致投资者 研究是在持续迭代的过程中不断逼近真相，是一项"久久为功"的工作，只有永不停步的否定 与重构，才能不断成长。作为研究型团队，我们始终坚守初心，坚持研究为本、求真务实、勤勉 服务、敬畏市场。 2025年是团队全面升级的一年，在新的征程中，我们推进了研究框架的体系重构、研究成果 的系统展示，秉持"研之有理、落地有声"的理念，致力于提供真正有价值的独立研究成果。 感谢您一直以来的支持与信任，让我们共同进步，共创未来！ 赵伟 敬上 2025.8.16 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 经济学博士，同时担任中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员、中国首席经济学家论坛理事等社会职务。2023 年7月6日，应邀参加李强总理经济形势座谈会。 曾获沪上金融家"金融行业创新人物"、服务经济高质量发展最佳首席经济学家等称号；曾获新财富最佳分析师、 水晶球最佳分析师、金牛奖最具价值首席分析师等行业奖项。 代表作《转型之机》、《蜕变·新生》等，系统阐释了中国经济转型阶段的特征与机遇，为理论研究与实务操作 提供重要支持。 申万宏源宏观首席分析师 复旦大学经济学博士、曼彻斯特大学访问学者，曾任国金证券宏观首席分析师、东方证券财富管理总 ...

按时间线梳理，我们看对了什么？ 在市场对关税冲击悲观时，提示关税影响被"高估"。 壹 2025年4月12日 《 "高估"的关税冲击？ 》 对等关税2.0开启时，我们明确指出市场忽视了关税冲击弹性的"非线性递减"特征，忽视了关 税"反身性"所导致的"先冲击、后缓和"机制，低估了新兴市场需求走强、进口替代等影响。 国内经济，六大判断！ 今年以来，我们在关税冲击、政策框架转变、反内卷、新"三驾马车"等多领域均做出精准预判，且多 次提出了与市场主流预期不同的观点，可概括为六大重要判断： 一 贰 2025年5月14日 《 中国制造"难替代性" 》 我们从豁免清单、加价倍率、强依赖商品、"龙二"竞争力较弱等多个视角讨论了中国制造"难 替代性"，中美关税也迎来缓和。 叁 2025年8月19日 《 出口会否持续"超预期"？ 》 我们强调，今年出口走强并非源于市场认为的"抢出口"，而是中期韧性的体现，包括发达国家 正常补库周期、新兴市场工业化城镇化提速，以及我国在替代欧盟于新兴市场的份额。后续出 口仍有韧性。 提示本轮政策框架转变，总量政策空间打开， 防风险力度不减。 二 壹 2025年3月12日 《 财政注能 强振经济 》 ...

Core Insights - The country has reached a stage of large-scale production of new quality productivity, but the relevant mechanisms have not fully adapted [1] - The "new three drivers" of economic growth, namely basic research, application technology transformation, and financial services, must work in synergy to avoid being trapped in the "middle-income trap" [2] Group 1: New Three Drivers - Basic research is primarily conducted by universities and research institutions, while application technology transformation is mainly the responsibility of high-quality manufacturing enterprises [1][2] - Financial services are crucial for application technology transformation, but there is a lack of long-cycle venture capital systems to support high-risk technology transformation [2] Group 2: Industry Policy and Regulation - Industry policy should focus on creating new productivity and upgrading traditional industries through new technologies [2] - There is a need for appropriate relaxation of regulations on innovation exploration and technology implementation to foster a better business environment [3] Group 3: Role of SMEs - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable to challenges posed by a complex international economic environment, but their resilience and flexibility should not be underestimated [3][4] - The government should emphasize the importance of SMEs, especially specialized and innovative enterprises, and consider a "small first, large later" approach in resource allocation [3] Group 4: Global Expansion - The trend of enterprises "going out" should focus on high-quality, innovative products rather than competing in low-end markets [4] - State-owned enterprises and private enterprises should have clear divisions of labor in international expansion, with state-owned enterprises handling large-scale infrastructure and private enterprises focusing on integrating into local societies [4]

