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 国投证券:9月大盘指数将继续维持强势 | 华宝3A日报(2025.9.19)
 Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-19 09:27
 Group 1 - The market capitalization of the two exchanges reached 2.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of 81.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] - The number of stocks that rose and fell in the market was 19,091, with 3,403 stocks rising and 115 stocks falling [2] - The top three industries with net capital inflow were public transportation, media, and environmental protection, with a total inflow of 3.36 billion yuan [2]   Group 2 - Guotou Securities predicts that the market index will continue to maintain strength in September, indicating that the bull market has not ended [3] - The index has reached a level that aligns with the expectations for the current liquidity-driven bull market, with the market currently in a "bull tail" phase [3] - Future upward movement in the index is contingent upon the gradual realization of the "three bulls" (liquidity bull, fundamental bull, and transformation bull) over the next year [3]   Group 3 - Huabao Fund has gathered the three major broad-based ETFs tracking the CSI A series, providing investors with diverse options to invest in China [5] - The A50 ETF tracks the CSI A50 Index, offering a straightforward investment approach for market participants [5]
 3899.96→3801,沪指近百点巨震!发生了什么?谁在“压盘”?
 Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 07:47
每经记者|肖芮冬 每经编辑|赵云 9月18日,三大指数冲高快速回落。截至收盘,沪指跌1.15%,深成指跌1.06%,创业板指跌1.64%。 板块方面,旅游、CPO、芯片产业链等板块涨幅居前,多数板块下跌,有色金属、大金融、稀土永磁等板块 跌幅居前。 全市场超4600只个股下跌。沪深两市成交额3.135万亿元,较上一个交易日放量7584亿元,创年内第三。 今天,你傻眼了吗? 早间沪指最高涨至3899.96点,创出近期新高,无限接近3900点关口。 但午后开盘,沪指持续回落,最低跌至3801点,几乎回吐上周四的涨幅。 午后,大金融方向跌幅扩大,也抑制了科技线的做多情绪,导致三大指数纷纷跳水翻绿,沪指跌至5日线下 方。 结合昨日中信证券、国泰海通等龙头券商尾盘出现巨额压单的情况(详情参阅),给人的感觉就像是—— 有资金在借助大金融板块"控盘",即抑制指数上涨的节奏。 我们的小伙伴"道达号"昨日提到,从本轮行情来看,券商股还没有走出主升浪,扮演的是指数节奏调节器的 角色。 值得玩味的是,这一段上涨基本由沪市(含科创板)的科技股贡献;通常被认为"支撑"沪指的银行、红利甚 至证券板块,反而在"拖后腿"。 | 上证指数 1 ...
 谁能再顶起来?
 Guotou Securities· 2025-09-14 11:37
 Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a liquidity-driven "bull market," with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing strong performance, particularly in small-cap stocks and growth styles [1][20][33] - The report emphasizes that the current market is in a "slow bull" phase transitioning to a "fast bull," but warns against the potential for an unsustainable "crazy bull" market [1][33] - The report highlights the importance of the "three bulls" (liquidity bull, fundamental bull, and new/old momentum transition bull) for the market's future performance [1][33]   Group 2 - The report notes that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, which is seen as a preventive measure rather than a response to recession [2][3] - It is anticipated that the Fed's rate cut will benefit non-US assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, and that there are no significant domestic stimulus policies expected to follow the rate cut [2][3] - The report discusses the potential impact of political changes within the Fed, which could affect monetary policy decisions and market dynamics [3]   Group 3 - The report suggests that the recent inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks is significant, with nearly 1 trillion yuan accumulated this year, primarily directed towards internet and automotive sectors [5][24][34] - It highlights that the performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to improve, as it has lagged behind the ChiNext Index, indicating a potential for catch-up [4][34] - The report also mentions that the earnings forecasts for the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index have been revised upward, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [5][52][54]   Group 4 - The report identifies a trend of increasing foreign investment in Chinese assets, with a notable shift from "not paying attention" to "increasing allocation" [5][47][49] - It emphasizes that the current valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is lower compared to the ChiNext Index, suggesting a potential for relative outperformance [39][45] - The report points out that the liquidity tightening in Hong Kong has had a significant impact on the market, but the anticipated Fed rate cuts may alleviate some of these pressures [46][35]
