智通财经APP获悉，克而瑞地产研究发文称，2025年代建新增规模TOP20企业的新增签约建面达21926 万平方米，同比增幅16%，增速较2024年提升6个百分点，仍低于2023年。从新增规模的梯队分布来 看，已有10家企业年内新增代建规模超1000万平方米，较去年同期增加5家，按次序分别为绿城管理 (09979)、旭辉建管、润地管理、蓝城集团、金地管理、龙湖龙智造、招商建管、新城建管、远洋建 管、金建管。 代建项目新拓难度加码，但头部企业拓展的集中度进一步提升。主要得益于头部企业在2025年投拓发 力，金地管理、龙湖龙智造、新城建管同比增幅超过50%。 2025年，代建新拓规模前十集中度达到77%，较2024年增长6个百分点。行业整体延续强者恒强的趋 势，头部企业牢牢占据市场份额，其余企业突围难度较大。 具体来看，前五家企业新拓建面占比达到45%，较2024年下降2个百分点，代建头部依然占据了行业新 增规模的大部分资源;其次，5-10名的企业新拓建面占33%，较2024年增长10个百分点，11-20名企业集 中度为29%，较同期下降1个百分点。 03 签约面积断层显著 尾部企业仍在剧烈洗牌 2025年代建新 ...

一月行情展望 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 2025-12-28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 research.95579.com 2 当月强势股回顾 12月涨幅榜前20的个股中仅有2只起涨时自由流通市值在百亿上下，强势题材主要集中在商业航天，连板标 的需提防下周的月末效应 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% 图：12月涨幅榜Top20（截至12月26日） | 属性 | 名称 | 最低到最高涨幅 | | 前最低价（元） | 起涨时自由流通市值（亿） 起涨时成交额（千万） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商业航天 | 天力复合 | 251 . | 62% | 26 79 . | 37 4 20 7 . . | | 并购重组 | 胜通能源 | 211 . | 62% | 13 51 . | 6 09 16 93 . . | | 商业航天 | 西部材料 | 170 . | 65% | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector shows resilience with a slight increase in stock prices, while the overall market experiences a minor decline, indicating a potential recovery in demand and performance for leading companies in the industry [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900.50 points, down 0.23%, while the liquor sector index closed at 2228.24 points, up 0.78% [1] - Among the liquor stocks, 17 companies saw price increases, with Kweichow Moutai closing at 1402.80 CNY per share, up 0.13% [1] - Other notable stock performances include Wuliangye at 111.62 CNY (up 0.67%), Shanxi Fenjiu at 179.81 CNY (up 0.30%), Luzhou Laojiao at 122.62 CNY (up 0.41%), and Yanghe at 62.98 CNY (up 1.43%) [1] Company Summary - CITIC Securities predicts that with economic data bottoming out and stimulus policies intensifying, the second quarter of 2026 may see a stabilization and recovery in sales and performance for leading liquor companies [1] - The industry is experiencing increased differentiation, with leading companies strengthening their advantages as smaller firms exit the market; over 100 regulated liquor companies have withdrawn from the market in the first half of 2025 [1] - Leading enterprises are leveraging their financial strength and supply chain control to innovate in channels and products, reinforcing a "stronger gets stronger" dynamic that will enhance their long-term competitiveness [1]

Core Insights - New Sizer Investment has set a new high for salaries in the financial industry, offering internship positions starting at 20,000 yuan per month and annual salaries for fresh graduates starting at 500,000 yuan, with bond researchers starting at 600,000 yuan [1][11][14] - The company is recognized for its strong performance and unique value investment philosophy, which has been developed over more than 20 years by its founder, Han Guangbin [5][6][7] Company Overview - New Sizer Investment was established in Shenzhen in 2009 and is led by Han Guangbin, a pioneer in value investing in China [5][6] - The firm currently manages 12 products with a total asset size between 5 billion to 10 billion yuan, achieving impressive returns of 47.07% and 54.12% for two of its products this year [7][8] Recruitment Strategy - The recruitment strategy emphasizes hiring top talent from leading universities, specifically targeting students from the top five Chinese universities or QS top 20 institutions, with a focus on hard science and engineering majors [11][14] - The company seeks candidates who can quickly assist fund managers in research and investment strategy discussions, rather than typical interns performing menial tasks [11][14] Industry Context - The high salaries offered by New Sizer Investment contrast with the broader trend of salary reductions in banks, brokerages, and public funds, where compensation is more regulated [14][16] - The financial industry remains attractive to many due to its growth potential and the opportunity to accumulate valuable resources and experience, which can lead to diverse career paths [14][16]

