Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.77%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 1.2%. Most tech stocks declined, including Alibaba down over 2%, JD Group down 2%, and NetEase down nearly 3%. In contrast, new energy vehicle stocks were active, with Xpeng Motors rising nearly 2% [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the upcoming half-year earnings report period in August will be a crucial point for the continuation of the Hong Kong stock market. The market is expected to shift from liquidity-driven to performance-driven and policy validation phases, with stocks exceeding earnings expectations likely to benefit [1] - Industrial Securities maintains a bullish outlook on Hong Kong stocks, expecting a long-term bull market driven by increasing investor confidence, particularly among Chinese investors. The firm anticipates a continued upward trend in the second half of the year, with potential new highs [1] Group 2 - Cathay Pacific Securities forecasts that the Hong Kong stock market will continue its bull market trend in the second half of the year, driven by incremental capital inflows and structural asset advantages. The firm notes that the overall reduction pressure from stock unlocks has eased, although high valuations in new consumption sectors may still face unlock pressure [2] - Huatai Securities attributes recent market corrections to adjustments in internal and external expectations but maintains that the medium-term liquidity easing logic remains unchanged. The firm recommends focusing on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly in technology [2] - Bank of China International reports that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's sale of USD for HKD has minimal impact on the stock market, as these funds are primarily risk-averse. The firm predicts the Hang Seng Index will reach 27,500 points by the end of the year, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 12.3 times, reflecting a 5% premium over the past 20-year average [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.6%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.69%. Tencent Holdings increased by 2.39%, reaching a new high not seen in over four years. Overall, tech stocks showed strength, with Alibaba up 0.89% and Xiaomi Group up 1.31% [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the performance period in August will be a crucial point for the continuation of the Hong Kong stock market trend, shifting from liquidity-driven to performance-driven and policy validation phases. Companies with better-than-expected earnings and upgraded guidance are expected to benefit [1] - Industrial Securities maintains a bullish outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, expecting a long-term bull market driven by increasing investor confidence, particularly from Chinese investors. The market is anticipated to trend upwards in the second half of the year, with potential new highs [1] Group 2 - Cathay Pacific Securities forecasts that the Hong Kong stock market will continue its bull market trend in the second half of the year, driven by incremental capital inflows and structural asset advantages. The total financing scale for the year is expected to approach 300 billion HKD, with reduced selling pressure following the peak of share unlocks in Q2 [2] - Huatai Securities notes that recent market corrections are due to adjustments in internal and external expectations, but the medium-term liquidity easing logic remains unchanged. The recommendation is to focus on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly in technology [2] - Bank of China International states that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's sale of USD for HKD has minimal impact on the stock market, as these funds are primarily risk-averse. The average daily trading volume in July 2025 is projected to reach 262.9 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 167% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that while the profit growth rate for Hong Kong stocks is expected to slow down in the first half of 2025, sectors such as retail, education, diversified finance, and gaming are anticipated to see continued profit growth [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is set to experience a concentrated disclosure of mid-year reports in late August, with a slight expansion in the A/H premium observed since the end of July [1] - The shift in A/H premium dynamics is expected to evolve from a simplistic investment approach based on H-share discount rates to a more multifaceted strategy that incorporates company fundamentals, chip structure, and historical discount percentiles [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are projected to benefit certain sectors, particularly those facing overcapacity and price/profit pressure in the resource and service industries [1] - The market is anticipated to transition from liquidity-driven momentum to a phase driven by performance and policy validation, with mid-year earnings reports serving as a critical juncture for the continuation of the Hong Kong stock market rally [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended sectors include: 1) Direct beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies such as solar energy, rare earths, lithium, and express delivery, along with indirectly benefiting insurance [1] 2) High-growth sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology, where performance expectations are likely to be met and guidance may be upgraded [1] 3) High-quality leading enterprises with scarcity and stable performance are expected to undergo value reassessment in the context of a low interest rate environment in mainland China [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the performance period of semi-annual reports in August will be a crucial point for the continuation of the Hong Kong stock market, with a shift from liquidity-driven to performance-driven and policy validation phases expected [1] Industry Insights - The focus of the market is anticipated to shift from "expectations" to "realization," with stocks that exceed performance expectations and have upward guidance likely to benefit [1] - The marginal changes in the "anti-involution" policy will become a core variable for pricing in corresponding industries [1] Recommended Sectors - Direct beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policy include solar energy, rare earths, lithium, and express delivery, along with indirectly benefiting insurance [1] - High-growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals and technology are expected to see performance expectations realized and guidance potentially upgraded [1] - In a low interest rate environment in mainland China, high-quality leading companies with scarcity and stable performance are likely to continue experiencing value reassessment [1]