 A股三大股指震荡低收:半导体板块涨势喜人,有色板块全天强势
 Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 07:29
A股三大股指9月12日开盘涨跌互现。沪指盘初突破前期高点再创阶段性新高,并带动跌幅超1%的创指翻红。午 前急跌被快速拉回后,再度遭遇抛压,三大股指低收。 从盘面上看,存储芯片、ASIC芯片概念午后大涨,有色板块全天强势,医药、影视、地产股盘中活跃;PEEK 材料、玻纤、白酒、银行表现疲软。 至收盘,上证综指跌0.12%,报3870.6点;科创50指数涨0.9%,报1338.02点;深证成指跌0.43%,报12924.13 点;创业板指跌1.09%,报3020.42点。 Wind统计显示,两市及北交所共1926只股票上涨,3370只股票下跌,平盘有130只股票。 有色金属领涨两市,电工合金(300697)、盛达资源(000603)、豫光金铅(600531)、北方铜业 (000737)、株冶集团(600961)、湖南白银(002716)等涨停或涨超10%,中孚实业(600595)、云南铜业 (000878)等涨超7%。 房地产涨幅居前,香江控股(600162)、荣盛发展(002146)、新大正(002968)、首开股份(600376)、南 都物业(603506)、苏宁环球(000718)、华夏幸福(600340) ...
 水牛摆尾
 Guotou Securities· 2025-09-07 12:03
 Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a significant increase of over 45% since the 924 market rally, and nearly 25% since the April low [1][2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between liquidity-driven and fundamental-driven market phases, suggesting that the current market is still in the liquidity-driven phase, awaiting confirmation from fundamental improvements [2][3][4] - The report highlights that the growth style is outperforming the value style, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.35% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18% [1][18]   Group 2 - The report notes that the upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to weaken the dollar, potentially leading to a shift of capital from dollar assets to non-dollar assets, which could benefit the A-share market [2][3] - It mentions that the recent recovery in the PMI index and narrowing decline in industrial profits indicate some resilience in the economy, but the demand side remains constrained [2][3][4] - The report suggests that the current market structure is favoring mid-cap assets, with a shift from high-dividend stocks to growth sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary [3][4][31]   Group 3 - The report identifies that the inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks has accelerated, with a total inflow of 941.7 billion yuan since the beginning of 2025, indicating strong interest in growth sectors like internet and automotive [21][28] - It highlights that the current high-cut low market index is approaching a peak, suggesting an increased likelihood of a rebound in previously underperforming sectors [67][68] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of the ChiNext and technology sectors, which have shown significant gains and are expected to continue leading the market [36][39][42]
 A股午后指阔步上扬,沪指收盘憾失3700点:超4600股收涨,两市成交连续3日破2万亿
 Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 07:20
 Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on August 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3696.77 points, down 0.83% from the previous day [1] - The market saw a total trading volume of 22,446 billion yuan, a decrease of 346 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3]   Sector Performance - Brokerage stocks led the market rally, with significant gains in non-bank financials, including stocks like Dongfang Fortune and Changcheng Securities reaching their daily limit [4] - The electric equipment sector also saw a surge, with over ten stocks hitting the daily limit or rising more than 10% [4] - Conversely, bank stocks faced notable declines, with major banks like CITIC Bank and China Everbright Bank dropping over 2% [5]   Technical Analysis - Financial analysts suggest that the A-share market's upward trend remains intact, with major indices staying above their five-day moving averages [6] - There is a potential for market volatility due to the upcoming earnings reports, which may impact market dynamics [6] - Analysts from Huatai Securities indicate that while liquidity is driving the market higher, there is a need for consolidation before a sustainable breakthrough above the 3700-point mark can occur [7]   Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience a "three-headed bull" scenario, characterized by short-term liquidity-driven gains, medium-term fundamental improvements, and long-term transitions in economic drivers [7] - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting is anticipated to provide insights into future monetary policy directions, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7]






