本报讯 （记者毛艺融）11月17日，高盛资产管理发布题为"于复杂环境中捕捉新契机"（Seeking Catalysts Amid Complexity）的2026年投资展望报告提到，人工智能驱动的创新将继续支撑投资者的乐 观情绪，而全球央行的政策方向、新的贸易秩序、财政风险等正在共同发挥作用，营造复杂的投资环 境。 高盛报告认为，新兴市场股票2026年有跑赢全球整体市场的可能。目前新兴市场股票的远期市盈率较美 国股票折价约40%，低于长期平均水平。鉴于新兴市场强劲的盈利状况，预计这一折价将收窄。 私募市场方面，高盛资产管理认为，新交易和退出活动整体环境利好，私募股权基金管理人业绩表现的 分散性扩大。私募市场交易活动增加，将为有限合伙人（LP）提供新的数据评估其现有和潜在管理人 的业绩表现，有助于决策其增量资本的分配。普通合伙人（GP）将需要战略性地识别超出整体经济增 长的领域，包括调整地域配置布局。对高增长行业的追求预计将会持续。随着数据科学、人工智能和自 动化不断成熟和加速，有望在更大程度上推动收入增长和提高效率。 高盛资产管理全球经典策略主管表示："展望2026年，高盛预计有限合伙人对具有吸引力、存续期比 ...

Group 1: Investment Outlook - The core viewpoint of the report is that AI-driven innovations will continue to support investor optimism, with small-cap stocks expected to grow, and emerging market equities likely to outperform the overall market by 2026 [1] - The "Seven Giants" in the US stock market are expanding their market share due to strong core businesses and strategic reinvestments, which may lay a foundation for future growth [1] - Emerging market stocks are currently trading at a forward P/E ratio approximately 40% lower than US stocks, which is below the long-term average, indicating potential for narrowing this discount due to robust earnings [1] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - Investors need to assess recent macro signals, rising uncertainty regarding US fiscal stability, and the growth prospects of large capital expenditures in the AI sector as they approach 2026 [2] - The main challenge for investors lies in interpreting the intertwined signals, but opportunities still exist for fixed income investors who can actively manage their allocations [2] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise from AI and digitalization, energy production and transmission, changes in global trade patterns, and upgrades to aging infrastructure, particularly in mid-sized markets [2]

Group 1 - UBS analysts predict that emerging market stocks may continue to outperform US stocks in the first quarter of next year, but returns will slow down thereafter, with annual gains limited to 7% to 9% [1] - The firm maintains an overweight rating on Chinese stocks, favoring China over India, Indonesia over Thailand, and internet stocks over automotive stocks [1] - The report highlights that emerging markets present multiple opportunities, with China being a key overweight for the second consecutive year due to attractive micro and capital flow conditions [1] Group 2 - UBS expects the MSCI Emerging Markets Index earnings to grow by 18% in 2025, followed by growth of 15% and 10% in the subsequent two years, driven by AI [1] - The valuation is above the 10-year average by 0.7 standard deviations, but visibility on growth and lack of yield resistance should help achieve approximately 8% returns in 2026 [1] - On a macro level, UBS believes that the stability of the US dollar may limit broad positive factors for emerging markets, as the market has almost fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market stocks and Chinese stocks appear more attractive in terms of valuation compared to U.S. stocks, which are considered overvalued by the analyst François Rimeu from French mutual credit asset management company [1] Summary by Category Valuation Analysis - U.S. stock valuations have been driven up, leading to limited upside potential even under optimistic earnings forecasts [1] Investment Preference - The company shows a preference for investing in stocks, particularly in emerging markets and Chinese stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market currencies and stocks have reached intraday lows, indicating significant market stress and potential volatility in these regions [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - Emerging market currencies are experiencing a decline, reflecting broader economic challenges and investor sentiment [1] - The depreciation of these currencies may impact trade balances and foreign investment inflows [1] Group 2: Stock Market Trends - Stocks in emerging markets are also hitting new lows, suggesting a bearish outlook among investors [1] - This downturn could lead to increased capital outflows as investors seek safer assets [1]

Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have performed well this year, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising approximately 15% [1] - DWS remains optimistic about the Chinese stock market, despite significant gains since early 2025, while being cautious about the Indian market due to high valuations [1] - DWS anticipates further downward adjustments in corporate earnings for Q2, although technology and financial companies may be less affected [1] Group 2 - European equities are still a preferred choice for DWS, with long-term potential driven by fiscal support and international capital inflows, despite ongoing political and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has recently increased but remains below early 2025 levels, with expectations of a slight rise to around 4.50% by June 2026 [2] - The U.S. dollar has depreciated approximately 13% against the euro, and DWS expects the dollar to remain weak due to the U.S. government's inclination towards a weaker dollar policy [2]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Outlook - The U.S. plans to increase tariffs on imports starting August 1, with a general tariff level similar to the previously announced "reciprocal" tariffs [1] - The assumption for baseline tariff levels remains at 10% for most countries and 25% for key goods, with potential adjustments if higher tariffs are implemented for an extended period [1] - Emerging market stocks have shown strong performance, prompting an upward revision of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index target from 1290 to 1370 points, with a projected 12-month return of 11% [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Laopuhuangjin - Laopuhuangjin expects a significant increase in sales and net profit for the first half of 2025, with projections of 268% and 284% growth, respectively [2] - Key assumptions include a 202% increase in average sales per store and the opening of three new stores, despite a slight decline in gross margin [2] Group 3: Automotive Industry Insights - The Chinese automotive industry anticipates continued government support and subsidies, with no sudden termination expected [4] - Intense competition is expected to persist in the industry over the next 2-3 years, despite government efforts to curb disorderly competition [4] - Automakers with overseas operations have reported strong sales, with local production capacity progressing as planned [4] Group 4: Automotive Technology Developments - There is increasing customer recognition of autonomous driving technology, with accelerated adoption of lidar and in-house developed advanced driver assistance system chips [5] Group 5: Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage and Lanke Technology - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue is projected to grow by 35% in 2025, with net profit growth expected to be between 17%-29% [6] - Lanke Technology anticipates a 52% year-on-year revenue increase in 2025, driven by the ramp-up of DDR5 and third-generation interface chips [7] Group 6: Healthcare Sector Outlook - The CDMO sector is expected to see strong performance, with increased investor interest in CRO/CDMO and medical technology as the 2025 earnings season approaches [8] Group 7: Company Performance - Bilibili - Bilibili's investor day highlighted confidence in achieving above-industry advertising growth, with a focus on game product line improvements and enhanced advertising efficiency [9]

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies declined on Friday due to heightened tensions from U.S. President Trump's trade policies, but are still expected to rise for the fifth consecutive week [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is projected to increase by 0.2% this week, despite a drop on Friday following Trump's threat to impose tariffs as high as 70% on certain trading partners [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index fell by 0.5% on Friday, marking the largest decline in nearly two weeks, yet it maintained weekly gains [1] Group 2 - TSMC and Tencent Holdings were among the stocks that experienced the largest declines [1]

Group 1 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut is increasing, but JPMorgan's London strategy team warns that the underlying reasons for the cut may not be favorable for the stock market, potentially leading to a "wrong type of easing" and triggering market repercussions [1] - JPMorgan strategists identified three possible scenarios for rate cuts: 1) a cut due to significant economic activity slowdown, 2) a resilient economic growth scenario with controlled inflation, and 3) a cut despite some inflation pressure, possibly influenced by the U.S. government [1] - The strategists predict a combination of the first and third scenarios, where economic activity slows but inflation rises, which could lead to investor disappointment [1] Group 2 - Historically, emerging market stocks tend to perform well when the Federal Reserve loosens monetary policy, and JPMorgan has reaffirmed its bullish stance on this sector after a cautious period [2] - In a rate cut environment, sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and technology typically perform better, while industrials and financials may lag [2] - Despite the S&P 500 reaching new highs, its year-to-date gain of 5% is significantly lower than the 21% increase of European stocks [2]

Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have unexpectedly become a significant source of returns for U.S. traders during the volatility of the S&P 500 index caused by President Trump's trade war [1] - The Cboe volatility index (VIX) has been higher than the Cboe emerging markets ETF volatility index for 48 out of the past 54 trading days, indicating increased investor interest in emerging markets to mitigate risks [1] - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has risen by 14% year-to-date, marking the largest excess return relative to the S&P 500 since 2009 [1] Group 2 - Speculators are preparing for potential increased volatility in emerging markets as the 90-day "tariff pause" initiated by the Trump administration is set to expire [4] - The number of put options open contracts relative to call options for the emerging markets ETF is nearing its highest level since December of the previous year [4] - Market strategist Matt Maley anticipates a short-term pullback in emerging market stocks relative to the S&P 500 index [4] Group 3 - Positive developments in trade negotiations could boost the S&P 500 index, as significant progress has been reported in talks with China [7] - Investors are pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, hoping that Trump's tax cuts will drive corporate earnings and domestic economic growth [7] - The current upward momentum in the U.S. stock market may diminish the relative advantage of emerging markets, with the S&P 500 nearing historical highs [7] Group 4 - A weaker dollar may continue to benefit emerging markets, as their stock valuations remain cheaper compared to U.S. stocks [7] - Matt Maley suggests that emerging market stocks may be available at more attractive prices in late June [7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has become a stabilizing force for emerging market assets, with varying outcomes expected from trade negotiations across the 24 countries covered by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index [7]