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全球关税:起源、演进历程及对财政的贡献|国际
清华金融评论· 2025-08-17 08:58
Core Viewpoint - Tariffs have re-emerged as a focal point in global economic and trade policies, particularly due to the rise of trade protectionism in the U.S. and the reevaluation of tariff policies by multiple countries amid geopolitical conflicts and fiscal pressures [5]. Summary by Sections Origin and Characteristics of Tariffs - Historically, tariffs originated as a form of transit fee for cross-border goods, primarily aimed at controlling the movement of people and goods, rather than for fiscal purposes [7]. - Tariffs have evolved from being a minor component of national fiscal systems to a crucial tool for economic intervention and revenue generation, especially since the 16th century with the rise of international trade [8][11]. Functions of Tariffs - Tariffs serve three main functions: revenue generation, protection of domestic industries, and economic regulation [11]. - The role of tariffs has shifted over time, influenced by economic development and prevailing economic ideologies, with their revenue-generating function becoming less significant in developed countries [12][19]. Evolution of Tariff Systems - The evolution of global tariff systems can be divided into five main stages from the 16th century to the present, reflecting changes in economic thought and development levels [13][14]. - **First Stage (16th-18th Century)**: Mercantilism dominated, with tariffs primarily used for revenue collection [15]. - **Second Stage (19th Century)**: The rise of free trade theories led to a reduction in tariffs in industrialized nations, while developing countries continued to rely on tariffs for revenue and protection [16]. - **Third Stage (Early 20th Century)**: Protectionism surged post-World War I, reinforcing tariffs as tools for revenue and industry protection [17]. - **Fourth Stage (Post-WWII to 2017)**: Establishment of a global free trade system led to a general decline in tariffs and a shift towards income and consumption taxes as primary revenue sources [18]. - **Fifth Stage (2018-Present)**: A resurgence of protectionism, particularly in the U.S., has seen tariffs used again for industry protection and economic regulation [19]. Dependency on Tariff Revenue - Global economies can be categorized based on their dependency on tariff revenue, with developed economies generally showing low dependency (below 3%), while some developing economies exhibit medium (3%-5%) or high dependency (over 5%) [20][23][26]. - Countries like Japan, Canada, and the U.S. have low tariff revenue contributions to their overall fiscal income, while nations like the Philippines show a high reliance on tariffs due to weaker tax systems [23][28].
深度解析马斯克怒建美国党背后的原因
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-10 00:43
Group 1 - The Biden administration has not yet established a new policy order or reshaped electoral politics, despite passing significant legislation like the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act [1][10] - The concept of "post-neoliberalism" indicates the difficulty in achieving a new consensus, as both left and right coalitions are unprepared for the challenges posed by geopolitical, economic, and technological competition [1][2] - The shift from a Fordist economy dominated by large manufacturers to a "fractured" economy driven by intellectual property and financial rents has profound implications for corporate and investor behavior [3][4] Group 2 - Neoliberalism has provided ideological justification for the shift towards a fractured economy, with policy changes acting as key catalysts, such as the reduction of tariffs and the weakening of antitrust laws [5][6] - The hollowing out of manufacturing and the abandonment of capital-intensive industries have weakened the U.S.'s innovation capacity and economic standing, leading to internal tensions and a loss of technological leadership [6][10] - The current political landscape reflects a departure from traditional political projects, with both parties struggling to propose coherent policy agendas, resulting in a fragmented political environment [15][16] Group 3 - The environmental movement has shifted to a more prominent role in national industrial policy, yet it struggles to transcend neoliberal frameworks and mobilize a broad political project [22][23] - The rise of "woke" politics has polarized discussions, making it difficult to form a consensus around economic issues, as both progressives and conservatives cling to their respective narratives [24][25] - The lack of a unifying political project has led to a focus on individual self-fulfillment rather than collective governance, complicating the potential for a new post-neoliberal consensus [27][28]
地球和火星都容不下马斯克的“新和联胜”
虎嗅APP· 2025-07-08 00:34
