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碳酸锂的新叙事:真正的需求海啸来自“储能”
鑫椤储能· 2025-10-30 06:47
Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the real demand surge for lithium carbonate is coming from the energy storage sector, rather than electric vehicles, marking a significant shift in market dynamics [1][71]. - By 2026, energy storage is projected to surpass electric vehicles as the largest source of lithium carbonate demand, with an annual demand ceiling potentially reaching 1,000 GWh [1][42]. Energy Storage Demand - Energy storage accounted for 40.3% of battery cell production in October 2025, indicating a rapid growth trajectory [3][6]. - The share of energy storage battery cells has increased from 23.8% in June 2025 to 40.3% by October 2025, showcasing a strong and stable growth trend [3][6]. - The total shipment of energy storage cells is expected to reach 1,200 GWh in 2026, officially surpassing that of power batteries [6][42]. Price Dynamics - The prices of photovoltaic components and energy storage systems have experienced dramatic declines, with photovoltaic module prices dropping by 70.5% from their peak [9][10]. - Energy storage systems saw a price drop of 75.13%, significantly enhancing their economic viability [9][10]. - The price collapse has led to a surge in photovoltaic installations, with China adding 725.88 GW of capacity in just two and a half years, which is 1.85 times the total installed capacity as of the end of 2022 [10][11]. Market Structure Changes - The article discusses the transition from a "first parity" era to a "second parity" era, where energy storage and renewable energy sources become economically competitive with traditional energy sources [12][14]. - The integration of energy storage is essential for stabilizing the grid as renewable energy sources like solar and wind become more prevalent [11][12]. Supply and Demand Gap - A significant supply-demand gap for lithium carbonate is anticipated to emerge between 2025 and 2026 due to the explosive growth in energy storage demand and a slowdown in supply growth [2][37]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to reach 205,000 tons LCE in 2026, a 35% increase from 2025, while supply growth is projected to be only around 10% [45][66]. Future Projections - By 2045, the global energy storage demand could reach between 160,000 GWh and 240,000 GWh, indicating a massive potential market for energy storage solutions [34][33]. - The article posits that the energy storage sector is just beginning its growth phase, with significant opportunities ahead as the energy landscape evolves [35][26].
赋能新农村 畅享新出行——2025年新能源汽车下乡首站暨江苏如皋站启幕
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-17 03:24
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 New Energy Vehicle (NEV) rural outreach initiative was successfully launched in Rugao, Jiangsu, aiming to enhance rural transportation and promote the adoption of NEVs through a collaborative effort among various government departments and industry associations [2][4][11]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was organized by multiple government bodies including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, among others [4]. - The launch featured over 190 vehicles, covering a wide range of needs from personal transportation to agricultural production, addressing the "travel demand list" of rural residents [11][13]. - The initiative aims to create a comprehensive ecosystem for vehicle purchase and usage, including charging solutions and customized financial services, ensuring accessibility and affordability for rural consumers [13]. Group 2: Industry Impact - Since the inception of the NEV rural outreach program in 2020, over 500 vehicle models have been recommended, with cumulative sales nearing 15 million units, indicating strong rural consumption growth [16]. - The NEV sector has seen a recovery in production and sales, exceeding 30 million units annually for the past two years, contributing significantly to economic stability and job creation [18]. - Jiangsu province has actively participated in the outreach activities, establishing a robust infrastructure that supports NEV consumption across all towns, serving as a model for other regions [18]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The initiative is expected to continue expanding across the country, driven by rural revitalization and carbon reduction goals, with plans for further outreach events to meet consumer needs [31]. - The event highlighted the integration of traditional culture and modern technology, showcasing a new vision for rural development that combines NEVs with cultural heritage and digital advancements [11][15].
夹缝中的独苗:特斯拉与宁德时代的 “美国工厂”
晚点LatePost· 2025-04-24 12:40
高额关税、政策变动,新能源普及的挑战不再是技术或者商业。 文 丨 李梓楠 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 2023 年 5 月,世界是一副大病修复的模样。中国正在经历短暂的报复性消费,一度被疫情打断的中美 高级官员会晤和企业家互访逐渐恢复。特斯拉 CEO 马斯克在那个月底来到北京,被至少三位部长单 独接待。 特斯拉是中美合作的典范,上海工厂让特斯拉成为万亿美元科技巨头,也带动中国供应链做出电动车 的诸多工程最优解。当时最新展出的特斯拉人形机器人里,关键零件的供应名单上列着一批中国公 司。仅仅在两年前,即便相互之间存在诸多不信任,世界上最大的两个经济体依然在一些领域探索更 深入的合作。 在北京,马斯克还和当时的特斯拉二号人物,负责中国和北美业务的高级副总裁朱晓彤一起见了宁德 时代董事长曾毓群。宁德时代建议双方通过技术授权方式合作在美国建厂造电池。 当时,拜登政府补贴美国本土新能源产业的《通胀削减法案》刚开始生效,特斯拉从宁德时代进口的 电池享受不到政府补贴,每辆美国产标准续航版 Model 3 会少 3750 美元的补贴。 特斯拉和宁德时代找了一个灵活的合作方式。宁德时代不在美国工厂持有股份,而是取技术授权 ...