Group 1: Gold Market - Last Friday, spot gold exhibited a typical high-to-low trend, soaring to around $4260 before quickly declining, closing at $4196.03, below the $4200 mark. Currently, gold is slightly up, hovering around $4206 during European trading hours [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Last week, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.5%, the S&P 500 up 0.31%, and the Nasdaq up 0.91%. The market opened December with a sense of "long-lost optimism," but this week is seen as a critical turning point [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, with results to be announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11, 2025 [5] - The FOMC is expected to lower the overnight interest rate range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. However, the market's direction will be influenced more by the decision statement, dot plot, and Powell's remarks [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - This meeting may see an unusual number of dissenting votes, revealing internal divisions within the Fed. Powell is likely to provide a "hawkish rate cut," signaling caution and conditionality, which will determine whether the market trends "steadily higher" or experiences "volatility and uncertainty" in the coming months [8] - There is skepticism about whether the market will still heed Powell's guidance, especially with Trump's hints at a potential successor for the Fed chair position. The anticipated rate cut may not resolve uncertainty but rather initiate a new wave of volatility [8][10] Group 5: Monetary Policy Actions - The real "big move" from the Fed may not be the rate cut but rather the "reopening of the liquidity spigot" through the RMP, starting in January 2026, with plans to purchase $45 billion in short-term Treasury bonds monthly, at least until June next year. This aims to replenish liquidity in the system [10] - The market's reaction to the rate cut itself may be limited, with the true stimulus coming from RMP and term repo operations to stabilize year-end liquidity [12] Group 6: International Affairs - The U.S. has announced a significant shift in its national security strategy, focusing on military presence in the Western Hemisphere to address immigration and drug trafficking, marking a departure from the long-standing "pivot to Asia" approach [13][14] - In Brazil, the political landscape has shifted unexpectedly, with Flávio Bolsonaro announcing his candidacy for the 2026 presidential election, supported by his father, which has led to a reduction in market bets on a more market-friendly candidate [15]

Group 1 - Michael Burry warns that the U.S. stock market may face a prolonged bear market similar to 2000 due to the dominance of passive investing, which now accounts for over 50% of the market [2][22][23] - Burry believes that the current AI investment craze resembles the "data transmission bubble" of 2000, indicating a disconnect between capital expenditure and stock market peaks [2][7][34] - He has a bearish outlook on Palantir, predicting a significant drop in its stock price over the next two years due to its high valuation and poor financial health, with a current price of $200 per share and an estimated fair value of $30 or lower [5][26][30] Group 2 - Burry identifies a critical threat to Google's core search business from AI, as the costs associated with AI search are significantly higher than traditional search, which has historically been very low-cost [2][38][40] - He argues that the majority of users will access AI services for free, and the willingness to pay for large models will be minimal, leading to a highly commoditized market [40][41] - Burry criticizes the Federal Reserve, stating it has not contributed positively over its century-long existence and suggests that its functions should be transferred to the Treasury [3][44]

近日，以准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的"大空头"Michael Burry接受了一档播客节目的访谈。 在对话中，Michael Burry对当前美股市场的展望持极度悲观态度，认为未来几年可能会迎来一场类似 2000年的长期熊市。他判断，由于被动投资（指数基金）占据市场主导地位（超过50%），未来市场下 跌时将是"一体下跌"，在美国很难靠多头仓位保护自己。 Burry将当前的AI投资热潮类比为2000年的"数据传输泡沫"，指出两者都存在资本开支与股市见顶的时 滞。他押注Palantir在两年内会大幅下跌，看空的核心理由是其不合理的估值和不健康的财务结构，特 别是公司在收入不高的情况下，通过大量高成本的股权激励造就了多位亿万富翁，而历史上几乎没有赚 到过真正的利润。 以下为访谈亮点总结： 以下为访谈实录，部分内容有删减： 我认为现在股市的状况不妙，未来几年可能会很糟糕，可能会迎来一段类似 2000 年那 样的长期熊市。 现在，我认为整个市场会一体下跌，在美国很难靠持有多头仓位同时保护自己。 例如，Palantir 现在是 200 美元一股，而我认为它只值 30 美元甚至更低，我就会在执 行价 50 美元的位置 ...