国泰海通发布研报称，沃什的"实用货币主义"既向市场表明了美联储控制通胀的决心，也能够满足特朗 普的降息诉求，其目的是纠正过渡QE产生的市场扭曲，实现"K"型经济的收敛。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 1）"缩表+降息"：新美联储主席的政策主张 沃什最令人瞩目的政策主张是"降息+缩表"。他认为美联储需要为通胀负责，而危机后持续QE是导致通 胀的主要原因，因而要通过QT控制通胀，而一旦通胀风险和政策扭曲被纠正，就可以为降息创造空 间，沃什称此为"实用的货币主义"。 上述政策主张的背后是一场货币政策的机制改革。沃什曾多次批评美联储的巨额资产负债表，认为QE 扭曲了市场激励：2008年金融危机美联储转向"充足储备机制"，向银行释放大量超额准备金，然后通过 向准备金支付利息来控制利率走廊，这使得银行可以"躺平吃利息"，向实体经济的放贷意愿下降，资 金"脱实向虚"。沃什主张通过缩表降低银行的准备金规模，提升银行的放贷意愿，扭转后危机时代的充 足储备机制，并向危机前的"紧缺储备机制"过渡。 2）白宫与华尔街的权衡：特朗普为何选择沃什 特朗普称现任主席鲍威尔为"太迟先生"的批评，使得忠诚度较高的哈塞特一度成为最热门人选，但其激 进 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - The COMEX silver price reached a historical high, increasing by 4.7% to $78.8 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 2.5% to $4546.2 per ounce during the Christmas market rally [2][30][80] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4%, with most developed and emerging market indices also showing gains. Notably, the Nikkei 225 and the Australian stock index rose by 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively [2][3] - The US Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, and the net issuance of US debt fell, with a rolling net issuance of -$55.26 billion [2][43] - The US fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 reached $1.77 trillion, down from $1.95 trillion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $7.79 trillion [48][80] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3% (annualized), surpassing market expectations of 3.3%. This growth was primarily driven by strong consumer spending, which was influenced by a decline in the savings rate [61][80] - The unemployment claims for the week ending December 20 were 214,000, lower than expected, while the continuing claims were 1.923 million, exceeding market forecasts [64] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year bonds mostly declined, with the yield falling to 4.14% [15][19] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Markets - The US dollar index fell by 0.7% to 98.03, while other currencies appreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound, which rose by 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively [22][28] - Most commodity prices declined, with WTI crude oil dropping by 4.4% to $56.7 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 4.1% to $60.6 per barrel [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's introduction of the RMP (Reserve Management Purchase), equating it to a new form of quantitative easing (QE), which is expected to release liquidity and increase the long-term devaluation risk of fiat currencies, benefiting the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin [1] Group 1 - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) may fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000 in the short term [1] - He anticipates that once the market recognizes "RMP = QE," Bitcoin could return to $124,000 and potentially surge towards $200,000 [1] - A peak in market sentiment is expected around March next year, followed by a correction, but the overall bottom is likely to remain above $124,000 [1] Group 2 - Hayes is shifting his positions from Ethereum (ETH) to high-quality DeFi projects, believing that improved fiat liquidity will allow related DeFi assets to outperform the market [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Last Friday, spot gold exhibited a typical high-to-low trend, soaring to around $4260 before quickly declining, closing at $4196.03, below the $4200 mark. Currently, gold is slightly up, hovering around $4206 during European trading hours [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Last week, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.5%, the S&P 500 up 0.31%, and the Nasdaq up 0.91%. The market opened December with a sense of "long-lost optimism," but this week is seen as a critical turning point [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, with results to be announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11, 2025 [5] - The FOMC is expected to lower the overnight interest rate range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. However, the market's direction will be influenced more by the decision statement, dot plot, and Powell's remarks [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - This meeting may see an unusual number of dissenting votes, revealing internal divisions within the Fed. Powell is likely to provide a "hawkish rate cut," signaling caution and conditionality, which will determine whether the market trends "steadily higher" or experiences "volatility and uncertainty" in the coming months [8] - There is skepticism about whether the market will still heed Powell's guidance, especially with Trump's hints at a potential successor for the Fed chair position. The anticipated rate cut may not resolve uncertainty but rather initiate a new wave of volatility [8][10] Group 5: Monetary Policy Actions - The real "big move" from the Fed may not be the rate cut but rather the "reopening of the liquidity spigot" through the RMP, starting in January 2026, with plans to purchase $45 billion in short-term Treasury bonds monthly, at least until June next year. This aims to replenish liquidity in the system [10] - The market's reaction to the rate cut itself may be limited, with the true stimulus coming from RMP and term repo operations to stabilize year-end liquidity [12] Group 6: International Affairs - The U.S. has announced a significant shift in its national security strategy, focusing on military presence in the Western Hemisphere to address immigration and drug trafficking, marking a departure from the long-standing "pivot to Asia" approach [13][14] - In Brazil, the political landscape has shifted unexpectedly, with Flávio Bolsonaro announcing his candidacy for the 2026 presidential election, supported by his father, which has led to a reduction in market bets on a more market-friendly candidate [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential implementation of RMP (Reserve Management Purchases) may signal the end of the "quantitative tightening" era and could lead to a new round of balance sheet expansion, with a possible monthly liquidity increase of $20 billion [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to halt its balance sheet reduction, marking a significant shift in monetary policy [1] - RMP is anticipated to be widely discussed in the market, potentially being labeled as the "next generation QE" [1] - The ability of the Federal Reserve to stabilize the repo market and alter the direction of monetary policy is a key focus for Wall Street [1]