Group 1 - The report from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics predicts stable growth for China's economy in 2025 despite external uncertainties and internal transformation challenges [1] - On the supply side, industrial transformation continues, with new industries like new energy and new materials becoming new growth drivers, while traditional industries face overcapacity and profit shrinkage [1] - The demand side is slowly recovering but remains fragile, with households preferring to save more and reduce debt, which could have long-term implications for macroeconomic demand [1] Group 2 - The report suggests balancing short-term demand stabilization with long-term reforms, including targeted easing to alleviate debt pressure and support high-end manufacturing [2] - There is a need to break market segmentation and accelerate the construction of a unified national market to enhance market confidence and stimulate consumption and investment [2] - The current macroeconomic concern is persistently low price levels, with industries experiencing faster profit declines than cost reductions, necessitating a shift to a new governance model led by the government [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 China Macroeconomic Mid-Year Forum highlighted the need for a balance between short-term demand stabilization and long-term reforms to address the prominent supply-demand imbalance in the economy [1] - The report suggests accelerating the construction of a unified national market to foster a differentiated and healthy competitive environment, avoiding resource waste and inefficient allocation [1] - Experts at the forum emphasized the importance of high-quality economic development and proposed various strategies to enhance domestic demand and manage competition [1][2] Group 2 - Liu Yuanchun pointed out that traditional macroeconomic research models are inadequate for guiding current economic development due to the profound changes in the global landscape [3] - He advocated for a new approach that focuses on the microeconomic foundations of government, enterprises, and households, while also emphasizing the importance of the "new three drivers" of economic growth: basic research, industrial upgrading, and financial innovation [5] - Liu also stressed the need for macroeconomic governance to address "involution" competition, which has led to a decline in corporate profit margins despite falling costs [6] Group 3 - Zhang Jun highlighted the urgency of boosting domestic demand as both an immediate and long-term strategy, emphasizing the need for stable markets, expectations, and investment [10] - He proposed reforms in income distribution and social security systems to ensure steady growth in residents' consumption, including improving wage mechanisms and establishing a unified basic social security system [10][11] - Zhang also noted the importance of continuing supply-side structural reforms to enhance supply quality, which is essential for promoting demand-side reforms [11] Group 4 - Lian Ping discussed the complex interplay of structural opportunities and challenges facing the Chinese economy in the second half of the year, influenced by both certain certainties and uncertainties in the external environment [13][15] - He emphasized the need for China to maintain strategic determination and leverage its economic resilience and innovation capabilities to navigate external complexities [15] Group 5 - Lu Ting indicated that while the first half of 2025 showed decent economic performance, significant downward pressure on growth and deflation risks are expected in the second half [17] - He identified challenges such as a severe export outlook, ongoing issues in the real estate market, and potential declines in investment and production due to capacity adjustments [19] - Lu suggested a multi-faceted policy approach to address these challenges, including reforms in the real estate sector and improvements in social security to support consumption [19]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Macroeconomic Mid-Year Forum emphasizes the need for a balance between short-term demand stabilization and long-term reforms to address the prominent supply-demand imbalance in the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Challenges and Recommendations - The report highlights that despite the resilience of China's economy, the supply-demand imbalance remains a significant issue, necessitating policy adjustments [1] - Experts suggest accelerating the construction of a unified national market to foster a competitive environment and avoid resource wastage [1] - Liu Yuanchun advocates for a shift in macroeconomic governance to focus on micro-level management and address "involution" in competition as a policy priority [5][7] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Structural Reforms - Zhang Jun stresses the importance of enhancing domestic demand as both an immediate necessity and a long-term strategy, emphasizing the need for stable market expectations and investment [8][11] - Recommendations include improving local government debt management and reforming income distribution mechanisms to ensure steady growth in disposable income [11][12] - Continuous supply-side structural reforms are necessary to improve supply quality and facilitate economic circulation [12] Group 3: External Environment and Economic Outlook - Lian Ping notes that the external environment presents both structural opportunities and challenges, with complex interactions affecting global capital flows and trade patterns [13][14] - The outlook for the second half of the year indicates significant downward pressure on economic growth, particularly in exports and the real estate sector [19][21] - Policy measures are recommended to address these challenges, including reforms in the real estate market and social security systems to support consumption [21][18]

Group 1 - The overall economic performance in the first quarter showed a growth rate of 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, indicating a positive trend despite complex internal and external environments [2][3][4] - Key highlights include rapid growth in consumption, particularly in service and development-oriented consumption, with significant contributions from sectors like tourism and digital services [2][3] - Investment in high-tech industries has also seen double-digit growth, reflecting a shift in economic structure and the emergence of new productive forces [3][4] Group 2 - The implementation of a package of incremental policies in September 2022 played a crucial role in stabilizing the economy, with ongoing macro policy adjustments signaling a commitment to economic stability [4][5] - The government has set a consumer price index (CPI) target of around 2% for the year, down from 3%, to enhance the credibility and operability of macroeconomic policies [6][7] - The government aims to balance active fiscal policies with debt risk management, leveraging its relatively healthy balance sheet to stimulate domestic demand [7][8] Group 3 - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" includes 30 specific measures aimed at enhancing consumer confidence and spending capacity, focusing on various sectors including tourism and entertainment [9][10] - The emphasis on high-quality supply in services, particularly in telecommunications, healthcare, and education, is crucial for creating effective demand and promoting consumption [11][12] - The government is encouraged to adopt a dynamic approach to policy adjustments, ensuring timely and effective responses to economic conditions [12][13] Group 4 - The relationship between government and market dynamics is evolving, with a focus on enhancing government roles in facilitating market integration and providing public goods [18][19] - The balance between total supply and demand is critical, with a current emphasis on expanding domestic demand, particularly consumption, as a primary driver of economic growth [20][21] - The new "three drivers" of economic growth focus on residents, enterprises, and government, highlighting the importance of consumer spending, private investment, and proactive government policies [22][23]