2025年的一轮中美交手后，特朗普更换了怎样的隐蔽"打法"？美国对国际秩序的破坏是否是永久性的？ 面对不确定的国际局势，中国该如何清醒应对，信心与底气来源于何处？针对以上话题，观察者网在新 春之际对话了知名美国问题专家金灿荣教授。 观察者网：这次我们编辑部策划了一个专题，叫"新大陆与旧地图：全球体系的认知重启"。其中提出一 个判断：世界可能正从"相互依存的地球村"，走向一个多中心、多规则、多联盟的碎片化时代。对于这 样的描述，您怎么看？这种"碎片化"的判断是否已经形成较广泛的共识？还是说，这只会是一个短期的 过渡现象？ 金灿荣：这个世界应该讲正在发生巨变。习主席讲世界进入"百年未有之大变局"，而且是一个现在进行 时。所以，现在就给这个世界做一个定性的描述，我觉得还早了一点，还不能下最终结论。 我们只能说，变化中确实出现了一些趋势，可以讨论。但这个世界最后会走向什么形态，现在还不好 说。但有一点我比较确定：我们正在熟悉的那个世界，正在消失。我们熟悉的是什么世界？就是二战后 的国际秩序。这个二战后的国际秩序，在整个人类国际关系史上，其实是一个例外，而不是常态。 从美国"退群"联合国到特朗普筹办"和平委员会"，听命 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of reforming the global governance system and enhancing global governance capabilities, particularly in the context of China's four major initiatives proposed by President Xi Jinping [1] - The establishment of a sovereign state system and the arrival of a comprehensive international relations era represent significant progress in post-war international relations, allowing most nations to express their will and strength [2][3] - The article highlights the need for a democratic, equitable, inclusive, and just global governance system, reflecting on the historical context of international relations and the necessity for reform [2][3] Group 2 - The relationship between global governance and national governance is crucial, as poor domestic governance limits a country's willingness and ability to engage in global governance [4] - The article calls for a re-evaluation of democracy, suggesting that new meanings should be assigned to democracy that promote genuine multilateralism and improve domestic governance quality [5] - Establishing institutional communication mechanisms between global governance and national governance is essential to ensure they do not conflict with each other [5] Group 3 - Incremental improvements in the global governance system are necessary, particularly from emerging countries like China, which supports the UN's core role in international affairs [6] - The article points out that structural issues in the global governance system are becoming increasingly apparent, indicating that mere incremental improvements may not suffice [6] Group 4 - Structural contradictions in global governance arise from the separation of internal and external politics, affecting countries' ability to participate in global governance [7] - The shift towards a multipolar world and the need for a more democratic and equitable governance structure are highlighted as ongoing challenges [7][8] - The article discusses the importance of incorporating various actors, such as multinational corporations and social organizations, into the global governance framework [8] Group 5 - The relationship between planning and action in global governance is emphasized, with a focus on the need for effective execution of global governance initiatives [9] - The article suggests that planning can mitigate the negative impacts of domestic political polarization on international commitments and cooperation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of salary determination, arguing that factors such as power dynamics, inertia, imitation, and fairness play a more significant role than individual performance or effort in determining wages [10][11][12]. Group 1: Salary Determination Factors - The author identifies four key factors influencing salary: power, inertia, imitation, and fairness, with power being the most critical in the labor-capital negotiation [10][11]. - Inertia refers to the tendency for specific job salary rates to remain constant over time, leading to a perception that certain salary levels are justified [11]. - Imitation occurs when employers replicate the salary standards of their competitors, often justifying their pay as "market price" [11]. Group 2: Performance Evaluation Challenges - The article critiques the traditional "more work, more pay" notion, suggesting that performance metrics often fail to accurately reflect true productivity [4][10]. - In various industries, such as media, quantifiable performance indicators can lead to negative outcomes like sensationalism and a focus on quantity over quality [5][6]. - The evaluation of public sector roles, such as doctors and teachers, is particularly challenging due to the difficulty in quantifying their contributions [6]. Group 3: Impact of Transparency and Information - The lack of salary transparency can weaken employees' bargaining power, as they may not know if they are receiving fair compensation compared to their peers [13]. - The Sony Pictures hack incident led to increased salary transparency, revealing significant pay disparities and prompting negotiations for higher wages among affected employees [13]. Group 4: Macro Changes Affecting Wages - The article highlights macroeconomic shifts, such as globalization and technological advancements, which have shifted the balance of power towards employers, often at the expense of workers [19][20]. - The changing corporate profit distribution model has prioritized shareholder interests over employee