Core Viewpoint - The article argues that retirement investment should not solely focus on low-risk assets like bank deposits, as this can lead to a gradual erosion of purchasing power due to inflation. Instead, it advocates for including volatile equity assets in the investment portfolio to achieve better long-term returns [1][3][12]. Group 1: Inflation and Purchasing Power - The "real inflation rate" indicator, derived from the difference between the growth rate of broad money supply (M2) and GDP growth, reveals the reality of monetary overexpansion [2]. - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from 2014 to 2025, China's real inflation rate fluctuates between 0.4% and 8.7%, with median and average values at 4.3% and 4.0% respectively. At a moderate inflation rate of 4%, 1 million yuan will lose purchasing power to approximately 330,000 yuan in 30 years [3][5]. - Relying solely on low-risk savings products makes it difficult for retirement funds to withstand this gradual erosion of purchasing power, which is a significant threat to retirement investments [3][12]. Group 2: Equity Assets and Long-term Growth - Equity assets, such as stock funds, while exhibiting high short-term volatility, possess two irreplaceable characteristics for long-term investment: they are deeply tied to corporate profit growth and can achieve long-term appreciation through compounding effects [5][12]. - Historical data supports this notion, with Jeremy Siegel's research indicating that from 1802 to 2012, the inflation-adjusted annualized return of the U.S. stock market was 6.9%, significantly outperforming long-term government bonds at 3.6% [6][8]. - Siegel's further analysis from 1802 to 2021 shows that the longer the holding period, the narrower the range of returns for equity assets, ultimately converging towards expected returns [9][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For investors who are unable to tolerate short-term volatility, two "gentler" equity participation strategies are suggested: 1. Dividend strategy, which involves investing in high-dividend index funds to obtain relatively predictable cash flow while retaining the potential for capital appreciation [14]. 2. Target risk funds, allowing investors to choose their desired level of volatility, such as a conservative allocation of 10-25% in equities for a balanced approach [14]. - The essence of retirement investment lies in cross-cycle asset allocation, where equity assets may lag in the short term but offer superior return elasticity in the long run compared to low-risk assets [11][12].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the excitement and caution surrounding the upcoming IPO of Yushu Technology, a four-legged robot company valued over 10 billion, backed by major internet giants like Tencent and Alibaba [1][3] - The market is currently exhibiting a "stronger gets stronger" phenomenon, where external leverage is driving short-term trading, and news serves to reinforce rather than guide stock prices [4][5] - Many investors miss out on good stocks due to short upward trends followed by prolonged adjustments, as large funds prefer to "trade time for space" during periods of uncertainty [5][7] Group 2 - The key to understanding market behavior lies in recognizing that most investors focus on price trends, while actual market movements are dictated by trading behaviors of large funds [8][10] - A common misconception is that the presence of institutional investors guarantees safety; however, the level of their active participation is crucial [11][13] - Yushu Technology has strong potential, but its post-IPO performance will depend on the genuine attitude of institutional funds towards the stock [15]

- The report mentions the "All-Weather Quantitative Timing Model" which issued two risk warning signals in the latter half of last week, indicating that the market may still be under pressure in the future [7] - The market is currently in a large box oscillation pattern, with the central position or average cost around 3300-3350 [7] - The current market is in a multi-head arrangement of large-scale moving average systems, and the oscillation during the multi-head arrangement process can often be seen as a process of oscillation and accumulation [7] - The current adjustment appears after three waves of upward movement at the daily level, coinciding with the upper edge of the oscillation center, and there is a daily level top divergence and daily TD9 count, indicating a potential adjustment period of about 3 weeks based on the common 0.382 time retracement ratio characteristic [7] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: All-Weather Quantitative Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to provide risk warning signals based on market conditions and technical indicators [7] - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses various technical indicators such as the daily level top divergence and TD9 count to identify potential market adjustments. The model also considers the 0.382 time retracement ratio to estimate the adjustment period [7] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively issued risk warning signals, indicating its potential usefulness in predicting market pressure [7] Model Backtesting Results 1. **All-Weather Quantitative Timing Model**: The model issued two risk warning signals in the latter half of last week, suggesting that the market may still be under pressure [7] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - No specific quantitative factors were detailed in the provided content Factor Backtesting Results - No specific quantitative factors were detailed in the provided content