Core Insights - The report indicates a clear trend in the Chinese property insurance industry shifting from scale-driven growth to efficiency-oriented development since 2024, entering a phase of high-quality growth [1][6] - The profitability of leading companies is increasing, while smaller insurers are facing significant challenges, with nearly half of the companies reporting underwriting losses [1][6] Group 1: Industry Overview - The "2025 China Insurance Industry Competitiveness Research Report" highlights that 40 out of 82 participating property insurance companies had a comprehensive cost ratio exceeding 100% in the first half of 2025, indicating that nearly half are operating at a loss [1][6] - The top three companies, People's Insurance Company of China (PIC), Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance, and China Pacific Insurance, collectively accounted for approximately 77% of the industry's total profit, reinforcing the "stronger getting stronger" competitive landscape [1][2] Group 2: Company Rankings - PIC ranked first with a core solvency adequacy ratio of 213.16%, total insurance revenue of 3,240.16 billion yuan, and a net profit of 243.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2][3] - Ping An ranked second with a core solvency adequacy ratio of 179.60%, total insurance revenue of 1,720.61 billion yuan, and a net profit of 103.66 billion yuan [2][3] - China Pacific Insurance ranked third with a core solvency adequacy ratio of 195.80%, total insurance revenue of 1,138.29 billion yuan, and a net profit of 57.33 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Emerging Competitors - Companies such as Jiulong Insurance, China Railway Property Insurance, and Dinghe Insurance have entered the top ten by focusing on specialized and niche markets [4][5] - These specialized companies generally have solvency ratios above the industry average, indicating a unique competitive advantage [5] Group 4: Challenges and Policy Environment - The report notes that the property insurance industry is facing challenges such as high claims costs from new energy vehicle insurance and natural disasters, which are pressuring the comprehensive cost ratios of many companies [6][8] - Regulatory measures introduced since 2024 aim to promote high-quality development and mitigate inefficient competition within the industry [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Shentong Express has signed a new stock option extension agreement with Alibaba, extending the exercise period to December 27, 2028, which raises uncertainties regarding future control and ownership dynamics [1][3][9] Company Summary - On November 17, Shentong Express announced the signing of the "Stock Option Extension Agreement II" with Alibaba, extending the stock option exercise period to December 27, 2028 [1][3] - The stock option price has been adjusted from RMB 16.50 per share to RMB 16.413 per share [3] - Shentong Express's stock fell by 5.87% to RMB 14.28 per share following the announcement [1] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 385.70 billion for the first three quarters of the year, a year-on-year increase of 15.17%, and a net profit of RMB 7.56 billion, up 15.81% [6] - However, the net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 28.55% to RMB 19.28 billion, attributed to increased revenue from monthly settlement customers and reduced prepayments from franchisees [6] Industry Summary - The express delivery industry is experiencing a trend of rational competition, with the State Post Bureau opposing "involution" competition [6] - In the third quarter, Shentong Express's average monthly unit price increased from RMB 1.97 to RMB 2.12, while its business volume growth slowed, with September's growth at 9.46%, trailing behind industry averages [6] - The market share of Shentong Express has remained stable at around 13%, lagging behind competitors such as Zhongtong and Yuantong [6] - The industry is expected to see a further concentration of resources and core business towards leading companies, as weaker firms face increasing pressure [7] - Shentong Express has acquired 100% of Daniao Logistics, aiming to enhance its position in the high-end market and improve logistics services [7]

Core Insights - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached a historic high of 36.74 trillion yuan as of September 2025, marking a nearly 7% increase from the end of Q2 2025 and a 14.56% increase year-on-year [1][3][4]. Fund Management Landscape - There are 165 public fund management institutions in China, including 150 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [1]. - The top two fund management companies, E Fund and Huaxia, have assets under management (AUM) exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan and 2.2 trillion yuan, respectively [1][8]. - The top ten fund managers collectively manage 15.06 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.31% of the total market size, indicating a trend of "the strong getting stronger" [6][8]. Fund Type Performance - In Q3 2025, the total scale of public funds increased by 2.35 trillion yuan, with all fund types except bond funds showing growth [4][6]. - The