Core Viewpoint - UBS Group strategists expect the outperformance of emerging market stocks to last longer than previously predicted, extending beyond the initial forecast of March [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - UBS has shifted its stance on emerging market equities from a tactical view, which was initially set to last a few months, to a more extended outlook, suggesting strong performance may continue at least until the end of the year [1] - The firm has been overweight on developing country stocks since early September and anticipates this trend to persist into the first quarter [1] Group 2: Strategic Insights - Manik Narain, the head of emerging market strategy, indicated that there are strong reasons supporting the ongoing rally, with no clear end date currently established [1] - The decision to extend the positive outlook is influenced by robust data highlighted by the technology team regarding the strength of the technology cycle [1]

来源：金十数据 根据巴西B3交易所的数据，从年初至1月23日，外国投资者净买入巴西股票的总额达177亿雷亚尔（约 合33亿美元），已超过2025年全年总额的一半。南非股票则受益于大宗商品价格高企。矿业巨头Impala Platinum的股价自去年底以来上涨近40%。随着黄金及其他贵金属持续创下新高，投资者正买入股票以 期获取收益增长。 1月30日，据日经新闻，由于全球投资者对美国的政策不确定性及美元走弱感到警惕，巴西和南非等新 兴股票市场正获得提振。这种将资产配置从依赖华尔街股票向多元化转移的趋势，已延伸至黄金及其他 贵金属之外。新兴市场股票的上涨尤为显著，2025年，MSCI新兴市场指数五年来首次跑赢MSCI发达市 场指数。拉丁美洲、中东、非洲和东欧的主要股票指数也纷纷创下新高。 ...

International News - The trilateral talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine commenced in Abu Dhabi on January 23, with closed-door discussions expected to continue on January 24 [1][10] - The US has imposed new sanctions on Iran's energy and shipping sectors, freezing assets of related entities and vessels, and prohibiting US individuals and entities from engaging in transactions with them [1][10] - The Turkish Foreign Minister indicated signs that Israel is still seeking to attack Iran [2] - The Venezuelan Defense Minister claimed that the US has used previously untested weapons in Venezuela, turning it into a weapons testing ground [3] - The US Treasury announced tax-advantaged investment accounts for all citizens under 18, as part of the Trump administration's tax reduction plan for working families [3] - The precious metals market saw significant gains, with spot silver surpassing $100 per ounce and gold reaching a historical high of $4976.59 per ounce [3][12] - The CFTC reported an increase of 2,614 contracts in net long positions for COMEX gold and a reduction of 3,719 contracts in net long positions for silver as of January 20 [3][12] Market Dynamics - Natural gas futures in the US rose over 7% to $5.417 per million British thermal units, while Bitcoin surpassed $91,000 [4][13] - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.59% at 49,098.71 points, while the Nasdaq rose 0.27% [4][13] - Intel's stock plummeted 17% to $45.07, ending a three-day rally with a trading volume of 290.4 million shares [4][13] - Amazon plans to lay off up to 16,000 employees next week, while Meta will temporarily block teenage users from accessing its AI features [5][14] Domestic News - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant volatility, with silver contracts rising 7% to 25,818.00 yuan, tin rising 8% to 453,230.00 yuan, and fuel oil rising 6% to 2,770.00 yuan [8][17] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.22%, with notable declines in several Chinese companies listed in the US, including a 6.98% drop for Fuling Global and a 6.57% drop for Haitian Network [8][17]

