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华源晨会-20250603
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-06-03 14:01
Group 1: Pet Economy - The pet economy in China has been growing steadily, with the market size for urban pet consumption increasing from 170.8 billion RMB in 2018 to 300.2 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.86% [2][6] - The pet food sector remains the primary market, with online market concentration (CR10) at only 33.7% in 2024, indicating a fragmented competitive landscape where domestic brands are gaining traction [2][6] - Companies like Lusi Co. and Haineng Technology are highlighted as key players in the pet industry chain, with Lusi focusing on meat snacks and expanding its overseas production capacity [2][6] Group 2: Autonomous Driving - The autonomous driving market in China is expected to reach nearly 450 billion RMB by 2025, with companies like Xiaoma Zhixing collaborating with public transport groups to commercialize self-driving technology [2][17] - The transition to L3+ level intelligent driving is underway, with significant investments in autonomous vehicle trials and applications across various sectors, including logistics and public transport [17][18] - The market for unmanned vehicles is expanding, with 11 companies identified in the North Exchange's autonomous vehicle industry chain, indicating a robust growth trajectory [17][19] Group 3: Media and Digital Assets - Hong Kong's introduction of the Stablecoin Bill is a significant step towards establishing itself as a digital finance hub, which may enhance the internationalization of the RMB and support offshore financial activities [10][11] - The upcoming summer film season is anticipated to boost box office performance, with several key films scheduled for release, highlighting the importance of quality content in driving industry growth [10][12] Group 4: Green Energy - The introduction of green electricity direct supply policies is expected to lower electricity costs for businesses and enhance carbon emission recognition, particularly benefiting export-oriented enterprises [23][24] - The policy allows for a more flexible supply model, which could accelerate the development of offshore wind energy projects in coastal regions [24][26] - Companies in the green energy sector, such as Shaoneng Co. and Yinxing Energy, are recommended for their potential to benefit from stable electricity demand through long-term contracts [27][28] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry - The Chinese innovative drug sector is experiencing significant growth, with a record high of 519 billion USD in license-out transactions in 2024, indicating increasing global recognition of domestic pharmaceutical companies [29][31] - The number of original research drugs entering clinical trials in China has surpassed that in the US, with 704 drugs reported in 2024, showcasing the country's growing capabilities in drug development [31][32] - Companies like Hengrui Medicine and Warner Pharmaceuticals are highlighted as key players in the innovative drug space, with strong potential for future growth [29][34] Group 6: Transportation and Logistics - The logistics industry is undergoing rapid transformation with the integration of artificial intelligence, as evidenced by the National Postal Administration's push for AI applications in postal services [36] - The introduction of new unmanned logistics vehicles, such as the E6 model by Jiushi Intelligent, is expected to lower operational costs and enhance delivery efficiency [36]
A股缩量成交11392亿,两市突然下跌原因是什么,节后会怎么走?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 10:12
Market Overview - The market experienced a decline with all three major indices closing lower, and over 4,100 stocks falling [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 1.1392 trillion, a decrease of 46.2 billion from the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.96% [1] Sector Performance - **Innovative Drug Sector**: This sector showed resilience with significant gains due to the approval of 11 innovative drugs by the National Medical Products Administration and positive clinical data presented at the ASCO conference, with 71 original research results selected for presentation [2] - **Livestock Sector**: The livestock sector also performed well, driven by improved demand and a limited increase in pig supply due to losses in piglets. The domestic demand for pork remained strong despite the seasonal downturn [2] - **Banking Sector**: Bank stocks became active as predictions indicated a potential asymmetric interest rate cut on deposits, which could lower banks' funding costs and positively impact net interest margins, thereby enhancing profitability [2] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The recent decline in the market is attributed to changes in U.S. tariff policies and significant selling pressure from above, which hindered index rebounds [1] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies continues to create a risk-averse environment in the A-share market, with expectations of further adjustments post-holiday [2]
有机构说茅台会腰斩
猫笔刀· 2024-07-30 14:14
7连跌的茅台登上了热股榜首,股价创了22个月新低。2022年10月份的时候曾经也跌破过1400,当时市场对三季报存在疑虑,结果茅台的业绩打碎了质 疑,股价也迅速反弹。 相比之下这一次的情况要复杂的多,消费市场整体萎靡,茅台在二级市场上的价格经历了一轮急跌,散装单瓶飞天最低探至2080,虽然之后通过减少投放 等措施稳住了价格,但市场还是信心还是有些摇摇欲坠。 然后就是昨天瑞银的研报又推了一把,核心观点是2024-2025年的年复合增长率将从19%下降到8%,由于前几年一直在扩产能,高端白酒未来一年半的零 售压力大,并悲观预测2025年底茅台和五粮液的批发价可能下跌50%和17%,直到2026年企稳。 -50%的预测给我看懵了,茅台批发价跌到1200左右?瑞银是认真的吗?如是,则股价必定会跌破1000元,甚至要到600-700附近。我觉得这个预测过于激 进。 跌回2018年的平台?贵州茅台成为下一个光伏或者锂矿?我没有看的那么空,但经历过这几年的事情后也不敢斩钉截铁的说不可能。 茅台现在是ttmpe是22倍,分红率2.24%,有人说买茅台拿分红比银行利息强,静态的算是这么回事,但前提还是茅台的价格不能跌。否则营收 ...
fight ! fight ! fight !
猫笔刀· 2024-07-14 14:17
今天最大的新闻肯定是特朗普在宾州的演讲中遇刺。杀手在安全区外大概200米出头的一个棚子上举枪射击,使用的武器是ar-15自动步枪,一共射出8发 子弹。 这个ar-15还有另一个更熟悉的名字,m16步枪(民用版),玩过绝地求生或者和平精英的人肯定有印象,只能点射,不能连发,所以是半自动步枪。游戏 里这把武器很不好用,只适合初期过度,99.99%的玩家后面都会抛弃他。它不是专业的狙击枪,射击精度不是很高,用这把枪打200米的目标,在游戏里 都属于抽奖的难度,现实中更别提了。 这8发子弹无一直接命中特朗普,但其中1颗打碎了提词器,弹射出来的玻璃碎片割伤了特朗普的右耳,导致右边的脸上流出了鲜血。 枪手事发后被迅速击毙,美网上公布了图像,让人无语的是他的穿着和刺杀安倍晋三的那位十分相像,所以现在连刺客都要统一着装么。除了他以外现场 还有一名观众被子弹击中身亡,所以警方通报这起事件中一共死了2人。 至于特朗普,受伤后第一时间卧倒并被保镖团团围住,确认他没有生命危险后保镖们试图将其带离现场,但这个时候可以很清晰的听到特朗普说了三声 wait wait wait(等等等),然后就看到他站起来,冲着人群挥舞拳头,大喊了三遍fi ...