fastest-growing fund types were overseas investment funds, which saw a 33.18% increase, and stock funds, which grew by 25.3% [5][6]. - The total scale of stock funds reached 5.94 trillion yuan, while mixed funds reached 3.91 trillion yuan, reflecting significant growth in these categories [5][9]. Investor Behavior and Trends - There has been a notable demand for thematic ETFs and cross-border ETFs, with several funds seeing net subscriptions exceeding 10 billion units in Q3 2025 [13][14]. - Despite the overall growth, there is a significant divergence in the subscription patterns of equity funds, with some experiencing heavy redemptions as investors lock in profits [14][15]. - High-performing active equity funds also attracted net subscriptions, but their levels were lower compared to ETF products [14]. Redemption Trends - Some ETFs, particularly in sectors that had previously seen long adjustments, experienced significant redemptions as investors opted to cash out after recent performance recoveries [15]. - Notable examples include the Huaxia Sci-Tech 50 ETF and E Fund Medical ETF, which saw reductions in fund shares of 307.89 billion and 133.28 billion, respectively [15].

Core Insights - The overall asset management scale of China's public fund industry has reached 36 trillion yuan, with the top ten fund companies all surpassing one trillion yuan in management scale, indicating a trend of increasing concentration in the industry [3][5] - More than 30% of fund managers have experienced a decline in scale compared to the previous quarter, highlighting a "stronger becoming stronger, weaker becoming weaker" phenomenon [3][4] Industry Overview - The public fund industry is entering a phase of elimination, driven by stricter regulations, intensified competition, and the maturation of investors, which will squeeze the survival space for companies lacking core competitiveness [4] - The era of merely pursuing scale expansion is over, and companies must focus on sustainable excess returns, effective passive product capabilities, and enhancing investor experience to thrive [4] Competitive Landscape - As of October 29, 2025, all top ten public fund companies have crossed the one trillion yuan mark in management scale, with E Fund leading at 23,928 billion yuan, followed by Huaxia Fund at 21,508 billion yuan [5][6] - The competition among the top companies is fierce, with E Fund and Huaxia Fund forming a distinct first tier, while companies like GF Fund, Southern Fund, and Fortune Fund are vying for positions in the second tier [7] Growth Dynamics - The mid-tier companies, with management scales between 500 billion and 1 trillion yuan, are experiencing significant competition, with notable growth disparities among them [8][9] - China Universal Fund leads this tier with a growth rate of 17.32%, followed closely by Invesco Great Wall Fund at 16.35%, primarily driven by net value growth in equity funds [9] ETF Market Competition - The ETF market has become a critical battleground for medium to large fund companies, with various firms competing across multiple dimensions [10][13] - Huaxia Fund currently leads in non-monetary ETF scale at 9,037 billion yuan, but faces strong competition from E Fund, which has rapidly increased its scale [11][12] Fixed Income Opportunities - Some fund companies have seen significant growth in their fixed income plus (固收+) products, despite challenges in the traditional pure bond business [15][16] - Notably, Invesco Great Wall Fund's fixed income plus scale grew by 755 billion yuan in a single quarter, indicating a shift in investor preferences towards these products [16][17] Challenges and Risks - Companies heavily reliant on money market funds, such as China Construction Fund and Tianhong Fund, face challenges in diversifying their business and finding new growth paths [20] - Some firms are experiencing declines in traditional core business areas, particularly in the bond market, which has seen significant volatility [20][21]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is entering a critical bottoming phase due to intensive policy measures since the second half of 2021, with a projected cumulative sale of approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Policy Signals - The real estate market has been in a continuous adjustment phase since the second half of 2021, with a decline in new residential property sales. Policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been implemented, including a focus on stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][6]. Market Performance - From January to September 2025, the sales area of new residential properties was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline has narrowed by 11.6 percentage points compared to the previous year. The sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year, indicating a clear improvement trend despite remaining in negative territory [6][10]. Secondary Market Resilience - The secondary housing market has shown greater resilience, with a 10% year-on-year increase in transaction volume in 30 key cities from January to July 2025. By July, the proportion of secondary housing transactions reached 68%, a record high [6][10]. Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing price increases in new homes, while second and third-tier cities face price declines. For instance, new home prices in first-tier cities rose by 6.87% year-on-year in September 2025, marking 27 consecutive months of increases [11][13]. Investment Focus - Real estate companies are increasingly focusing their investments on core cities, with significant land acquisition activity in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu, leading to record land prices. For example, a land parcel in Shanghai was sold for 34.135 billion yuan, setting a new record for total land price in the country [13][15]. Demand Shift - The demand structure in the new housing market is shifting towards improvement needs, with larger units (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities from January to July 2025. In Beijing, units over 120 square meters made up 42% of sales [16][20]. High-End Market Dynamics - The high-end market is performing well, with significant sales in luxury properties. For instance, over 25 "sunshine plates" (properties sold out on the first day) were recorded in Shanghai, most priced above 100,000 yuan per square meter. However, this segment may face demand exhaustion due to limited overall transaction volume [19][20]. Upcoming Report - The "Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan" report will be officially released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the real estate industry [21].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a critical bottoming phase since the second half of 2021, driven by intensive policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market [1][3] - The cumulative sales of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are projected to reach approximately 5 billion square meters [1][2] Market Changes - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market has shifted, with a significant increase in the stock of existing homes, leading to first-time buyers predominantly opting for second-hand homes, while new homes are increasingly catering to improvement needs [2][5] - The sales area of new residential properties from January to September 2025 was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline has narrowed by 11.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] Policy Impact - Since the second half of 2021, the real estate market has been in a continuous adjustment phase, with a decline in new residential property sales. However, recent policies have aimed to stabilize the market [3][5] - The government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market in its work report for the 2025 National Congress, indicating a sustained commitment to policy support [3] Market Resilience - The second-hand housing market has shown greater resilience, with a 10% year-on-year increase in transaction volume in key cities from January to July 2025, and second-hand home transactions accounted for 68% of total transactions by July, a record high [5][9] - Despite the increase in transaction volume, second-hand home prices have been on a downward trend for 41 consecutive months [5] Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing a month-on-month increase in new home prices, while second and third-tier cities face price declines [10][12] - The investment strategies of real estate companies are increasingly focused on core cities, with significant competition for high-quality land parcels leading to record land prices in cities like Shanghai and Beijing [13][15] Demand Trends - Improvement demand has become the core support for the new home market, with larger unit types (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities from January to July 2025 [16][20] - High-end market performance has been notable, with significant sales in luxury projects, indicating a release of demand from high-net-worth individuals [19][20] Future Outlook - The upcoming report titled "Exploring the 'Golden Pit' of the Non-Restricted Cycle Real Estate Market" is set to be released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the industry [20]