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Elon Musk's recent political ambitions, including the establishment of a new political party, and critiques the underlying motivations and implications of such actions in the context of American politics and society [3][10]. Group 1: Musk's Political Aspirations - Musk's announcement of forming a new political party, referred to as the "American Party," is seen as a continuation of his political ambitions, which some view as a response to the perceived failures of existing political structures [10][12]. - The article argues that Musk's political ideals are not aligned with the majority of American voters, suggesting that his views are more representative of a niche group within Silicon Valley rather than the broader electorate [12][15]. Group 2: Ideological Underpinnings - The article highlights that Musk and other Silicon Valley figures, such as Peter Thiel, possess distinct political ideals that are intertwined with their business interests, suggesting that their political actions are driven by a desire to protect their economic empires [5][6]. - It is noted that Musk's vision of establishing a utopia on Mars reflects a broader desire among certain right-wing factions to escape what they perceive as a deteriorating social order in the U.S. [8][9]. Group 3: Critique of Governance Philosophy - The article critiques Musk's approach to governance, arguing that his business-oriented mindset, which emphasizes cost-cutting and efficiency, is ill-suited for managing a nation, as it overlooks the complexities of societal needs [13][15]. - The tension between Musk's technological optimism and the realities of political governance is emphasized, suggesting that his reliance on technology as a panacea for societal issues is fundamentally flawed [19][21]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The article points out the inherent challenges Musk faces in establishing a viable political party, including the difficulty of gaining traction in a political landscape dominated by two major parties and the need to build local support networks [16][24]. - It concludes that Musk's political endeavors are likely to fail due to a disconnect with the broader electorate and the complexities of American political dynamics [15][24].
沃尔夫冈·施特雷克:当下美欧政策变化是出于绝望的盲动,切勿赋予其过高的战略意义
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-06 07:14
Group 1 - The article discusses the critical point of capitalism, indicating that the "buying time" strategy is nearing its limits due to the disconnection between debt repayment capacity and economic growth potential [1] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion since the 2008 financial crisis, with ongoing debates about the debt ceiling becoming a political tool, suggesting that the "myth of American economic invincibility" is at risk of collapse [2] - The trend of de-globalization has been ongoing since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a shift in governance that reflects a desperate response to systemic failures of neoliberalism [5][6] Group 2 - The article highlights the transformation of the "tax state" into a "debt state," where the burden of public spending is shifted to lower-income groups, leading to increased wealth inequality [7] - The ongoing rise in public debt and the inability of Western democracies to maintain legitimacy is illustrated by the rise of right-wing populism, particularly in countries that have ceded some sovereignty to the EU [10] - The EU's tightening policies have stripped member states of their economic sovereignty, revealing a governance vacuum in the face of cross-border capital flows [9]
南非变成穷国,是黑人的错还是白人的错?
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-08 08:30
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent conflict between Trump and Musk, highlighting Musk's controversial statements regarding South Africa and land reform [1][3][26] - It emphasizes Trump's historical criticism of South Africa's land reform policies, labeling them as racial discrimination against white farmers [2][25] - The article argues that the portrayal of white South Africans as victims is misleading, as they still hold significant economic advantages over the black population [4][5][6] Group 2 - The land reform in South Africa is framed as a necessary response to historical injustices stemming from colonialism and apartheid, where white settlers appropriated land from indigenous populations [7][15][18] - The article outlines the slow progress of land reform since the end of apartheid, with only a fraction of the targeted land being redistributed to black South Africans [16][27] - It critiques the neoliberal policies adopted by the African National Congress (ANC), which have hindered effective land reform and exacerbated social inequalities [28][32][33]
美学者:也许我们应该更多地学习中国,而不是对其成功视而不见
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-07 22:40
