（注：本文为原创分析，核心观点基于公开信息及市场推导，以上观点仅供参考，不做为入市依据 ）长江有色金属网 宏观面：本周铅价强势拉涨背后，是四重宏观动力形成的共振效应：首先，美联储降息预期不断强化，降低了持有有色金属等非 生息资产的"机会成本"，吸引全球资金涌入金属市场；其次，人民币显著升值，直接压低了原材料进口成本，同时增强了国内投 资者对人民币计价资产的配置偏好；再次，国内 "政策暖风"频吹，央行明确传递宽松信号，商务部力推消费促进，共同提振了 市场对经济与工业需求的复苏信心；最后，美国初请失业金数据边际改善，缓解了市场对全球经济衰退的深度担忧，风险偏好回 升。这四大因素共同构筑了当前铅价上行的宏观逻辑基础，推动其走势与宏观情绪高度同步。 供需端现状 当前铅市正处 "弱平衡"博弈的核心：在供应刚性与需求弹性的刀尖上，价格于狭窄区间内持续徘徊。供应端，原生铅仍受铅精 矿结构性紧缺制约，而再生铅则面临冬季回收难与政策调整的双重扰动，整体供应弹性不足，社会库存低位为价格构筑了明确支 撑。需求侧则呈现 "传统持稳、新兴承压"的分化局面：电动自行车、汽车起动电池等传统领域凭借冬季备货季展现韧性，但新 能源汽车渗透对铅 ...

Market Overview - On December 12, the A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after an initial decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3850 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.35 points, up 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 13258.33 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 21,192 billion yuan, indicating an increase compared to the previous trading day[3] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as power equipment, grid equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electricity showed strong performance, while real estate, energy metals, and commercial retail lagged behind[3] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, with notable increases in precious metals, grid equipment, and semiconductor sectors[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.91 times and 48.81 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The current market conditions suggest a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] Economic Outlook - The domestic economy is in a phase of moderate recovery, but foundational support needs to be solidified[3] - The potential for further upward movement in the market is increasing due to favorable policies and improved liquidity conditions[3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors such as power equipment, grid equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electricity for short-term investment opportunities[3] - Close attention should be paid to macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments[3]

华创证券指出，11月出口增速反弹超预期（较上月高7个点）有基数的影响（5个点左右），也有需求韧 性的支撑。一是11月我国制造业PMI新出口订单大幅修复且各行业全面回升，二是出口边际增长动能有 所恢复。9—11月环比平均1.1%，与历史同期均值相近，Q3出口月度环比均值仅有0.4%（大幅低于过去 十年同期平均1.4%）。往后看，月度视角下，12月基数抬升，或带来同比读数2—3个点的调整压力。 季度视角下，领先指标显示外需环境稳健，电子链或继续助力增长。半年至一年维度下，货币宽松累积 效应驱动的稳定外需环境+机电出口景气，或支撑出口维持偏强韧性。 中原证券指出，周二A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在3923点 附近遭遇阻力，随后股指震荡回落，盘中商业百货、电子元件、光伏设备以及医疗服务等行业表现较 好；有色金属、能源金属、贵金属以及钢铁等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅整理的运行特征。 当前国内经济宏观面处于温和修复但基础仍需巩固的状态。中长期支撑本轮A股上涨的基础并未发生转 变。在政策暖风、资金改善的合力下，市场再度向上运行的可能性正在增加。预计上证指数围绕4000点 附近蓄势 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views Index Futures - US inflation "exploded", with the July PPI rising to 0.9% month - on - month, a three - year high, and 3.3% year - on - year. The strong US PPI data dampened the September Fed rate - cut expectation. The index's strength results from positive feedback of policy support, capital inflows, and event catalysts. After reaching a short - term high, it may oscillate, but the medium - term upward trend remains. Hold positions or lock in profits on dips, and consider buying on dips for those without positions [1]. - The RSI indicator shows the market is approaching a short - term high [5]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is currently constrained by risk assets. Although the equity market ended an eight - day winning streak, the adjustment was limited, and trading volume reached a high of 2.3 trillion. The current equity - dominant pattern may not reverse soon, suppressing the bond market in the short term. Attention should be paid to the economic data to be released on Friday to see if it can support the bond market [3]. - The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may weaken [7]. Group 3: Market Review Index Futures - The CSI 300 index futures main contract fell 0.02%, the SSE 50 index futures main contract rose 0.48%, the CSI 500 index futures main contract fell 1.00%, and the CSI 1000 index futures main contract fell 0.95% [5]. Treasury Futures - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.36%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [6]. Group 4: Strategy Suggestions Index Futures - Buy on dips [1]. Treasury Futures - Expect a volatile operation [3]. Group 5: Data Tables - On August 14, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various index and treasury futures contracts are presented in a table, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year futures [8]. Group 6: Charts - There are multiple charts showing the trends, price - to - earnings ratios, trading volumes, open interests, trading volume - to - open interest ratios, basis, basis rates, annualized basis rates, and inter - period spreads of index and treasury futures [9][10][11][12][15][17][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][29][30][31][32][34][36][37][39][40][43][44][46][47][49][51][52][54][55][56][57]