人民财讯11月26日电，银河证券发布传媒互联网行业2026年度策略报告认为，业绩驱动+AI赋能仍是传 媒互联网行业增长的核心驱动力。建议关注AI投入不断增加、多重利好长期加持的港股互联网核心资 产、AI赋能不断深化的AI应用及产业链相关相关子板块，以及优质内容不断产出、业绩释放确定性较 高的内容板块。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with a consensus emerging that A-shares present structural opportunities and that the macroeconomic environment will continue to show signs of recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Major securities firms predict China's economic growth for 2026 will be in the range of 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern expected [3]. - The overall judgment from economists is that the macroeconomic environment will be "stable and improving, with structural optimization" [2][3]. - Export resilience and ongoing industrial upgrades are viewed as key supports for the macroeconomy, with expectations of strong export performance in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The core direction for policy in 2026 will focus on structural optimization and a balanced approach to supply and demand [3]. - There is an expectation of moderate expansion in fiscal policy, which will support the conclusion of the deleveraging cycle [2][3]. - The need to address weak domestic demand remains a critical issue for 2026, with price stability being essential for growth [4]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The investment focus for A-shares in 2026 is expected to shift from being driven by sentiment, funds, and valuation to being driven by performance verification [5]. - Key areas of interest include technology growth, external demand breakthroughs, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - The AI revolution is entering a critical application phase, which is anticipated to support the performance of Chinese assets [6]. Group 4: Sectoral Insights - Three main structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends particularly in AI, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6][7]. - The potential for Chinese companies to improve their position in the global value chain is highlighted, with a focus on upgrading traditional manufacturing and expanding global presence [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with consensus emerging around structural opportunities in the A-share market and a continued recovery in the macro economy [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Innovation - The annual strategy meetings of various securities firms highlight "new" and "seizing opportunities" as high-frequency keywords, reflecting insights into new market trends and opportunities [2]. - Themes from different firms include "Embarking on a New Journey" by CITIC Securities and "Riding the New Wave" by Huatai Securities, indicating a collective focus on innovation and market dynamics [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - Securities firms express a consensus on a "stable and improving, structurally optimized" macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of strong export resilience and continued industrial upgrades [3][4]. - Economic growth predictions for 2026 range from 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated [3]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a moderately expansionary stance, supporting the end of the deleveraging cycle [3]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The A-share market is expected to shift from being driven by "sentiment, funds, and valuation" in 2025 to "performance verification" in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, external demand, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - Analysts emphasize that the "performance is king" narrative will dominate, with a potential for the A-share market to reach new highs due to increased allocations from both domestic and foreign investors [5][6]. - Key investment themes include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6].

Group 1 - The A-share major indices showed a strong upward trend on October 27, with the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index rising approximately 1.2% during the session [1] - The top-performing stocks included Changbao Co., Ltd., which hit the daily limit, along with Dongfang Tower, CITIC Special Steel, and Moulding Technology [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) has seen continuous net inflows of 383 million yuan over the past nine days [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, the reduction of active trend-following funds has largely been completed, and market trading volume and turnover have returned to rational levels [1] - This indicates that the recent discussions among investors regarding style switching have essentially concluded, suggesting a return to performance-driven market characteristics [1] - The free cash flow ETF (159201) focuses on industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as non-ferrous metals, automotive, petrochemicals, and power equipment, effectively mitigating single-industry volatility risks [1] Group 3 - The fund management annual fee rate is 0.15%, and the custody annual fee rate is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest in the market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that small-cap stocks in the A-share market often experience bull market trends, with the CSI 2000 index expected to show significant gains in 2025, primarily driven by incremental capital inflows from quantitative private equity [2] - In contrast, the Hong Kong stock market rarely sees similar bullish trends, indicating a difference in market dynamics between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3] Group 2 - Hong Kong investors tend to be more pragmatic, with stock index movements largely driven by company performance; stocks with low valuations but strong earnings tend to rise, while those with high valuations and poor earnings may face significant declines [4] - For instance, the Hong Kong Technology Index experienced a nearly 70% drop from 2021 to 2022 due to a combination of declining valuations and falling profits, illustrating the market's sensitivity to performance metrics [4] - By 2023, while the performance of Hong Kong tech stocks