compensation, exacerbating wage disparities [21][24]. Group 5: Strategies for Fair Compensation - The author suggests three strategies for establishing a fairer wage system: raising minimum wages, expanding the middle class, and reducing executive pay [25]. - Recent initiatives in China to increase minimum wage standards and protect the rights of gig economy workers align with these strategies [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent military actions by the United States against Venezuela, highlighting the impact on Venezuelan society and the broader implications for Latin America, particularly regarding economic and political stability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Military Actions and Immediate Impact - The U.S. military action against Venezuela marks a significant escalation, being the first direct attack on a Latin American country in over 30 years [1]. - Following the military actions, Caracas experienced a state of heightened alert, with citizens exhibiting cautious behavior and limiting outings primarily to essential needs [2]. - Reports indicate that the U.S. has completed the sale of Venezuelan oil worth $500 million, with plans for Venezuela to transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. at market prices [2]. Group 2: Societal Reactions and Concerns - Citizens express a sense of "tense calm," with a pervasive uncertainty about future conflicts and interventions, reflecting a collective anxiety about the country's direction [2][3]. - The attack has raised concerns among neighboring countries, with Colombia deploying approximately 30,000 soldiers to its border with Venezuela, indicating regional instability [3]. Group 3: Economic and Political Context - Venezuela's economy has been in decline, with families feeling the effects of reduced income and increased economic hardship, leading to a loss of traditional practices such as family vacations [6]. - There is a growing fear that the political landscape in Latin America may shift towards the right or become more aligned with U.S. interests, undermining the historical experiences and political memories of the region [6][7]. - The article emphasizes the need for Latin American countries to seek a path that resists external pressures while addressing internal economic and social issues [8]. Group 4: Historical Perspectives and Future Outlook - The historical context of exploitation and resistance in Latin America is highlighted, suggesting that the current U.S. intervention may provoke a backlash rather than support from the local population [9][12]. - Scholars argue for a "third way" for Latin America, advocating for multilateralism and regional integration without succumbing to U.S. dominance [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between the fictional town of Macondo in Gabriel Garcia Marquez's "One Hundred Years of Solitude" and the real-life socio-political situation in Latin America, particularly focusing on Venezuela's current crisis and the historical cycles of isolation and struggle faced by the region [2][9][19]. Group 1: Historical Context of Latin America - Latin America has been historically isolated and marginalized from global civilization, a situation exacerbated by colonial practices that entrenched divisions and inequalities [4][12]. - The region's development has been characterized by cycles of upheaval and instability, often resulting from the concentration of wealth and power among a few landowners and military leaders, known as "caudillos" [12][14]. - The economic dependency on primary product exports has left Latin American countries vulnerable to external shocks, leading to repeated crises [13][14]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Their Consequences - The shift towards import substitution industrialization in the mid-20th century aimed to reduce dependency on foreign goods but ultimately led to inefficiencies and a reliance on foreign debt [15][16]. - The debt crisis of the 1980s marked a significant turning point, resulting in widespread economic turmoil and the so-called "lost decade" for many Latin American nations [17]. - The adoption of neoliberal reforms in the 1990s initially brought some economic stabilization but failed to create sustainable growth, leading to renewed economic challenges in the late 1990s and early 2000s [18][19]. Group 3: Current Political Landscape - Recent elections in Latin America, such as the rise of far-right leaders like Javier Milei in Argentina, signal a potential shift back to neoliberal policies reminiscent of the past [20][21]. - The ongoing crisis in Venezuela, marked by extreme poverty and hyperinflation, reflects the fragility of economic gains achieved during previous administrations [19][22]. - The article suggests that the cyclical nature of political and economic struggles in Latin America may lead to a repetition of past mistakes, emphasizing the need for unity and collective action to break the cycle of isolation and division [22][23].

