable, and bond supply does not exert significant pressure on the market [2] - Last week, Treasury bond futures contracts across all tenors generally closed lower, with long - term varieties like 30 - year Treasury bond futures experiencing larger declines, reflecting market concerns about long - term interest rates [2] - It is recommended to pay attention to the issuance of interest - rate bonds and central bank operation signals, conduct band - trading, and control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Yields - The data shows the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [3] 3.2 Funding Rates - The trends of the weighted average rate of pledged repo by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repo rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are presented [3] 3.3 Treasury Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [4][5] 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are presented [7] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Trading Volume - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [8] 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Basis of Current - Quarter Contracts - The basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures current - quarter contracts are presented from different time periods [9][10][11][12] 3.7 Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Delivery Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are shown from different time periods [13][15][16] 3.8 Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/08 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are presented [17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The funding situation has entered a comfortable state again in mid - early October, with limited disturbances and many supporting factors, and it is expected to remain stable next week [1][21] - Historically, funding disturbances in October are mainly concentrated in the second half, but important meetings have limited direct impact on the funding situation. This year, the funding situation is expected to maintain a seasonal stable state [20][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Next Week's Funding Still Expected to Be Stable - In mid - early October, the funding situation entered a comfortable state, with factors like holiday cash withdrawal funds flowing back, fiscal expenditures in place, and significant net long - term liquidity injection from the central bank [1][11] - Historically, funding disturbances in October are mainly in the second half due to tax payments and cross - month pressures. Important meetings in October in recent years have limited impact on the funding situation [17][20] - This year, the funding situation is expected to be seasonally stable. Next week's disturbances are limited, mainly government bond issuances on Monday and Friday, and relatively high certificate of deposit maturities on Tuesday and Friday. The central bank's precise control is expected to keep the funding situation loose [21] 3.2 Open Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale to Decline - From 10/13 - 10/17, the open - market net injection was - 6979 billion yuan. From 10/20 - 10/24, the open - market maturity is 7891 billion yuan [3][27] 3.3 Government Bonds: To Issue Over 800 Billion Yuan Next Week - From 10/13 - 10/17, government bonds were issued worth 3083 billion yuan. From 10/20 - 10/24, the planned issuance is 8802 billion yuan, with net treasury bond payment of 21.6 billion yuan and net local bond payment of 136.7 billion yuan [4][36] 3.4 Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in October 2025 will be about 1.43%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.42 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.33 pct [40] 3.5 Money Market: Large Banks' Lending Willingness Continues to Recover - Most funding interest rates declined. As of 10/17, compared with 10/10, DR001 rose 0.21 BP, DR007 fell 1.44 BP, R001 rose 3.83 BP, and R007 fell 1.65 BP [5] - The average net lending of the banking system's funds was 4.07 trillion yuan, with state - owned large banks' average net lending at 4.38 trillion yuan, and the overnight lending ratio at 97% [5] 3.6 Interbank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1 Primary Market: Issuance Scale to Increase - From 10/13 - 10/17, the total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 727.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of 23.4 billion yuan, an increase compared to 10/9 - 10/11 [6] - Next week (10/20 - 10/26), the maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit is 603 billion yuan, an increase of 109.4 billion yuan compared to this week [76] 3.6.2 Secondary Market: Yields to Rise Slightly - Yields of certificates of deposit of all maturities rose. Yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y AAA - rated certificates of deposit changed by 3, 3, 2, 1, 0 BP respectively [90]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 454.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on June 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan due to 830 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In May, the PBOC implemented a total of 700 billion yuan in buyout reverse repos, with 400 billion yuan for 3 months and 300 billion yuan for 6 months, leading to a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan for the month [1] - The PBOC's actions in May included a 0.1 percentage point interest rate cut and a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio reduction, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, indicating a continued supportive stance on liquidity [1] Group 2 - The PBOC is closely monitoring changes in overseas central bank policies and is utilizing various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2] - In June, there is no overall liquidity gap expected, but fluctuations may occur due to concentrated fiscal spending at the end of the month [2] - The net financing scale for government bonds in June is estimated at 963 billion yuan, a significant decrease from 1.49 trillion yuan in May, but fiscal spending is expected to provide some support to liquidity [3] Group 3 - As of June 3, the weighted average interest rate for 7-day pledged repos (DR007) was 1.5496%, down from 1.6645% on May 30 [4]