stabilized without further significant declines, the market remained lackluster, indicating a prolonged period of bottoming out for over a year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Bluefan Medical (002382) reported that the revenue from health protective gloves is expected to reach nearly 2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the revenue from cardiovascular products, which is around 700 million yuan, indicating a clear disparity in revenue scale between the two product lines [1] Revenue Analysis - The revenue scale of health protective gloves is primarily driven by established production capacity, with price recovery and profitability restoration resulting from cyclical supply-demand adjustments and industry clearing [1] - The future performance growth is expected to be mainly driven by cardiovascular products, utilizing a multi-dimensional product strategy, overseas market expansion, and platform-based sales strategies to achieve growth [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after a period of adjustment, the equity market has resumed its upward trend, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index reaching new highs for the year [2][10][11] - The market's overall performance has not shown signs of decline despite recent fluctuations, with trading volume remaining above 2 trillion yuan, reflecting strong short-term market sentiment [2][10][11] - Positive macroeconomic indicators, such as recovering PPI data and strong core CPI, along with stable industrial output and retail sales, have provided a solid foundation for market growth [2][10][11] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of core sectors, particularly in the context of a structural market rally driven by performance expectations in the technology innovation sectors [3][11][13] - It suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending continued investment in strong concepts within the innovation sectors like chips and robotics while also considering defensive positions in metals and gold [5][14] - The report highlights that the current market environment remains favorable for strong sectors, with liquidity at high levels and a lack of negative factors in the medium to long term [3][11][14] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing a decline as funds flow into equities, making it less attractive for investors, with a recommendation to consider flexible short-term bonds to hedge risks [6][36] - In the commodity market, gold stands out as a strong performer amidst a generally volatile environment, with ongoing central bank purchases reinforcing its investment appeal [7][37] - The report advises maintaining gold positions in the short term while adopting a wait-and-see approach for the medium to long term [8][38]

Group 1 - The current market is in a high-level consolidation phase, with core stocks showing recovery despite a significant drop yesterday [1] - The main drivers of the recent market rally are industry policy and performance, suggesting that the market is likely to maintain an upward trend as long as these drivers do not change [1] - Close attention should be paid to the performance of high-level technology stocks in the current market environment [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights a threefold logic driving the market: expectations of interest rate cuts, supportive policies, and performance-driven factors [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell unexpectedly released dovish signals at the Jackson Hole conference, significantly strengthening the expectation of a rate cut in September, which accelerates capital inflow into emerging markets and improves liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Shanghai has introduced new real estate policies, including reducing purchase restrictions and optimizing credit, further confirming the ongoing structural policy support that injects new catalytic momentum into the market [1] Group 2 - Despite the significant recovery in Hong Kong stock valuations, with the Hang Seng Index's forecast PE approaching the 80th percentile of the past seven years, the market still has upward support due to decreased external monetary policy uncertainty and increased internal policies aimed at reducing competition and supporting industries [1] - The article suggests focusing on technology leaders with strong performance certainty, cyclical sectors benefiting from policies, financial stocks, and commodities that benefit from the global liquidity shift [1]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.9% to 25,829 points, gaining nearly 500 points and approaching the 26,000 mark[1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 3.1%, closing at 5,825 points[1] - Market turnover reached HKD 369.6 billion, indicating strong bullish sentiment[1] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks led the market rally, with Baidu and NetEase both rising over 6%, while Alibaba and Kuaishou gained over 5%[1] - Real estate stocks performed strongly due to new policies in Shanghai aimed at optimizing purchasing limits and credit, boosting market confidence[1] - The automotive sector saw a significant rise, with Dongfeng Group's stock increasing by 54% following a restructuring announcement[4] Economic Indicators - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in the real estate market[3] - The average coal price dropped by 15.3% to HKD 149 per ton, impacting the coal sector's profitability[10] Policy and Market Outlook - The market is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, supportive policies, and strong earnings, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors[2] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio has recovered to nearly the 80th percentile of the past seven years, suggesting potential for further gains[2] Company Performance - WuXi Biologics reported a 16.1% increase in revenue to RMB 9.95 billion, with a 56.0% rise in net profit, driven by strong demand for antibody-drug conjugates[7] - Yancoal Australia saw a 61.2% decline in net profit to AUD 16 million, attributed to lower coal prices and logistical challenges[10]