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "true self" and its implications in modern society, questioning whether an independent, authentic "true self" truly exists [1][2][9] - It highlights the obsession with authenticity in contemporary culture, where individuals commodify themselves and create personal brands to generate emotional value [25][20] - The text emphasizes the tension between individual self-perception and external perceptions, suggesting that identity is shaped by relationships with others rather than existing in isolation [25][26] Group 2 - The author critiques the neoliberal ideology that promotes the idea of the self as a commodity, linking personal identity to consumerism and market dynamics [14][25] - The article notes that the pursuit of authenticity has become a moral foundation for individualism in capitalism, influencing social, economic, and political imaginations [12][9] - It points out the psychological implications of identity politics in the 21st century, where individuals seek to define themselves through various external markers, such as personality tests [23][20]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of social media platforms has facilitated the spread of harmful ideologies such as historical nihilism, extreme feminism, and hedonism, which pose a threat to social trust and the online ecosystem [1][2][3] Group 1: Nature of Harmful Ideologies - Harmful ideologies are increasingly disguised in everyday narratives, making them more deceptive and harder to identify [2][3] - Historical nihilism is now embedded in sensational articles and videos that trivialize significant historical events, eroding collective memory and emotional identity [2][3] - Materialism and hedonism are presented as ideals through curated content showcasing luxury lifestyles, promoting anxiety and unrealistic success standards [2][3] Group 2: Role of Social Media Platforms - Social media platforms have failed to act as gatekeepers, often amplifying harmful ideologies instead of curbing their spread [2][3] - Algorithms that prioritize user engagement can inadvertently promote harmful content, leading to the creation of "cognitive echo chambers" that distort public perception [5][6] - Platforms have been criticized for allowing sensational and divisive content to dominate, undermining serious discourse and public trust [3][5] Group 3: Impact on Society - The spread of harmful ideologies can erode critical thinking and societal cohesion, particularly among youth who are still forming their worldviews [5][6] - These ideologies challenge mainstream values and can foster divisive sentiments, potentially leading to social instability [6][9] - The ongoing presence of harmful content in public discourse poses risks to national security and societal well-being [6][9] Group 4: Need for Regulation and Responsibility - There is a pressing need for clearer legal standards to address harmful content and hold platforms accountable for their role in its dissemination [7][8] - Enhanced regulatory measures and user engagement in reporting harmful content are essential for improving the online ecosystem [8][9] - Platforms must recognize their social responsibility and the importance of content safety to foster a healthier online environment [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the pressing social dilemmas arising from economic downturns, including consumerism, climate change, and ethical concerns in biotechnology, urging a reevaluation of lifestyles and values to create a better future [1][4][6]. Economic Context - The text references historical economic crises, notably the Great Depression starting in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting the political and institutional factors that contributed to economic polarization and instability [3][6]. - The 2008 financial crisis is characterized as a significant event that exposed the fragility of political systems and the moral challenges faced by society, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of the historical context behind economic downturns [6][10]. Social Challenges - The article outlines various contemporary challenges, including environmental threats, increasing poverty, and the moral implications of rapid technological advancements, which have led to a decline in political stability and social cohesion [4][6][10]. - It emphasizes the need for reflection on societal conditions and the search for pathways to overcome current predicaments, suggesting that crises can serve as opportunities for generating new knowledge and expanding scientific discourse [7][10]. Political and Ethical Implications - The text critiques the response of governments to the 2008 crisis, noting that the failure to regulate the financial sector led to widespread economic hardship, with millions projected to fall into poverty as a result of the downturn [10][11]. - It discusses the transformation of social welfare institutions and the shift in language surrounding poverty, indicating a societal tendency to view poverty as a personal failing rather than a systemic issue [14][16]. Future Considerations - The article raises fundamental questions about the sustainability of modern civilization, particularly in light of ecological, ethical, and temporal crises, and whether a viable path forward can be found [1][6][25]. - It suggests that the current socio-economic landscape is marked by a transition from producer societies to consumer societies, with significant implications for identity and community structures [22][26].

