2025 年 09 月 07 日 水牛摆尾 本周上证指数跌 1.18%，沪深 300 跌 0.81%，创业板指涨 2.35%，恒生指数涨 1.36%。 成长风格表现强于价值风格。过程中，本周全 A 日均交易额 26032 亿，量能环比小 幅萎缩，上证综指波动中 3800 点失而复得。 客观而言，一方面我们也认可"牛市 并未结束"，但另一方面，我们也强调"盲目参考 14-15 年模式，导致慢牛转快牛 甚至形成疯牛实则不可取"，区别点在于本轮增量资金底色更多来自由债转股的再 均衡，此类资金对估值与基本面匹配性有较高要求，并坚定认为：在当前点位向上 空间进一步打开还是有赖于"三头牛"在未来一年的逐步兑现。事实上，我们反复 强调：自 924 行情以来上证综指涨幅超过 45%，自 4 月黄金坑以来涨幅接近 25%，站 上 3800 点已基本符合我们对于本轮流动性牛市的心理预期，因此本周市场出现波 动，并不出乎我们意料，并后续持以跟踪态度，眼下对于短期大盘指数进一步向上 空间已经难以合理预估。 面向 9 月，我们此前提出：A 股大盘指数仍会在"银行搭台，多方唱戏"下维持高 位强势震荡。同时，我们在紧密跟踪大盘指数进一步向 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on August 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3696.77 points, down 0.83% from the previous day [1] - The market saw a total trading volume of 22,446 billion yuan, a decrease of 346 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3] Sector Performance - Brokerage stocks led the market rally, with significant gains in non-bank financials, including stocks like Dongfang Fortune and Changcheng Securities reaching their daily limit [4] - The electric equipment sector also saw a surge, with over ten stocks hitting the daily limit or rising more than 10% [4] - Conversely, bank stocks faced notable declines, with major banks like CITIC Bank and China Everbright Bank dropping over 2% [5] Technical Analysis - Financial analysts suggest that the A-share market's upward trend remains intact, with major indices staying above their five-day moving averages [6] - There is a potential for market volatility due to the upcoming earnings reports, which may impact market dynamics [6] - Analysts from Huatai Securities indicate that while liquidity is driving the market higher, there is a need for consolidation before a sustainable breakthrough above the 3700-point mark can occur [7] Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience a "three-headed bull" scenario, characterized by short-term liquidity-driven gains, medium-term fundamental improvements, and long-term transitions in economic drivers [7] - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting is anticipated to provide insights into future monetary policy directions, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7]