Core Viewpoint - Long-term investors need to deeply interpret the direction of the reshaping world order and weigh the cost-effectiveness of various assets, as two key variables (Deepseek and reciprocal tariffs) have further strengthened the underlying logic of a new investment paradigm [1] Group 1: U.S. Recession Trading - The initiation of recession trading often leads the actual declaration of recession by the NBER by an average of 1-6 months [1] - Typical characteristics of U.S. recession trading include declines in U.S. stocks and industrial metals, a decrease in 10Y U.S. Treasury yields, widening U.S. credit spreads, and defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks [1] Group 2: Asset Volatility During Recession Trading - Historical data shows that asset volatility increases during U.S. recession trading phases, with risk assets experiencing a greater increase in volatility compared to safe-haven assets [2] - Specifically, the volatility amplification factor for risk assets (e.g., Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index) is greater than that for safe-haven assets (e.g., gold, U.S. Treasuries, Chinese bonds, A-share dividends) [2] Group 3: All-Weather Strategy Model - Investors need to focus on the asymmetric pricing risks in their portfolios, particularly the underestimation of U.S. recession risks [3] - The ranking of volatility amplification factors for various assets during past U.S. recession trading periods is as follows: Nasdaq > India SENSEX30 > Hang Seng Tech > U.S. Treasuries > Gold > Chinese bonds > Bitcoin > A-share dividends [3] - Adjustments to asset allocation based on corrected volatility factors indicate an increase in weight for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing weight for Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for global asset allocation strategies centered around three main factors: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [1][2] - The proposed investment strategy is a "global barbell strategy," which includes stable assets on one end and high-yield, high-volatility assets on the other [1][2] - The current global economic uncertainty necessitates a focus on asymmetric pricing opportunities within various asset classes [2][3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the U.S. trade policy is unlikely to reverse the three underlying logics of the new investment paradigm, potentially increasing global political and economic uncertainty [2] - The recommendation includes a focus on defensive sectors in response to potential U.S. economic recession risks, alongside the necessity of gold as a sovereign credit asset [3] - The domestic market is currently in a debt contraction phase, transitioning from "passive leverage" to "active deleveraging," suggesting that domestic interest rate bonds hold long-term investment value [4] Group 3 - The "barbell strategy" is also applicable to strategic asset allocation in China, with a continued positive outlook on interest rate bonds and a focus on dividend assets and AI technology [4] - The AI sector, particularly represented by the "Tech Seven Sisters" in the U.S. market, has shown strong performance, but significant investment risks are present this year [4] - Recommended sectors include resilient dividend assets such as utilities, telecommunications, and banking, as well as industries benefiting from the AI trend, particularly those in the infrastructure to downstream application transition [4]

Introduction - The article discusses the "new investment paradigm" and highlights the ongoing restructuring of the global order, driven by unconventional methods to address the current global supply-demand imbalance [3][9]. Strategic Level - Global asset pricing significantly underestimates the risk of a U.S. recession, with a notable divergence in investor sentiment regarding the U.S. economy [3][18]. - The current market is seen as having a substantial mispricing of recession risks, particularly in U.S. assets, suggesting that a "recession trade" could be a favorable asymmetric trading strategy [3][52]. - The article emphasizes the need for long-term investors to deeply understand the direction of the global order's restructuring and to assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets [22][51]. Tactical Level - Short-term sentiment in global risk assets, particularly U.S. equities, is perceived to be overstretched, following a significant rebound catalyzed by tariff easing [5][53]. - Indicators such as the VIX futures returning to a contango state and the BNP global risk premium index reaching historical lows suggest high market sentiment but also an accumulation of risk [5][56]. - The article advises a contrarian approach to U.S. equity allocation, focusing on defensive sectors in the short term while monitoring developments in negotiations with key global players [5][64]. Macro Trading Background - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury yields expected to remain high for an extended period, Chinese bond yields expected to remain low, and an elevation in the global risk premium [3][13]. - The article outlines the implications of these macroeconomic factors on global asset correlations and volatility, indicating a potential long-term disruption to existing asset allocation frameworks [13][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the irreversible logic behind the restructuring of the global order and the new investment paradigm, driven by unconventional policies from the Trump administration to address global supply and demand imbalances [3][4][14]. Group 1: Globalization and G2 Imbalances - The globalization process has intensified the trade, production, and debt imbalances between the G2 nations, with the U.S. positioned as the largest consumer and China as the largest producer [9][13]. - Since China's accession to the WTO in 2001, the U.S. has increasingly relied on debt expansion to create demand, leading to continuous trade deficits and external debt accumulation, while China has maintained a trade surplus through its manufacturing capabilities [9][13]. - As major economies move away from high growth, the importance of "efficiency" is yielding to "distribution," indicating a long-term trend towards increased de-globalization [9][13]. Group 