Core Insights - The UBS Billionaire Report indicates that by 2025, the number of billionaires will rise to 2,919, with a total wealth of $15.8 trillion, marking a 13% increase [1] - The Asia-Pacific region leads in billionaire growth, with the number of billionaires increasing from 981 to 1,036, and China adding 70 new billionaires, totaling 470, second only to the U.S. [1] - Billionaires are increasingly optimistic about investment opportunities in the Greater China region, with 34% believing it offers the best prospects, a significant rise from 11% in 2024 [1][3] Group 1: Wealth Growth and Composition - In 2025, 196 self-made billionaires added $3,865 billion in wealth, second only to 2021's 360 billionaires [2] - The Asia-Pacific region has the highest proportion of self-made billionaires at 79% [2] - The total wealth of Chinese billionaires reached $1.8 trillion, a 22.2% year-on-year increase, with 98% being self-made entrepreneurs [2] Group 2: Investment Trends - North America remains the preferred investment destination, but its attractiveness has decreased, with only 63% of billionaires seeing it as the best opportunity, down from 80% [3] - 40% of billionaires now favor Western Europe for investment opportunities, surpassing Greater China (34%) and other Asia-Pacific regions (33%) [3] - 42% plan to increase exposure to emerging market stocks, while 43% intend to invest more in developed market stocks [3] Group 3: Concerns and Challenges - Billionaires express concerns about tariffs (66%), geopolitical conflicts (63%), and policy uncertainty (59%) [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, 75% worry about tariffs, while 70% in the Americas are concerned about inflation or geopolitical conflicts [4] - 75% of billionaires believe that the younger generation will face significant global challenges, particularly in technology and artificial intelligence [4]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging-market stocks have significantly outperformed U.S. equities in 2025, marking a major surprise in the market landscape [1] Group 1 - Emerging-market stocks have broadly crushed the U.S. equities market this year [1]

格隆汇12月9日｜摩根大通策略师表示，明年新兴市场股票的表现可能会优于发达市场，因为它们的估 值仍然较低，而且应该会受益于较低的仓位以及美元稳定或走弱。"我们确实认为，经过多年的持续表 现落后，新兴市场明年将连续第二年跑赢发达市场，" 驻伦敦的全球及欧洲股票策略主管Mislav Matejka 在新闻发布会上表示。 ...

格隆汇12月9日｜摩根大通：新兴市场将受益于美元走弱或持稳。预计2026年新兴市场股市表现将优于 发达市场。中国人工智能股票比美国同业的价格更优惠。 ...

格隆汇12月4日｜根据Momentum Investments的说法，由于具有吸引力的估值和强劲的利润，南非股市 将在2026年受益于新兴市场的广泛上涨。资产配置主管Herman van Papendorp表示，基本面的改善、预 期的美元走弱以及在特朗普政府下多元化资金流入的结合，可能导致2026年出现"实质性"资金流入。 Papendorp表示，美元走弱和盈利前景改善将使新兴市场股票在2026年继续领先于发达市场同行。在通 胀压力上升的背景下，美联储的降息以及对非常独立性的威胁，可能会在明年推动美元走弱。 Papendorp表示，在本地，南非联合政府的瓦解仍然是关键威胁。 ...

Group 1: Investment Outlook - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that AI-driven innovation will continue to support investor optimism, while global central bank policies, new trade orders, and fiscal risks are creating a complex investment environment [1] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management suggests that disparities in global equity markets may widen, advocating for diversified global equity allocation and a combination of fundamental and quantitative strategies [1] - The report highlights that emerging market stocks have the potential to outperform the global market by 2026, with current forward P/E ratios approximately 40% lower than U.S. stocks, which is below the long-term average [1] Group 2: Private Market Insights - In the private market, Goldman Sachs Asset Management notes a favorable environment for new transactions and exit activities, leading to increased dispersion in private equity fund manager performance [2] - The increase in private market transaction activity will provide limited partners (LPs) with new data to assess the performance of existing and potential managers, aiding in capital allocation decisions [2] - The firm anticipates continued interest from LPs in secondary market investments that are attractive and have shorter durations compared to private equity investments, especially as data science, AI, and automation mature [2]

Group 1: Investment Outlook - The core viewpoint of the report is that AI-driven innovations will continue to support investor optimism, with small-cap stocks expected to grow, and emerging market equities likely to outperform the overall market by 2026 [1] - The "Seven Giants" in the US stock market are expanding their market share due to strong core businesses and strategic reinvestments, which may lay a foundation for future growth [1] - Emerging market stocks are currently trading at a forward P/E ratio approximately 40% lower than US stocks, which is below the long-term average, indicating potential for narrowing this discount due to robust earnings [1] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - Investors need to assess recent macro signals, rising uncertainty regarding US fiscal stability, and the growth prospects of large capital expenditures in the AI sector as they approach 2026 [2] - The main challenge for investors lies in interpreting the intertwined signals, but opportunities still exist for fixed income investors who can actively manage their allocations [2] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise from AI and digitalization, energy production and transmission, changes in global trade patterns, and upgrades to aging infrastructure, particularly in mid-sized markets [2]