9月开门红势头未能延续，市场情绪突变。 周二，A股全线飘绿，午后跌幅有所收窄。 截至发稿，沪指跌0.36%，创业板指跌超2%，深证成指、科创50跌超1%，北证50午后拉升翻红。 目前，沪深京三市成交额超2万亿元，较上日此时放量948亿元，预计全天成交金额约2.9万亿元。 值得注意的是，A股两融余额已突破10年前的高点，创下历史新高。 截至2025年9月1日，A股市场两融余额约22970亿元，单日增长约356亿元。 回顾来看，今年6月以来，两融余额开启了强劲稳步的上升态势。 并自8月起，两融余额接连突破了2万亿元、2.1万亿元、2.2万亿元整数关口。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | my | 3861.52 | -14.01 | -0.36% | | 000001 | | | | | | 创业板指 | may | 2895.03 | -61.34 | -2.07% | | 399006 | | | | | | 深证成指 | | 12617.79 | -211.16 | -1.65% | | 399001 | ...

Group 1: Core Issues in A-Share Market - The A-share market is currently focused on three main issues: the potential and limitations of household deposits moving to the stock market, the regulatory stance on rising stock prices, and investor expectations regarding economic policy catalysts [1][2][6] - Morgan Stanley estimates that there is a potential of 6-7 trillion RMB in excess term deposits available for reallocation, but significant inflows into the stock market depend on sustained market momentum and improvements in fundamentals [1][2][5] Group 2: Deposit Migration - The potential for household deposits to shift to the stock market is primarily driven by excess allocation during 2022-2023, influenced by increased household savings during lockdowns, adjustments in the real estate market, and a weak job market leading to lower risk appetite [2][5] - Financial institutions, particularly insurance companies, contributed approximately 600 billion RMB to stock market liquidity in the first half of the year, supported by central bank relending tools and more flexible investment performance assessments [5] Group 3: Regulatory Attitude - The regulatory body has shown a balanced attitude towards recent capital market performance, signaling support for healthy development while preventing excessive speculation [6][7] - The use of precise regulatory tools, such as the "national team" and window guidance, aims to intervene at appropriate times to curb excessive risk-taking, with recent market indicators showing signs of overheating [6][7] Group 4: Market Narrative - Despite challenges in the macroeconomic fundamentals, investor concerns about export prospects have eased, shifting focus towards potential policy catalysts and sustainable measures to boost domestic demand [7] - Anticipation is building for the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" and the Central Economic Work Conference, which are expected to provide clearer guidance on reform priorities, particularly in areas like local incentive mechanisms and tax reforms [7]