2: Restructuring Global Order - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" aims to reshape global trade and monetary order through tariffs and the restructuring of U.S. debt, addressing long-standing trade and fiscal deficits while enhancing U.S. export competitiveness [4][11][23]. - Although the full implementation of the Mar-a-Lago Agreement faces significant challenges, understanding its implications is crucial for anticipating future policy directions from the Trump administration [4][11][23]. Group 3: New Investment Paradigm - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury yields remaining "higher for longer," Chinese bond yields remaining "lower for longer," and an increase in global risk premium [5][12][25]. - The ongoing trend of de-globalization and isolationist policies under Trump will exacerbate uncertainties in global economic growth and inflation, reinforcing the underlying logic of the new investment paradigm [5][12][25]. - The elevation of the global risk premium will significantly affect the correlation between major asset classes and increase the volatility of global assets, fundamentally altering the existing global asset allocation framework [5][12][25][33].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the restructuring of the global order is an irreversible underlying logic, driven by unconventional methods to address the current global supply and demand imbalance [3][4][14] - It highlights the increasing imbalance in trade, production, and debt between the G2 countries, with the U.S. as the largest consumer and China as the largest producer [9][13] - The article discusses the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which aims to reshape global trade and monetary order to alleviate the U.S.'s long-standing current account and fiscal deficits [11][23] Group 2 - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury rates being "higher for longer," Chinese bond rates being "lower for longer," and an increase in global risk premium [5][12][32] - The article suggests that the ongoing trend of de-globalization will significantly disrupt the existing global asset allocation framework [9][13][33] - It notes that the U.S. reliance on debt expansion has led to continuous current account deficits and manufacturing hollowing out, while China benefits from a persistent trade surplus [9][13]

01 再创新高，黄金近期为何大涨？ 回顾黄金的定价框架： ①金融属性：10Y美债实际利率作为持有黄金的机会成本，与黄金价格显 著负相关。②避险属性：金融、经济、地缘政治出现大幅波动或危机时往往提升黄金避险需求，带来 风险溢价。③货币属性：黄金对美元体系有一定的替代性，美元信用削弱将利好黄金。 自我们24年初提示黄金配置机会以来，金价屡创新高！ 近期，由于市场对美国经济前景的担忧日 益加剧，特别是随着特朗普政府可能实施的破坏性贸易政策引发市场不确定性，黄金作为避险资产的 需求显著增加。 戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 法律声明 请向下滑动参见广发证券股份有限公司有关微信推送内容的完整 详见：24.3.1 《 债务周期下的资产配置-避险资产篇——"债务周期大局观"系列（四） 》 24.7.17《 金价再创新高，还有上车机会吗？》 24.9.13 《 黄金、利率债双双新高之际 》 24.10.23 《 金价再创新高，坚定"黄金信仰"！ 》 25.1.31 《戴康：黄金为何是新投资范式的基石配置 ？ 》 25.3.15 《戴康：黄金破3000之 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, driven by increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid growing concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and potential disruptive trade policies from the Trump administration [3][7] - The pricing framework of gold is outlined, highlighting its financial attributes, safe-haven characteristics, and monetary properties, particularly its inverse relationship with the 10-year U.S. Treasury real interest rates [3] - Since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have consistently reached new highs, indicating a strong market sentiment towards gold as a protective investment [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for further increases in gold prices, suggesting that gold functions as a sovereign credit asset and a non-interest-bearing bond, which is reinforced by geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. debt issues [7] - The ongoing demand from central banks for gold is expected to support its price in the medium to long term, as the erosion of U.S. dollar credit continues [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on global assets and the shift from a "great moderation" to a "great volatility" in the global economy, emphasizing the need for investors to adapt their strategies accordingly [3][4]. Short-term Outlook - Investors are advised to focus on safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries, Chinese bonds, Swiss francs, gold, and dividend stocks before the implementation of tariffs on April 9 [4]. - Current market indicators suggest a decline in risk appetite, and liquidity metrics should be closely monitored for potential trading opportunities [4]. - Specific asset class assessments indicate that global equities and commodities remain under pressure, while U.S. equities are weak and U.S. Treasuries are strong, reflecting a preference for safety over inflation concerns [4]. Medium to Long-term Outlook - The tariffs reinforce three underlying logics of a new investment paradigm: the intensification of de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry [5]. - The article suggests maintaining a balanced allocation of safe-haven assets to manage risk and return effectively, as the global economic landscape continues to evolve [5]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "All Weather Strategy" outlines different asset allocation percentages based on risk preferences, with a notable emphasis on Chinese government bonds and gold across varying risk profiles [7]. - For low-risk preference, the allocation includes 34.18% in Chinese government bonds and 8.51% in COMEX gold, while for high-risk preference, it suggests 14.16% in Chinese government bonds and 11.75% in gold [7].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 我们在25.2.28 《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示，港股周线6连阳后，短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆。 从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨，反而应关注落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子。 ● 部分投资者仍然对"新投资范式"认识不足，对特朗普关税的底层逻辑存在误解。 疫情以来，全球从"大缓和"走 向"大波动"，G2在生产贸易（中国生产国VS美国消费国）、债务（中国私人高VS美国政府高）失衡突出，特朗 普政府企图通过非常规手段化解全球供给与需求失衡，世界秩序重塑不可逆。 ● 特朗普关税对全球资产的影响？ 关税一阶段定价征税国家的"通胀效应"+被征税国家的"需求收缩效应"、二阶 段定价被征税国家的应对措施（货币财政）。 ● 短期而言：在4.9（对等关税生效日期）前，以避险资产（美债&中债、瑞郎、黄金、红利等）为宜。 当前关键 问题除了关注各国之间的贸易谈判，在金融市场上还要关注基本面的问题是否会转换成流动性的问题。当前， （VIX、AAII熊牛价差、BNP全球风险溢价等指标显示）风险偏好下 ...