Core Viewpoint - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating that loan rates for enterprises and residents are at historically low levels [1] Group 1 - The decision to maintain the LPR at current levels was widely anticipated by market participants [1] - Following the policy rate cut in May, the LPR was adjusted downwards, and the current stability reflects the lack of significant changes in factors affecting LPR pricing [1] - The unchanged policy rate in June suggests that the transmission of previous rate cuts to loan rates is ongoing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is expected to implement a series of monetary policy measures, focusing on quantity-based, price-based, and structural monetary policies, with anticipated interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions throughout the year [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank's comprehensive monetary policy measures will target three directions: quantity-based policies, price-based policies, and structural monetary policies [1] - It is projected that the policy interest rate will be reduced by 0.6 percentage points over the year [1] - The reserve requirement ratio is expected to be lowered by 1 percentage point throughout the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and a decrease in the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, aiming to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market and support economic stability [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The PBOC lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to inject about 1 trillion yuan into the banking system, enhancing credit availability [2][4]. - The policy interest rate was reduced from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The simultaneous implementation of these monetary policy measures indicates a shift towards a more accommodative monetary stance aimed at stabilizing growth [4]. - The chief macro analyst from Dongfang Jincheng predicts that the overall policy interest rate reduction for the year could reach 0.6 percentage points, with a total reserve requirement reduction of 1 percentage point, maintaining a similar level to the previous year [4].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, marking the largest decline in nearly two years[2][3] - The decline is attributed to two main factors: a significant change in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease in manufacturing activity compared to March[3] - New export orders index fell sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level in 28 months, primarily due to high tariffs impacting orders from the U.S.[4] Economic Indicators - The production index for April was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weakened market demand[4] - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.0%, while the factory price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.3%, indicating significant contraction in both indices[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point decline, showcasing resilience amid market challenges[5][6] Future Outlook - The construction PMI for April was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, influenced by a slowdown in real estate investment; however, civil engineering activity index rose to 60.9%, indicating potential for increased infrastructure investment[6] - The central government's recent policy directives emphasize stronger counter-cyclical measures and proactive macroeconomic policies, suggesting a focus on boosting domestic demand and infrastructure investment[7] - It is anticipated that the manufacturing PMI may remain in contraction territory in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[7]

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][2]. - Production and new orders indices are at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and market demand [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point drop, demonstrating resilience and strong support from market demand and policy [3]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to external economic changes, particularly the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease following the peak in March [2][3]. Service Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates expansion [4]. - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with seasonal factors contributing to this change [5]. - The construction PMI is reported at 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, although civil engineering activity shows a significant increase, indicating potential for future growth [5]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is that domestic demand will counterbalance the slowdown in external demand, becoming a key support for manufacturing sector performance [6]. - There is a prediction that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the contraction zone in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to increased policy support [7]. - The likelihood of policy rate cuts is increasing as the manufacturing PMI remains in contraction for two consecutive months, with expectations for timely adjustments in monetary policy [1][7].