Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's intention to resign introduces new variables for the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, with the market expecting the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged at 0.5% [1] - A survey of 50 economists indicates that all predict the interest rate will remain stable, while officials are assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs on both domestic and international economies [1][4] - Over one-third of respondents anticipate a potential rate hike to 0.75% in October, depending on the stance of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Group 2 - Despite political instability, Bank of Japan officials believe a rate hike could still occur by the end of the year if economic data meets expectations, supported by strong GDP and inflation indicators [4] - The resignation of Ishiba increases political uncertainty, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lacking a majority in both houses of parliament, potentially delaying the rate hike if a new leader, such as Sanae Takaichi, is elected [7] - Historical coordination between the Bank of Japan and the government shows that policy disagreements can lead to conflicts, but concerns have eased since the large-scale easing in 2013 [7] Group 3 - The U.S. economic slowdown could pressure Japanese corporate profits and wage growth, disrupting the positive inflation cycle [7] - The potential for U.S. interest rate cuts directly influences the yen's value, with rapid appreciation harming corporate profits and excessive depreciation raising import inflation [7] - The upcoming policy statement from the Bank of Japan is expected to remain largely unchanged, with Governor Ueda's press conference being a focal point for market reactions [7][8] Group 4 - A majority of observers believe that Ueda leans dovish when maintaining rates and hawkish when considering a rate hike, with an important speech scheduled for October 3 that may indicate future actions [8] - Nomura's chief strategist suggests that the next rate hike could occur as early as December, with January being the baseline scenario, as the urgency for action from the Bank of Japan has decreased [9]

Core Viewpoint - As of August 12, the Japanese yen has depreciated against most major currencies, with notable movements against the Hong Kong dollar and British pound [1]. Currency Movements - The Hong Kong dollar has seen the largest depreciation against the Japanese yen, down by 0.1929% [1]. - The British pound has appreciated against the Japanese yen, increasing by 0.3068% [1]. - The US dollar closed at 147.8595 yen, down by 0.1974%, but has accumulated a rise of 0.1955% over the past five trading days [1].

Core Insights - The US dollar against the Japanese yen fell by 2.23% to 147.36 yen, with a weekly decline of 0.21% [1] - The trading range for the dollar-yen pair was between 150.92 and 147.30 yen during the period from July 28 to August 1 [1] - The euro against the yen decreased by 0.70% to 170.88 yen, with a cumulative weekly drop of 1.49% [1] - The British pound against the yen dropped by 1.66% to 195.786 yen, with a weekly decline of 1.40% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to announce his resignation by the end of August, leading to fluctuations in the financial markets, including a short-term decline in the yen and an increase in the Nikkei 225 index [1] Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index has seen a significant increase, rising over 3% and surpassing the 41,000 point mark [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a short-term increase, with the dollar rising by 60 points to reach a high of 147.14, reflecting a daily gain of 0.26% [1]