Core Viewpoint - The recovery from Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans has highlighted significant disparities among different socio-economic groups, with wealthier communities recovering much faster than those predominantly inhabited by African American laborers, raising concerns about systemic inequalities in disaster recovery efforts [1][4][6]. Group 1: Recovery Disparities - The recovery levels in New Orleans vary greatly by community, with affluent areas showing little to no signs of disaster impact, while poorer neighborhoods remain devastated [2][3]. - By 2015, nearly 60% of New Orleans' population was African American before the hurricane, but less than half of these individuals had the means to return and rebuild their homes a decade later [3][4]. Group 2: Systemic Issues in Recovery - The recovery process has been hampered by systemic issues that fail to meet the diverse needs of different community tiers, influenced by geographical, infrastructural, and socio-political factors [4][8]. - The reliance on market-driven recovery mechanisms has led to new forms of inequality, where those already disadvantaged face slower recovery or complete inability to rebuild [7][8]. Group 3: Role of Organizations and Capitalism - The concept of "disaster capitalism" has been critiqued, suggesting that the profit-driven nature of recovery efforts exacerbates existing inequalities and creates new challenges for vulnerable populations [6][7]. - Charitable organizations and volunteer groups, while active in recovery efforts, often face limitations due to their ideological constraints and the socio-economic dynamics of the communities they serve [7][8].

Core Points - The European Commission has announced an emergency fund of €30 billion to address its dependency on critical raw materials, highlighting a significant strategic failure over the past thirty years [1][3] - The funding is intended to kickstart the Critical Raw Materials Act, which aims for the EU to source at least 10% of its strategic raw materials domestically, process 40% within the EU, and recycle 25% by 2030 [5][3] - A key stipulation is that dependency on any single third country cannot exceed 65%, implicitly targeting China as the main concern [5][3] Historical Context - The article traces the roots of Europe's current predicament back to the 1980s when European elites outsourced mining and processing to developing countries, believing that developed nations should focus on R&D and finance [9][11] - This outsourcing led to a significant decline in mining capabilities and expertise in Europe, resulting in a talent gap in geological sciences [13][16] - The 2010 spike in rare earth prices due to China's export restrictions prompted a brief reconsideration of mining in Europe, but interest waned as prices fell [15][16] Current Challenges - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has exposed Europe's vulnerability in critical raw materials, leading to a realization of their over-reliance on imports [16][23] - Even if new mining projects are initiated, such as the lithium mine in Serbia, they face significant opposition and delays, complicating the recovery of the industry [18][20] - Europe's current dependency on China for rare earths is alarming, with two-thirds of Germany's imports coming from China, and over 90% when including finished products [23][26] Economic Implications - Rebuilding the rare earth supply chain in Europe is projected to take at least 10 to 15 years, with immediate supply disruptions potentially crippling industries [26][30] - The high costs associated with domestic mining and processing, coupled with bureaucratic inefficiencies, hinder investment confidence in new projects [28][30] - The recycling efforts in Europe are hampered by high costs compared to importing new materials, leading to a paradox where valuable electronic waste is exported rather than recycled [32][34] Political and Financial Landscape - The article emphasizes that breaking the current deadlock will require substantial investment, potentially in the range of hundreds of billions of euros, which is unlikely given the current political climate and fiscal constraints in Europe [36] - The €30 billion fund is viewed as insufficient to make a meaningful impact, reflecting the fragmented approach among EU member states and various governmental departments [36]