Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high levels of government debt in developed countries compared to emerging economies, suggesting that economic advancement may lead to increased debt burdens, potentially leading to a decline in national stability over time [1]. Group 1: Government Debt Levels - Developed countries like Japan and the US have government debt ratios exceeding 250% and 125% respectively, while emerging economies, such as ASEAN countries, maintain an average debt ratio around 30-40%, well below the 60% international safety threshold [1]. - The International Monetary Fund predicts that global public debt to GDP ratio will reach 95.1% and may rise to 99.6% by 2030 [12][14]. Group 2: Causes of Debt Growth - The rapid increase in government debt is attributed to various factors, including government objectives, responsibilities, and creditworthiness. For instance, Japan's debt has surged due to efforts to combat deflation following the 1990s real estate bubble burst [15]. - The US government debt ratio increased significantly during the 2008 financial crisis and again during the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting the need for fiscal stimulus amid economic downturns [18][20]. Group 3: Global Debt Comparisons - As of Q3 2024, the average macro leverage ratio for developing countries is 217%, while for developed countries it is 255% [12]. - The global debt, including government, household, and corporate liabilities, is projected to increase by $7.2 trillion, reaching $318.4 trillion [12]. Group 4: Economic Implications of Aging Populations - The article highlights that global aging populations are leading to increased fiscal pressures, as higher dependency ratios necessitate greater government spending on healthcare and pensions [10][44]. - Countries are facing a dual challenge of rising debt levels and aging populations, which could lead to economic stagnation similar to the "diseases of aging" seen in individuals [44]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The historical context of debt accumulation post-World War II shows that many nations initially had low debt levels, which have escalated due to various crises [12][44]. - The article suggests that the current global economic structure is facing challenges that may lead to prolonged periods of low growth and high debt, akin to the aging process in individuals [44].

Core Viewpoint - China should promote economic growth to stabilize debt, maintain policy rationality and coherence, and focus on the healthy management of private sector debt to ensure debt sustainability through various dimensions such as optimizing industrial structure, strengthening policy coordination, and enhancing debt management and risk prevention, thereby achieving robust economic development [3][16]. Group 1: U.S. Government Debt Rate Evolution - The U.S. government debt rate has evolved through two main phases since the 1940s, with a decline from the 1940s to the late 1970s due to post-war reconstruction and a subsequent rise starting in the 1980s influenced by economic conditions and political factors [5][6]. - The first phase saw a decrease in debt rate due to fiscal policies aimed at reducing military and infrastructure spending, leading to budget surpluses during certain years [5]. - The second phase, beginning with Reagan's administration, marked a continuous increase in debt rate driven by large tax cuts and increased government spending, exacerbated by economic downturns and political decisions [6][7]. Group 2: Japanese Government Debt Rate Characteristics - Japan's government debt rate has shown a long-term upward trend influenced by social security expenditures and economic bubbles, with significant fluctuations during economic crises [10][11]. - The debt rate increased sharply post-1990 due to the bursting of the economic bubble, leading to extensive fiscal measures to stabilize the economy, resulting in an average annual growth of about 7.8% in debt rate during the following years [12]. - The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated Japan's debt situation, pushing the debt rate to 259%, a significant increase of approximately 22.3 percentage points from 2019 [12][14]. Group 3: Implications for China - Economic growth is the core support for debt stability, as evidenced by the U.S. and Japan's historical experiences, suggesting that China should optimize its industrial structure and promote technological innovation to enhance GDP growth and ensure debt growth aligns with economic and fiscal revenue growth [16][17]. - Policy rationality and coherence are crucial, as political interference in fiscal decisions has led to rising debt in the U.S. and Japan; thus, China should focus on long-term strategic considerations in policy-making to avoid short-term debt risks [17][18]. - The health of the private sector is key to a virtuous debt cycle, and China should manage private sector debt effectively, encouraging reasonable leverage during economic upturns and enhancing financial services during downturns to stabilize the economy [18][19]. - Ensuring debt sustainability requires a multi-dimensional approach, including optimizing fiscal revenue structures, enhancing tax collection efficiency, and improving the sustainability of social security systems to balance debt utilization and risk prevention [18][19].