Group 1 - The core argument presented by Richard D. Wolff is that the resilience of the Chinese economy in the face of trade wars is rooted in its unique institutional advantages, contrasting sharply with the profit-driven nature of American capitalism [1][4][8] - Wolff critiques American capitalism as being fundamentally profit-driven, leading to structural issues that manifest in trade wars and a lack of domestic prosperity [2][3][8] - He highlights that the U.S. has outsourced manufacturing to lower-cost countries, which has not resulted in domestic economic growth, but rather reflects a systemic issue within American capitalism [2][3] Group 2 - Wolff emphasizes that China's economic model is characterized by a strong government role that guides development in key sectors, allowing for rapid advancements in areas like high-speed rail and renewable energy [5][6] - The mixed economy in China, which combines state-owned and private enterprises, is seen as a mechanism to address market failures and ensure that critical sectors are not neglected [6][7] - The institutional goals in China focus on serving national development and public interests, contrasting with the shareholder-centric approach of American corporate governance [7][8] Group 3 - Wolff argues that the efficiency and organizational capacity of China's system are significant factors contributing to its economic success, especially in the context of trade tensions with the U.S. [8][9] - He posits that the U.S. is experiencing a decline, with internal crises exacerbated by a focus on profit over public welfare, leading to deteriorating infrastructure and social division [8][9] - The discussion raises the question of whether the U.S. has the willingness to learn from China's institutional strengths, despite the complexities and challenges present in Chinese society [9][10]
一家河北县城民企,成为英国政府的眼中钉
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-05 03:29
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the UK steel industry, focusing on the conflict surrounding the Scunthorpe steel plant, which is now owned by a Chinese private enterprise, and the implications of this ownership on the UK's ability to produce primary steel. Group 1: Historical Context - Scunthorpe was once a significant steel production hub in England, known for its clean factories and green spaces, earning the nickname "Industrial Garden" [5] - By the 1960s, Scunthorpe was one of the top five steel production bases in the UK, but the industry has since faced a dramatic decline [5][9] - The UK steel industry produced 2.8 million tons of steel in 1970, but by 2023, this figure had plummeted to 5.6 million tons, marking a decline of 3.68% annually [24] Group 2: Current Industry Status - As of 2023, the UK steel industry employs approximately 37,000 workers and produces 5.6 million tons of steel, with 76% being primary steel and 24% recycled steel [9] - The Scunthorpe plant and the Tata Steel plant in Port Talbot are the last remaining facilities producing primary steel in the UK, and both are facing significant operational challenges [13][15] Group 3: Ownership and Economic Implications - The Scunthorpe plant is owned by China's Jingye Group, which acquired it after a series of ownership changes, including Tata Steel and Greybull Capital [45][39] - The UK steel industry is now largely controlled by foreign entities, with Tata and Jingye employing about 11,200 workers, representing one-third of the total workforce in the sector [15][18] - The closure of primary steel production facilities would leave the UK as the only G7 country unable to produce its own primary steel, raising concerns about national security and industrial capability [13][15] Group 4: Environmental and Political Challenges - The UK government has been caught in a dilemma between supporting environmental initiatives and maintaining domestic steel production capabilities [31][67] - The proposed transition from blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces by Jingye is seen as a cost-saving measure but threatens to eliminate 1,500 to 2,000 jobs [55][57] - The UK Parliament has intervened to prevent the closure of the Scunthorpe plant, reflecting the tension between environmental goals and industrial sovereignty [58][60]
金观涛:我的哲学探索
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-02 04:34
Group 1 - The article discusses the contrasting ideologies represented by the candidates in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, highlighting political conservatism and a distorted form of neoliberalism known as "wokeness" [1][3] - Wokeness, which has gained traction since the 2020 Black Lives Matter movement, seeks to address social inequalities related to gender and race while promoting a multitude of sexual orientations and enforcing political correctness [1][3] - The article emphasizes the historical context of nationalism and its lessons from the 19th century, suggesting that the rise of wokeness has left many feeling uncertain about the future of globalization [3][4] Group 2 - The author traces the philosophical roots of wokeness back to postmodernism, which emerged in the late 20th century and challenged established truths, leading to a crisis of authenticity in contemporary society [3][4] - The book "Real and Virtual: Philosophy in the Post-Truth Era" analyzes the long-term factors contributing to the rise of postmodernism and its impact on global ideologies, including Marxism and neoliberalism [4][6] - The article argues that the scientific wars of the 1990s, which criticized postmodernism, did not resolve the ongoing crisis of authenticity faced by the modern world [6][9] Group 3 - The author proposes that a return to a philosophy of authenticity is necessary to address the challenges posed by wokeness and to understand consciousness and its origins [9][10] - The discussion includes the integration of scientific methodologies into philosophical discourse, suggesting that the legacy of 20th-century scientific thought can help navigate contemporary philosophical dilemmas [10][11] - The article highlights the relationship between artificial intelligence and philosophy, indicating that while AI can process language, it lacks consciousness, which raises questions about the nature of knowledge and understanding [11][12]
货币与政府:如何应对不确定性
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-05-29 00:46
Group 1 - The article discusses the limitations of economics as a social science, emphasizing that economic theories cannot be permanently validated or invalidated due to the changing nature of human behavior and societal ideas [2][3] - Keynesian economics, which emerged during the Great Depression, highlighted the role of government in stabilizing the economy and addressing issues like insufficient effective demand and unemployment [3][4] - The rise of neoliberalism in the 1970s challenged Keynesian principles, attributing economic stagnation to government intervention rather than market failure, yet Keynesian policies remain relevant during economic crises [4][8] Group 2 - The concept of uncertainty is central to Keynes's theory, influencing his views on money and government as tools to manage economic unpredictability [5][6] - Keynesian policies are particularly effective in addressing liquidity preference traps, where individuals hoard cash during economic downturns, leading to insufficient demand [6][7] - Despite the decline of Keynesianism in the 1970s due to its inability to address stagflation, the theory's focus on short-term stabilization remains significant in guiding macroeconomic policy during crises [8][9]
特朗普一生经历的13起全球化大事件
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-27 12:19
Core Viewpoint - The trade conflict initiated by the Trump administration on April 2, 2025, marks a significant moment in U.S.-China relations, highlighting a deepening mistrust that may hinder future cooperation and poses a threat to globalization itself [1][12] Summary by Sections Historical Context of Globalization - Globalization has ancient roots, evolving through significant historical events such as the Silk Road and the Age of Exploration, culminating in the modern era post-World War II [1] - The establishment of the United Nations Charter in 1945 laid the political framework for the current wave of globalization, aiming to prevent conflicts similar to those of the World Wars [1] Economic Foundations - The creation of international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank aimed to facilitate global trade liberalization and prevent the recurrence of economic crises [2] - The Marshall Plan initiated in 1947 provided crucial economic support to war-torn Europe, fostering a transatlantic market that became central to early globalization [2][3] Key Events in Globalization - The Colombo Plan and the Fourth Plan were early aid initiatives that integrated former colonies into the global economy, enhancing their productivity and purchasing power [3] - The transportation revolution, particularly the advent of container shipping, drastically reduced logistics costs, facilitating international trade [3] - The computer revolution provided the technological backbone for subsequent financial and internet revolutions, further accelerating globalization [3] Acceleration of Globalization - The 1970s marked a significant acceleration in globalization, driven by the Nixon Shock, which decoupled the dollar from gold, enhancing the dollar's role as a global currency [5] - Nixon's visit to China in 1972 opened the door for China to engage with the U.S.-led global market, setting the stage for future economic reforms [5] Expansion and Challenges - The Reagan-Thatcher era introduced deregulation and privatization, which contributed to the globalization process but also led to issues like "deindustrialization" in the U.S. [6] - The collapse of the Soviet Union expanded the global market, integrating former socialist states into the capitalist system [6] - The commercialization of the internet and satellite communications in the 1990s further connected global markets, although the 2008 financial crisis prompted a reevaluation of globalization's benefits [7][8] Recent Developments - The COVID-19 pandemic raised concerns about supply chain security, prompting countries to reconsider their reliance on global manufacturing, particularly from China [10] - The rise of populist movements, exemplified by Brexit and Trump's election, reflects a backlash against globalization, with leaders advocating for more protectionist policies [11][12]